2024 U.S. Open Preview: Correlated Courses, Tiers Suggestions, and One & Done Picks

The third major championship of the season is upon us, and it's sure to be a special one. The 2024 U.S. Open returns to the historic Pinehurst No. 2, a course that has hosted more golf championships than any other course in America. 

Pinehurst No. 2 rewards discipline and course management. Designed by Donald Ross, this masterpiece in the sandhills of North Carolina is known for its intricate greens and lack of traditional rough. 

With average fairway widths that sit between 35 and 45 yards, the course is far from tight, but even landing in the fairway doesn’t guarantee an easy second shot. Drives that do miss the fairway will be subject to the whims of the sandy, native area 'rough,' making the quality of the lie unpredictable.

What makes the approach shots so challenging? You can start with the pure course length. This par 70 stretches past 7,500 yards which means plenty of mid- and long-iron approaches. Next you have to factor in the turtleback nature of many of the green complexes that repel less-than-perfect approach shots and funnel them into run-off areas. Last you have the agronomy factor of firm and fast soil, providing a unique test when it comes to gauging ball contact and spin control. 

The challenges from tee-to-green can be summarized quickly by looking at the last time Pinehurst hosted the U.S. Open (2014). The field averaged a generous 70% of fairways but managed just 57% GIR from there. 

With lots of missed greens, it may be tempting to heavily weigh around-the-green skill when handicapping the field. However, it’s important to remember the unique nature of Pinehurst No. 2 means that golfers will be challenged with a different variety of scrambling shots. 

Lastly, we can talk about the greens. I already mentioned the infamous turtleback nature of the greens, a term you’ll likely hear plenty of by week’s end. It means that precision on approach is even more important because small misses can be amplified. On top of that, the bermudagrass greens are incredibly speedy and sloped. 

Don’t take my word for it, though, let’s listen to what some of the golfers have said about the course. 

Quotes

Wyndham Clark on the green speeds: “They are extremely fast. If they get any firmer and faster, the greens, I mean, they'd be borderline. They already are borderline.”

Webb Simpson on the greens: “They're pretty similar to '14 from what I remember. I'm using 3-wood, which I never used throughout the year. But I did it in '14. I saw somebody doing it, they made it look really easy. I tried it. Put it in play that week. I haven't done it since the 2014 U.S. Open.

Already I'm realizing it's easy. I got a lesson from Chesson Hadley. He's really good at it. It's hard to have consistent contact chipping the ball because every lie around these greens, everywhere you go, side, front, it doesn't matter, it's into the green. You chip five balls you're probably going to chunk one of them.”

Bubba Watson in 2014 talking about the blind shots: “So for me the tee shots, there's a few blind tee shots. There's a few blind shots into the green. Around here it's hard to visualize some of the shots that I want to hit, and so for me it's difficult.”

Phil Mickelson in 2014 talking about the rough: “This golf course is a course where I get a similar feeling that I get at Augusta where I don't have to be perfect. I can miss shots. I can miss greens and still get up and down. I always have a chance. There's not the hack-it-out-rough. It is challenging. There are difficult shots, but they're manageable and hittable if you pull them off.”

Quote Summary: Many times at majors these quotes are filled with golfers talking about the raw length of the course. At Pinehurst, people talk more about unique course characteristics and the tricky greens. 

Correlated Courses

For this section I will be looking at similar course characteristics to find the courses with the most overlap. That gives us the following courses as potential pointers. 

Augusta National
Quail Hollow Club
Memorial Park
Bay Hill
Muirfield Village
Colonial
U.S. Open course rota

We are looking at lengthy layouts with tough scoring and speed greens. Bonus points for having bermuda greens. 

The five names that show the largest boost over their baseline on these courses are Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Collin Moriakwa, and Webb Simpson. 

Simpson is so far from his peak form but him showing up on the list does give us a good glimpse into the kind of golf that works well at Pinehurst. None of these names rely on power as a key asset. 

What about weather this week? 

Thursday (Round 1): Sunny with a high of 90 degrees. Winds at 7 to 19 MPH. 

Friday (Round 2): Sunny with a high of 97 degrees. Winds at 7 to 17 MPH. 

Saturday (Round 3): Sunny with a high of 93 degrees. Winds at 9 to 22 MPH. 

Sunday (Round 4): Sunny with a high of 92 degrees. Winds at 8 to 21 MPH. 

The early-week reports are saying the greens are already borderline and without any rain in the forecast, we should be in for a crispy challenge this week at Pinehurst. 

Tiers

In this section, I am going to open the Splash Sports app and give my initial reactions to seeing each tier for the first time. 

Tier 1: It’s Scottie’s world and we’re all just living in it. If you pick anyone else then you will certainly be contrarian. 

Tier 2: This group of golfers is full of proven winners that are not exactly firing on all cylinders. That includes vegas favorites Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas. Right behind them are Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Patrick Cantlay, and Tyrrell Hatton. It’s easy to pick holes in any of these picks but all of them have big-finish potential.  

Tier 3: Defending champ Wyndham Clark headlines the tier but he was quoted in his Monday presser saying, “Really I'm trying to gain some momentum for the rest of the season. I know that maybe sounds like low expectations for the week, but honestly I'd love to just gain some momentum.” Names like Sepp Straka, Dean Burmester, and Byeong Hun An have really upped their game in 2024 but don’t exactly have a proven track record in majors. Other names in this tier that do have better resumes in majors include Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, and Brian Harman. 

Tier 4: This tier is loaded with standout iron players with a history of playing well on classical courses. It’s a lot of boom-or-bust options and I’d say all 10 are worthy of consideration. 

Tier 5: Brooks Koepka has two U.S. Open titles to his name and he’s landed top-5 finishes in three other tries. It’s safe to say that he’ll be the heavy favorite in this tier. We shouldn’t completely overlook Dustin Johnson here or Cameron Young as both are proven major contenders in their own right.  

Tier 6: This large pile of stragglers includes Adrian Meronk who has been very consistent since joining LIV early in the year. In also includes the last champ at Pinehurst, Martin Kaymer. He’s far from his old self in terms of playing form. Other notables in tier six include big-game hunter Will Zalatoris, steady Thomas Detry, surging youngsters like Akshay Bhatia or Austin Eckroat, or legends of the game like Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Personally I would hone in on Zalatoris, Detry, Eckroat, Meronk, or Bhatia. 

I hope these initial gut reactions will help you narrow down your search. To make your picks for a chance at $25K in guaranteed cash, join this contest on Splash Sports.

One & Done Strategy

Turning our attention toward the Splash Sports One & Done contests, another major championship presents a chance to utilize the LIV golfers if you can. They are only One & Done options four times a year, so it can be a good idea to cash in while you can and save your big name Tour stars for the remaining regular season or playoff events. 

Jon Rahm withdrew last week in Houston with a foot injury and has since withdrawn from this week's U.S. Open. That leaves Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, or Tyrrell Hatton as the three LIV golfers I would heavily consider this week. 

If none of those names tickle your fancy then PGA Tour members Scottie Scheffler, Xander Scahuffele, Rory McIlroy, or Collin Morikawa would be top of the list options in this monster prize pool event. 

In the next tier for me would be Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, or Patrick Cantlay but anyone beyond that is probably getting too cute in a one-and-done format. 

Good luck in all your contests this week.

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Josh Culp is a seasoned fantasy golf analyst with over a decade of experience in the field. His passion for statistics helps navigate the complexities of fantasy golf while separating the signal from the noise. Formerly on Rotoworld, NBC Sports, and Golf Channel, you can follow him @futureoffantasy on X (formerly known as Twitter).