Six Sides in Flux Before Bowl Season

Over the course of 23 days this winter, 40 bowl games, two national semifinals, and one national championship game will ration the 50 racks that Splash is separating among the biggest brains this bowl season. If you top the charts, you”ll be reporting an additional $7,500 to the IRS on your 2024 tax returns.

The Splash $50K CFB Bowl Pick X Bonanza is open now, and top 50 finishers will find their wallet fatter come the bowl season’s conclusion. The docket has been divided into five slates with differing point values, plus a Best Pick wrinkle that gives you the power to capitalize on your confidence. It’s simple: make the correct selections, pile up points, and the money will follow.

You may think you know these teams, with 12 or 13 data points per side available for evaluation, but this isn’t your father’s college football anymore. Not only has the coaching carousel been fully operational for weeks, but the transfer portal offers its own twist. Some big fish have already hopped in the pond.

Teams missing head coaches and impact players can’t be inherently trusted to replicate their regular season performances. Taking these circumstances into account could be the difference between cash or consolation.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes were undefeated through 11 games of the season. Then Michigan happened. Rather than the College Football Playoff, Ohio State finds itself corralled to the Cotton Bowl opposite to Missouri. It’s not where the team wanted to see itself this winter, and it appears as though Columbus isn’t where Kyle McCord wants to see himself next fall.

The quarterback entered the transfer portal earlier this month after his starting position seemingly couldn’t be promised for next season. While players who have entered the portal are not banned by rule from playing for their school in a bowl game, I wouldn’t bet on McCord seeing the field in Arlington

That puts Ohio State in a bit of a pickle under center. There’s Devin Brown, who has thrown for fewer than 200 yards the entire season, and Lincoln Kienholz, the only other QB to see the field for a single play this year.  The quarterback cupboard is bare for Ryan Day.

Joining McCord in the portal is running back Chip Traynum, who served an important complementary role for the Buckeyes in 2023. That’s two sizable subtractions from the Ohio State offense, lending extra help to an already capable Missouri defense. The Buckeyes still have the talent to win this game, but take note that their offense will not be the same as the one you’ve watched all year.

Oklahoma

Dillon Gabriel was the main man in Norman all season long, but he’s played his last game as a Sooner. In 2024, Gabriel will be suiting up for Oregon. Oklahoma needs a new signal caller, for the Alamo Bowl and into the future.

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The other quarterback to take snaps this season for Oklahoma is freshman Jackson Arnold. He recorded a strong 11-for-11 passing performance against Arkansas State on Sept. 2, but he hasn’t featured much otherwise. Arkansas State is not Arizona, and eyeballs multiply from non-conference to bowl season.

The Sooners are also down their offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby, who took the head coaching job at Mississippi State in November. Those are two massive losses to an offense that was Oklahoma’s strong suit this season.

What offense will the Wildcats see in San Antonio? Will it be the one that averaged 43.2 points per game and better than 500 yards per contest, or a shell of its former self? That’s something for Brent Venables to figure out and something for you to take into account when making your picks.

Oregon State

What was an excellent season for Oregon State on the field turned sour toward the end. In the last Civil War as co-conference collaborators, the Beavers remained in their dams while the Ducks took flight. We learned later that the week leading up to the ranked rivalry showdown was an internal mess in Corvallis.

Head coach and former player Jonathan Smith ditched Oregon State for Michigan State in a manner that upset fans, players, and neutrals and helped derail what could have been a very special season. Instead, the Beavers went 8-4, did not get to play for the Pac-12 title, and are bound for El Paso for a date with Notre Dame.

That’s not the worst consolation prize, but Oregon State has another problem too: quarterback. DJ Uiagalelei is on the prowl for the third program of his career after entering the portal following Smith’s secession. In fact, the Beavers have many other problems, like all-Pac-12 first-teamer ILB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, second-teamer Jake Velling at TE, and secondary standouts Akili Arnold and Jermod McCoy, all currently in the transfer portal. Even the backup quarterback Aidan Chiles is within the portal’s event horizon.

In all, eight Oregon State players are in the portal and the Beavers that surface in El Paso will be far from what their Pac-12 opponents had to deal with. Maybe they rally behind a unified cause, but those are some big shoes to fill, and not a lot of time to do it.

Tulane

After seven seasons in New Orleans, Willie Fritz went west on I-10 to Houston immediately following Tulane’s defeat to SMU in the AAC Championship Game. The Green Wave are now facing the Hokies in the Military Bowl without the man who led the program to its recent rise.

Does that mean that things will be different? Who’s to say. The transfer portal has not hit Tulane too hard so far, all things considered. Part of that could be attributed to how quickly the Green Wave replaced Fritz, turning to Troy head coach Jon Sumrall to fill the role. Sumrall won’t be on the sideline in Annapolis, though.

That will be Slade Nagle, the team’s offensive coordinator, who has been with the program since 2016. That’s good for offensive continuity, and Nagle will still have quarterback Michael Pratt at his disposal, but who he won’t have is Pratt’s favorite target from this season, Chris Brazzell II. The portal did not get Tulane too badly yet, but Brazzell is a loss that could sting.

Birmingham Bowl

Remember the name Jon Sumrall? Yeah, that guy I mentioned in the Tulane section is here again but for the opposite reason. After talismaning Troy to the Sun Belt title belt, Sumrall dipped for Tulane, leaving the Trojans coachless in the lead-up to their Birmingham Bowl brawl with Duke.

The Blue Devils will also be without their head coach, Mike Elko, who accepted the same position at Texas A&M, dealing the duo duplicate dilemmas. The transfer portal has eaten at more of Duke’s roster than Troy’s, though. Nine Blue Devils are in the transfer portal at present, including quarterback Riley Leonard, who was at the center of any success in Durham in 2023.

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That is a lot of change for both teams to handle. The unknown quantities at play might give you pause before anointing this pairing as a Best Pick. As for insight into who will win, that crystal ball is murkier.