2024 PGA Championship Preview: Correlated Courses, Tiers Suggestions, and One & Done Picks

Once known as Glory’s Last Shot, the May playing of the PGA Championship elevates the intrigue as the second major championship of the 2024 schedule. 

For this week’s running of the PGA Championship, a full field of 156 golfers will head to Louisville, Kentucky, to do battle with Valhalla Golf Club. 

Stretching out past 7,600 yards from the tips, this par-71 Nicklaus design is one of the longer courses these pros will play all season. It’s hosted other notable events such as the 2000 and 2014 PGA Championships as well as the 2008 Ryder Cup. 

Rory McIlroy took home the hardware during the 2014 playing at Valhalla and it remains his most recent major championship triumph. McIlroy arrives off back-to-back wins, just like in 2014. Is history repeating itself? 

While we’ve seen this venue in the past, the course underwent some renovations in 2021 with the most notable change being the switch from bentgrass fairways to Zeon Zoysia. 

As you’ll see in the quotes section below, the off-the-tee challenge is straightforward. With seven of the par 4s measuring over 460 yards, you pull driver and you pull it often. 

Offline misses will be gobbled up in unpredictable 4-inch rough. Without full access to run the ball up to the greens, many of those missed fairways will turn into scrambling holes with no chance of hitting the green in regulation. 

Another piece of the demand on approach is the fact the green sizes average just 5,000 square feet  which puts it only behind Pebble Beach and Harbour Town in terms of smallest green sizes this year. 

The challenge of this golf course is really from tee-to-green and it’s not a good week to be relying solely on the flat stick. 

Quotes

Jordan Spieth: “It's a big golf course. Obviously a premium on hitting it in the fairway. The greens are small and there's not really a lot of areas to run shots up on to the green. So if you do miss the fairway in the rough, you're kind of playing to where the easiest up-and-down is versus really trying to hit the green.” 

Max Homa: “It's big. It's very long… Obviously it won't be as firm as last year but kind of a similar type vibe. Need to drive the ball well and hit your mid to long irons really good. But it's in awesome shape. So it should be a fun week.”

Justin Thomas: “There's not a lot of different ways to play the golf course. For the most part you know if it's a par-4 or -5 you're just grabbing a driver when you get to the tee and you're just hoping you hit the fairway, and then you're probably going to hit somewhere between a 5- and an 8-iron into the green.” 

Scottie Scheffler: “I think the major championships have leaned into trying to be the toughest tests. I think at a lot of major championship golf courses it eliminates a lot of the shorter hitters out here, with how long the golf courses are and how firm they try and get them for majors, it's extremely challenging for a shorter hitter to be able to compete.” 

Quote Summary: Drive it long and straight and dial in the mid- to long irons this week. Based on the weather that hits the course, you may or may not need to be long off the tee but you certainly need to have some confidence with the driver in hand. 

Correlated Courses

I typically run historical performance at a course and compare it with every other venue played across the PGA Tour schedule. That’s not possible with a course like Valhalla which hasn’t been played since 2014. 

However, I can look at similar course characteristics and find the courses with the most overlap. That gives us the following courses as potential pointers. 

Augusta National
Quail Hollow Club
Memorial Park
TPC Craig Ranch
PGA Championship course rotation

We are looking at beefy, driver-heavy layouts with bentgrass greens. 

The five names that show the largest boost over their baseline on these courses are Stephan Jaeger, Viktor Hovland, Kurt Kitayama, Tommy Fleetwood, and Aaron Rai. 

Steady striking is the name of the game with this five pack of golfers and that fits with the narrative from above with players really emphasizing ball-striking at Valhalla. 

Of course we need to check the weather before finalizing our picks this week. There is some rain in the lead-up to the event and here is the forecast for the tournament days. 

Thursday (Round 1): Sunny with a high of 79 degrees. Winds at 6 to 15 MPH. 

Friday (Round 2): Afternoon showers likely with a high of 72 degrees. Winds at 10 to 22 MPH. 

Saturday (Round 3): Sunny with a high of 81 degrees. Winds at 6 to 16 MPH.

Sunday (Round 4): Sunny with a high of 85 degrees. Winds at 6 to 16 MPH. 

Early week rain should soften the course a bit but a sunny weekend could provide a more fiery test down the stretch. 

Tiers

In this section, I am going to open the Splash Sports app and give my initial reactions to seeing each tier for the first time. 

Tier 1: There should be a heavy split between Scheffler and Rory in this top tier. They deserve all that attention but grabbing Xander and Rahm could provide a lot of leverage if the top duo disappoints or if Xander or Rahm go on to win. 

Tier 2: This is a juicy tier as you have Wyndham Clark who has shown up big time in the main events this year but you also have heavy hitting Bryson DeChambeau who has played well on similar courses in the past. Hideki Matsuyama is playing very well in the lead-up to this week but he was also an 11th-hour WD last week which is obviously a concern. Max Homa has finally gotten the heavy weight off his shoulder with some recent big finishes in majors after struggling in the big events to open his career. We aren’t even close to done with possible picks here as Russell Henley has been one of the most consistent golfers this season, Matt Fitzpatrick is a proven major winner and Sahith Theegala has showcased big-finish potential now that his driver is more in control. I haven’t even talked about fan favorite Tommy Fleetwood or local boy, Justin Thomas. Talk about a wide-open tier. 

Tier 3: My eyes quickly gravitate to the big hitters like Tony Finau and Cam Young but Sam Burns and Adam Scott are also very viable options. If the course ends up rewarding short game more then Alex Noren, Cam Smith, and Brian Harman become very good picks. 

Tier 4: Spieth is the obvious fan favorite from Tier 4 but he’s been less than his best in 2024. Dean Burmester has three worldwide wins since late November but will that translate to a major championship? It never has in the past, with no top 10s on his major resume. Talor Gooch has a lot of talk to back up, will that be too much pressure for him? Corey Conners and Adam Schenk are both playing steady golf right now so that may be where I end up clicking. Harris English is an interesting darkhorse, especially playing in this part of the country which is very comfortable for him. 

Tier 5: This is the easiest game theory pivot as Brooks Koepka will likely be heavily, and I mean very heavily, clicked in this tier. He deserves some of that love but when you factor in expected ownership, he will be overowned. Names like Byeong Hun An, Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka, and Min Woo Lee provide a ton of top-5 equity but will be much lower owned compared to Koepka. 

Tier 6: Oh how the might have fallen with Dustin Johnson landing in Tier 6 and still not standing out as a must-pick option. I have DJ sitting at 45th in expected top-10 rate this week which is solid for this tier but it’s in the same ballpark as Patrick Reed, Adam Hadwin, Kurt Kitayama, and Matthieu Pavon. 

I hope these initial gut reactions will help you narrow down your search. 

One & Done Strategy

Turning our attention toward the Splash Sports One & Done contests, we have another major on our hands which means another rare chance to fire at LIV golfers. They are only One & Done options four times a year, so it can be a good idea to cash in while you can and save your big name Tour stars for the remaining regular season or playoff events. 

With three PGA Championship wins already on his resume, Brooks Koepka will surely be a popular pick. He arrives with a win in his most recent start, as well. 

Other notable LIVers near the top of the board include Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Cam Smith, Tyrrell Hatton, and Bryson DeChambeau. 

Rahm and Koepka would be my two favorite choices but if you can analyze your league picks then maybe you can tell which of them will be more popular in your pool and choose the lower clicked golfer yourself. 

Outside of the LIV options, I would heavily consider Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Xander Schauffele. 

Looking for an even more contrarian option? You could consider an out-of-form Viktor Hovland or maybe a Nicklaus specialist in Collin Morikawa. 

Good luck in all your contests this week.

If you’re looking for something to play in, come join the $10K PGA One & Done on Splash Sports starting with this week's PGA Championship. Pick two golfers each tournament for the rest of the season, but once you use them, you lose 'em.

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Josh Culp is a seasoned fantasy golf analyst with over a decade of experience in the field. His passion for statistics helps navigate the complexities of fantasy golf while separating the signal from the noise. Formerly on Rotoworld, NBC Sports, and Golf Channel, you can follow him @futureoffantasy on X (formerly known as Twitter).