What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 10
The NFL is starting its back nine, and the Splash Universe has some strong takes on how the action to kick off the second half of the season will go. Pulling pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports, we can hope to uncover some insight into what will happen on NFL fields in Week 10.
Last week, two teams were the main darlings of Splash Survivor players. It’s similar this time around, with two teams again receiving a combination of more than 70 percent of all entries. Survivor players are confident in those two. We’ll see if it pays off as well as it did in Week 9.
The lines are more varied than a week ago, with a few smaller than a field goal and others pushing or exceeding a touchdown, including the biggest spread of the season so far. Splash pickers throughout our platforms made their opinions on these lines known – maybe their insights can help inform us of what’s to come.
If you want to see how the Splash universe thought Week 9 would shake out, you can find that here.
Everybody Believes In…
The Cincinnati Bengals.
After a bumpy beginning to their drive, the Bengals have reversed course and seem like the Cincinnati of the 2020s. Four-straight wins have the Bengals positioned at 5-3 and back in the hunt for another trip to the playoffs.
They host the Texans this week, a team that has had great moments of its own in the first half of the campaign. C.J. Stroud has hoarded headlines and is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year – he orchestrated the game-winning drive in the final 46 seconds of last week’s face-off with the Bucs to cap off his 470-yard, five-touchdown performance in the 39-37 thriller.
That’s not clouding Splash users’ judgment, though. The Bengals are one of the most popular picks in Splash Survivor contests with 30.26 percent of entries aimed at them. That’s the second-most of any team this week and about 23 percent more of the population than the third received. Only 0.09 percent of Survivor entries are attached to the Texans, which is the sixth-fewest among the 28 teams active this week.
If that’s not painting a clear enough picture for you, then maybe the 75 percent of Splash pickers who think the Bengals will cover the 6.5-point spread will. That’s the second-most lopsided reaction to any line this week. Not only are Splash users convinced Cincinnati will win, but they will be shocked if the final margin is within a handful.
Nobody Believes In…
The Green Bay Packers.
For the second week in a row, the Packers hold the unwanted distinction of the team nobody believes in. This is despite a 20-3 victory over the Rams a week ago, validating the mere 28 percent of Splash pickers who thought Green Bay would cover that game’s 3.5-point spread.
The naysayers are back in Week 10. This time, the Packers are 3.5-point underdogs in their road trip to Pittsburgh, and 79 percent of Splash users think the Steelers will cover. That’s the most confident the Splash universe is of any favorite covering its spread this week.
The Steelers are also one of the more popular picks in Splash NFL Survivor contests. Pittsburgh received 3.31 percent of all entries this week, which pales in comparison to the big dogs but still makes it the fourth-most common pick of the week. Meanwhile, just 0.23 percent of entries have hooked themselves to the Packers, the eighth-smallest percentage of Week 10.
On Sunday, we’ll find out if the Splash universe’s dismissal of the Packers this week is right after being so wrong about them last time around. Maybe this is why they play the games.
Possible Survivor Value Pick
The Bills are coming off of a tough loss at Cincinnati and have been on the wrong side in three of their last five times out. Now 5-4, plenty of people have had some harsh words for Buffalo lately.
There seems to be a trend to this team, though: when the Bills are a totally different team at home.
At Highmark Stadium, the Bills are 4-0 this season, featuring a 28-point clipping of the high-flying Dolphins. At all other stadiums, they are 1-4, including defeats to the Patriots and Jets. When away from Orchard Park, Josh Allen’s completion percentage dips from 75.0 percent to 67.1 percent and his rating subtracts from 117.5 to 79.3.
Fortunately for the Bills, their game this week is at home, and Splash users seem aware of their dichotomous play dependent on the clay. Buffalo attracted 73 percent of pickers to predict that it will cover the 7.5-point line for its date with the Broncos this Monday, the fourth-heaviest support given to any team against the spread this week. That’s quite the reaction to the second-thickest line of the week.
Splash Survivor players aren’t as keen. The Bills are the third-most popular pick across our contests, but their 7.23 percent is a far cry from the attention coming to the Cowboys and Bengals. If what Splash pickers against the spread are saying about this matchup is true, then this is a great opportunity to slide through to Week 11 with a relatively small number of friends.
Too Close to Call
The Saints have to traverse the entire Mississippi River to reach the destination of their Week 10 contest against the Vikings, but Splash users have no idea if it will be worth their while.
Less than 1 percent of Splash Survivor entries picked one of the teams in this game, with the Vikings bringing in 0.68 percent and the Saints sustaining 0.26 percent. New Orleans is a 2.5-point favorite despite being the road team, and Splash pickers didn’t like that – only 41 percent said that the Saints will cover. That makes the Vikings one of two underdogs, along with the Raiders, that a majority of Splash users went for this week. But with a line so small, it’s tough to view them as a proper underdog. Who knows how many of the 59 percent that picked the Vikings against the spread think Minnesota will win?
The Vikings are one of the hottest teams in pro football with a potent passing attack, but the Saints have forced the most interceptions of any defense in the NFL and are holding opposing quarterbacks to below 200 yards passing per game. There isn’t a strong consensus on who will come out on top in Minneapolis. And with the recent history between these two, there are plenty of reasons for you to tune in for this one.
The Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites in their home challenge with the Commanders this Sunday, and while it seems that the Splash universe expects Seattle to win, it’s less assured than usual with a spread this wide.
Almost 60 percent of Splash users think the Seahawks will cover those 6.5 points, the smallest amount of support any favorite of 3.5 points or more obtained from Splash pickers against the spread. Seattle is tied for sixth among the most-picked teams in Splash Survivor, but that’s with just 2.69 percent of entries in its corner. That’s less than the Bears got, and they’re the Bears.
Sam Howell has thrown for 325 yards or more in each of his last two outings, and all but two of the Commanders’ nine score lines so far this season have been within one possession. The Seahawks are on the other side of a 34-point beatdown via the Ravens.
Of all the big favorites this week, Splash users are putting Seattle on upset alert.
The 16.5 points the books have issued to separate the Cowboys and Giants ahead of their second meeting of the season is the biggest spread of the 2023 NFL campaign. Given that Dallas blanked New York, 40-0, in the first matchup and the Giants have since lost their first and second-string quarterbacks to injury, your eyes should already be beginning to flutter with boredom.
If that’s not enough, take into account how the Splash community views this pairing. Three out of every five Splash pickers chose the Cowboys to cover the largest spread of the year, and Dallas is the most common Survivor selection this week with 40.67 percent of all entries coming its way.
You won’t find anyone – other than the 0.05 percent of Survivor players who are riding and probably dying with the Giants this week – who thinks New York will keep this one competitive, let alone pull it out. There are other games you should watch instead.
It used to mean more when the Patriots and Colts shared a field than it does now, but this remains a key rivalry for each franchise that goes back longer than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. This Sunday, these two will meet for the 84th time, and the pick data is all over the place for it.
The Patriots have 2.03 percent of Splash Survivor entries in their pocket. That’s not a huge amount, but given that New England is 2-7 and it’s good enough to be the eighth-most popular pick of the week, it feels outsized. The Colts have just 0.53 percent of Survivor entries in comparison.
But Splash pickers against the spread feel differently. Two-thirds of them think Indianapolis will cover the 1.5-point spread, leaving just one-third to go for the home underdogs against a line small enough to effectively be a push.
I don’t know what caused this confusion. Survivor data and picks against the spread generally align with one another. That’s why we call it a weird outlier.
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