The Keys to Every Wild Card Weekend Clash

Making the playoffs is great. In the preseason, it is the achievable goal put forth by all 32 NFL franchises. Only 14 earn the honor, and it’s a sigh of relief for those that qualify for the club. But it’s never enough.

Once you get a taste of the playoffs, simply being there doesn’t satisfy your hunger. To be one-and-done is akin to never being there at all but with the added bonuses of pain and anguish. Nothing short of a Super Bowl success will truly quell a grumbling stomach, but triumphing in an all-or-nothing situation is at least something.

It’s going to take something different for each of the 12 teams appearing in this Wild Card Weekend to live to see the Divisional Round. In a single-elimination format, it’s not about being the best or the baddest - it’s about exploiting the matchup in front of you more effectively than your opponent. Luck also helps, but I’m not lazy enough to pretend that’s all there is to it.

Every game has its points of emphasis. These are the keys for Wild Card Weekend.

No. 7 Steelers at No. 2 Bills

Two of the hotter teams in the NFL, the Bills and Steelers arrive in the postseason riding five and three-game win streaks, respectively. Their late runs salvaged each of their seasons, but they can’t both continue now.

The Steelers spent most of the season struggling on the offensive end. Neither Kenny Pickett nor Mitch Trubisky proved to be the answer, but the introduction of Mason Rudolph at the tail end of the campaign has been a boon for Pittsburgh. In three games as starter, Rudolph has revitalized a once-dead passihg attack, completing better than 74 percent of his passing attempts and throwing for 716 yards. This has opened up the run game for Najee Harris to take advantage of, too. For the Steelers to accomplish an upset in Orchard Park, Rudolph, Harris, and the offensive line have to be on their A games.

Rudolph was one piece of the shift head coach Mike Tomlin instituted for the final few contests of the regular season, which played into the mantra of “scared money don’t make no money” that the coach instilled in his team when it needed to hear it most. The Steelers will have to put that motto to good use on Sunday, especially with T.J. Watt sidelined. At least Minkah Fitzpatrick slated to compete this weekend.

Josh Allen is the engine that makes Buffalo go. The Bills live and die by his arm and legs, and for them to have a comfortable weekend, they need him to do something he’s had trouble with in 2023-24: take care of the football.

Allen has been prolific in the turnover area this season, but not in the way you want. His 18 interceptions was the second-most of any quarterback in the league this season, and his interception rate of 3.1 was tied for third-worst, too. Add in the lost fumbles, and Allen has handed opponents the ball 22 times. 

In Buffalo’s 11 wins this season, Allen averaged fewer than one pick per game. In the team’s six defeats, he chucked 1.5 per outing. In the six losses, he also lost three of his four fumbles, a far cry from losing one fumble in three across the 11 victories.

Part of Allen’s game is taking risks, and he shouldn’t stop that now - it’s part of what has brought him and the Bills to where they are. But the numbers show the impact of his turnovers, and his team will be in a much better position this weekend if Pittsburgh’s secondary doesn’t rack up receptions.

My Pick: Buffalo 24, Pittsburgh 14

I expect Pittsburgh to slow the game down as much as they can and keep it close for a while, but the Steelers ultimately don’t have the offense to keep pace with the Bills. Watt is a huge loss, and without him bearing down on Allen, the quarterback should be able to hold his turnovers to a minimum, at least relatively.

No. 6 Dolphins at No. 3 Chiefs

It wasn’t the end to the season that Miami dreamed of. The Dolphins dropped their last two contests to slip to the AFC’s No. 6 seed, and now they have to go to Arrowhead Stadium and deal with frigid conditions.

Kansas City is expected to experience horrifically cold weather this weekend, with the wind chill possible to hit -30 during the game. Much will be made of the Dolphins coming from a warmer climate, but I don’t see it harming Miami horribly - these are all professionals, some of whom played college football north of the Mason-Dixon Line or were on a northern NFL team previously, plus the three other teams in Miami’s division are in the Northeast. It’s not as though the Chiefs are regularly practicing in temperatures in the deep negatives.

What will win or lose the Dolphins the game is their ability to throw the ball downfield. Miami averaged the second-most yards per play (6.5) and net yards gained per pass attempt (7.6) in the league this season. As the Chiefs know well, Tyreek Hill is elite in such situations. 

The problem is, Kansas City’s defense is one of the best in the NFL at limiting its opponent’s big plays. The 4.9 net yards gained per pass attempt that the Chiefs allow is the third-fewest in the league, and they’re in the top five for yards allowed per play as well (4.7).

Something has to give, and whichever side gets the better of the other in this aspect of the game is likely to win it. Of course, the Dolphins defense has to keep Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in relative check, but Miami’s offense has been the team’s driving force all season long. In this way, the weather could be a factor, because passing accuracy in NFL games played in freezing temperatures drops by 2 percent and per-game passing yardage dips by 5 percent. In weather as cold as predicted for Saturday night, those numbers could be even bigger.

My Pick: Kansas City 27, Miami 21

I expect a motivated Hill, and I expect him to get his. But a combination of the weather harming Miam’s passing attack and Kansas City being an unfortunate matchup for the road team, I don’t think it will be enough. But most notably, I predict a lot of miserably cold people struggling to shake the shiver. At least the locals will have a win to celebrate afterward.

No. 5 Browns at No. 4 Texans

It came down to the wire for Houston. The team needed a win in Indianapolis and some help from Tennessee, but for the first time since 2019, the Texans are hosting a playoff game. 

Coming to town is one of the most stifling defenses the NFL has to offer. Cleveland’s defense leads the league in opponent score percentage (24.8) and opponent yards per offensive play (4.6). The Browns are especially prolific at prohibiting the pass, and while they are still solid at stopping the run, that is where Houston is more likely to find success. 

Of course, the Texans will need their star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to do what he has done all season for them. But the key to outdoing this Cleveland defense is on the ground. When the Browns have allowed 114 rushing yards or more they are 2-5. When they hold opponents below that threshold, they are 9-1. If Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce can get it going, Houston could handle the Cleveland curtain. 

Since Joe Flacco went from his couch to Cleveland, the team’s offense has been a different beast. The quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his five starts this season and has brought to life a passing attack that was previously on its deathbed. Amari Cooper and David Njoku in particular have been feasting, and how strong the connections between them and their quarterback are will be vital for Cleveland’s survival. 

Flacco has the most playoff experience of any quarterback starting in this postseason. He is currently tied with Tom Brady for the most road playoff victories in a career. How he performs this Saturday will mean everything for the Browns. 

My Pick: Cleveland 31, Houston 20

I simply think that the Browns are the better team. Their defense has been a juggernaut all season long, and the injection of Flacco’s steady hand has entirely changed their offense. As difficult as it is to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone within the span of a few weeks, I expect Cleveland to relatively repeat the 36-22 victory over Houston from late December.

No. 7 Packers at No. 2 Cowboys

Green Bay snuck into the final NFC playoff spot with a three-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Now, its reward is a trip to Jerry World for a date with the Cowboys.

The success of Green Bay’s passing attack has been a major determining factor in their success game by game. In contests in which the Packers have tossed for 207 yards or more, they are 9-2, a stark contrast from their 0-6 record when they failed to hit that mark. 

It isn’t technically Jordan Love’s rookie year, but it effectively is given his previous role as quarterback-in-waiting. The Packers need him to remain calm and not let the moment get too big for him this weekend. They don’t need him to dominate the game, just manage it. If he has a poor performance, then it will be very tough for the Packers to keep pace. 

Dallas has been one of the best teams in the league at taking care of the football. It’s 16 total turnovers was tied for the second-fewest in the league, and Dak Prescott’s team needs to keep that going this weekend. The Cowboys have advantages over the Packers in most aspects of the game - mistakes like interceptions or fumbles are how favorites fall in upsets. 

No quarterback in the league has been blitzed as much as Love (215). Dallas isn’t the most blitz-happy team in the league (28.5 percent), but it is in the top half, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike McCarthy’s team dialed up even more than usual. How effectively the Cowboys can get to the quarterback and impact Green Bay’s offensive rhythm will go a long way in determining who advances to the Divisional Round.

My Pick: Dallas 23, Green Bay 21

I think the Packers will keep it close and that this game will be decided late in the fourth quarter. The Packers have been one of the hottest teams in the league, and I don’t think they’re going down without a fight. But ultimately, the Dallas defense is too tough, and it will keep Green Bay in check just enough for the home team to take it.

No. 6 Rams at No. 3 Lions

Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game in more than 30 years, and the storyline of Jared Goff versus Matthew Stafford is a juicy one. No matter what happens, the headlines write themselves.

The Lions are susceptible through the air. They allowed 247.4 passing yards per game in the regular season, the sixth-most in the league, a scary stat in the modern NFL but especially when the Rams are opposite of you. 

This season, Puka Nacua broke a 63-year NFL record for the most receiving yards as a rookie, plus set the new standard for rookie receptions in a campaign. If Detroit finds a way to shut him down, then it will have a much easier time reaching the Divisional Round. If not, then the Lions will be vulnerable to the upset.

Where the Lions defense does excel is in pressuring the quarterback. Detroit sits atop the NFL in hurry percentage (11.2), quarterback knockdown percentage (12.2), and quarterback pressure percentage (28.2). The team’s front seven has to play to its strength and make Stafford’s day a long one. That is its recipe for restricting the Rams. 

But it’s not just Nacua and the aerial attack that Detroit has to worry about. The Rams also grew on the ground as the season wore on. Through Week 11, the Rams averaged 93.3 rushing yards per game. Since, they have averaged 145.6 rushing yards per contest. That’s quite the jump, and at this point, this offense is far from one dimensional. The Detroit defense has to contain at least one piece of that puzzle on Sunday night.

My Pick: Los Angeles 35, Detroit 27

How multidimensional the Rams offense has become in the later part of the season is too compelling for me to ignore, and I think it’s poised to perform well this weekend. Sorry, Lions fans, but the playoff losing streak will extend to 10, and 32 years is about to be 33 and still counting.

No. 5 Eagles at No. 4 Buccaneers 

It’s been a tale of two seasons for both teams, but reversed. The Eagles were 10-1 but are 1-5 since, which cost them the NFC East title. The Bucs began 4-7, but they finished with five wins in six and as NFC South champs. What will that mean for their get-together?

Tampa Bay is one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league; its 40.1 blitz percentage is the third-highest in the NFL. That hasn’t necessarily translated into hurrying and pressuring opposing quarterbacks, but the Bucs are in the top 10 for sacks (48). The Eagles are above average at keeping their quarterback upright in the backfield, but if Tampa Bay’s willingness to bring bodies can break through Philadelphia’s offensive line, then that could be a real problem.

Philadelphia’s passing attack has taken a nosedive in recent weeks. Hurts and company failed to put up more than 185 yards through the air in three of their final four contests of the campaign, a sharp decline from the 234.3 yards per game they were passing for in the first 13 games of the year. But that is the part of Tampa Bay’s defense that is most vulnerable - the team allowed 248.9 passing yards per game in the regular season, the fourth-most in the NFL. The Eagles need to exploit this weakness effectively, because for as poorly as the Bucs did against the pass, they did about as well against the run (95.3 yards allowed per game, fifth-best in the NFL).

The Eagles have the talent to win the SuperBowl, let alone last longer than Wild Card Weekend. But something funky is going on in Philly. The team has been totally out of sorts for weeks now, particularly on the defensive end, and finished the regular season with two losses to lackluster opposition. Those weren’t meaningless meetings, either; the Eagles wouldn’t be traveling this weekend if they had gone differently. 

I’m not in the team’s locker room, so I can’t say exactly what is happening, but it’s evident that a shift occurred. All of a sudden, there are questions swirling around Nick Sirianni and his coaching staff’s future, and Philadelphia fans and media are not known for their forgiveness. If Sirianni has lost the team, then it’s over.

My Pick: Tampa Bay 24, Philadelphia 20

A lot has changed since the Eagles beat the Bucs in Week 3, 25-11 . I have no idea what exactly is wrong with Philadelphia, but whatever it is, it’s a bad omen. Conventional wisdom tells me to follow the hot hand and in this instance, that’s Tampa Bay.