Splash Bowl Bonanza Picks: Holiday Slate

To pick this year’s big bowl games and help you compete for $50K in the Splash Bowl Pick X Bonanza, let’s study 15 holiday bowl matchups using three common data points: First Downs (how well each team’s offense moves the chains), Turnover Differential (how well each team holds onto and takes away the ball), and Opponent Points Per Play (how well each team’s defense limits scoring opportunities). Let’s get into it!

Texas Bowl - Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State

7-5 Texas A&M will face 9-4 Oklahoma State in what is an away game on the books but a home game in reality for A&M. Oklahoma State finished the season ranked #20 in the nation with two wins against ranked teams; Texas A&M was 0-4  vs ranked teams on the year.

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Offensive first-down production is about the same for each team. Oklahoma State has a modest advantage in turnover differential. The big note is on Opponents Points per Play allowed, where A&M is significantly better. I love OKST’s running game and complementary passing attack but I think A&M is favored against a ranked team here for a reason - Pick Texas A&M.

Fenway Bowl - SMU vs Boston College

11-2 SMU will travel to visit 6-6 Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. SMU - winners of three of their last five games - are heavily favored in this game and their passing attack is sure to be featured. Can BC compete?

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Unfortunately, this one doesn’t even set up as close. SMU is four first downs per game better than BC on offense, they have a superior turnover differential, and their defense is top-10 in limiting opponent points per play. It’s nice that a real hometown team gets a bowl game but this is not a good matchup - Pick SMU.

Pinstripe Bowl - Rutgers vs Miami (FL)

6-6 Rutgers will play visitor to 7-5 Miami’s home team in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Rutgers went 4-1 to end the regular season, their only loss coming to Michigan. Miami won four in a row, including a big game against a ranked Texas A&M team, to end the season.

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Miami is far more productive moving the chains on offense.  Rutgers gets a slight nod in terms of turnover differential. This one is once again all about opponent points per play allowed -- the Hurricanes defense is #5 in the nation in that category and it will show up on the day - Pick Miami (FL).

Pop-Tarts Bowl - NC State vs Kansas State

We get a better matchup on paper here as #18 ranked NC State will battle #25 ranked Kansas State -- it’s not that common to get two ranked teams outside of New Year's Day or the CFP, so the game should be well-viewed.

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Both teams allow about the same number of points per play. Both teams are good at protecting the ball when they have it and taking it away from their opponent. The difference in this game is offensive production. Kansas State is good for five extra first downs in this game; that’s too much for NC State - Pick Kansas State.

Alamo Bowl - Arizona vs Oklahoma

This is another excellent matchup of two teams ranked in the top 15 to end the 2023 regular season. 9-3 Arizona will challenge 10-2 Oklahoma at the Alamodome in a game that’s predicted to be a toss-up.

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Arizona has a good offense but Oklahoma has a great one in terms of first down production. Oklahoma is also good for at least one additional turnover on the day. Both play pretty good defense, but Arizona allows more points per play. It may be a very close game but I’ll play what the data says - Pick Oklahoma.

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Kentucky

#22 ranked Clemson (8-4) will line up against 7-5 Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. Kentucky started hot (5-0), before stumbling, but wrapped the regular season with a win against #10 Louisville. Clemson finished with four straight wins, including two against top-20 teams.

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Clemson is the much more productive offense by first downs gained (+71 vs Kentucky). They also hold a slight advantage in turnover differential and allow about 20% fewer points per play than Kentucky.  Kentucky will not be able to hang with this team for four quarters - Pick Clemson.

Quick Lane Bowl - Bowling Green vs Minnesota

7-5 Bowling Green will face 5-7 Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. If it doesn’t seem right that Minnesota gets a bowl game after going 0-4 to end the season and finish with a losing record, that’s college football for you in 2023.

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These are both pretty dull teams but perhaps the matchup will have some interesting moments. Don’t expect a lot of offense -- neither team lights up the field. Don’t expect a lot of defense, either. There’s something to be said for the idea that a late turnover will decide this one - Pick Bowling Green.

First Responder Bowl - Texas State vs Rice

7-5 Texas State will play visitor to 6-6 Rice in a game that promises to feature a lot of passing. Combined, the two offenses produced 5,700 passing yards and 45 passing touchdowns between them in 2023, with Texas State holding the edge in each category.

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Forget defense in this game, it’s gonna be like the CFL playoffs out there. Texas State is very good at moving the chains and Rice ain’t bad. Both teams are turnover-prone and give up points at a high rate. I think Texas State will control the clock but let Rice hang around with two minutes left. I like a late-game upset - Pick Rice.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl - Kansas vs UNLV

8-4 Kansas will face 9-3 UNLV under the lights in Phoenix. Kansas will be heavily favored in this game. Both teams were 3-2 over their last five games and neither had a victory over a ranked opponent in 2023.

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Both teams can and will move the chains on offense. Kansas is balanced, while UNLV wants to air it out and will take more shots downfield. Give the edge to UNLV on turnover differential but note that Kansas allows opponents fewer points per play. This is closer than it looks - Pick Kansas.

Military Bowl - Virginia Tech vs Tulane

This one looks like a lopsided game on the top line. Virginia Tech limps in at 6-6 having won three of their last five games. Tulane, on the other hand, was a sharp 11-2 on the season and won four of their last five, dropping only the AAC championship game against SMU.  

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Tulane is the superior team in terms of first-down production, turnover differential, and limiting opponent points per play (#21 in the nation). Don’t ask me why Virginia Tech is favored in this one. I clearly see it going the opposite way - Pick Tulane.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl - North Carolina vs West Virginia

North Carolina and West Virginia will contest their identical 8-4 records at Bank of America Stadium. NC started hot before losing three of their last five. West Virginia closed strong, winning four of their last five.

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North Carolina’s offense is excellent and led by a potential #1 overall NFL Draft pick, but he’s not playing in this game. However, NC’s turnover differential is notably superior, and they give up fewer points per play. A close game with free mayo on the line - Pick North Carolina.

Holiday Bowl - Louisville vs USC

10-3 Louisville will challenge 7-5 USC in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Ranked #15 at the end of the season, Louisville lost a close game to FSU for the ACC title. USC, meanwhile, backs into a bowl game after losing four of their last five on the season.

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Both teams move the chains; USC is a little more explosive on offense but their starting QB is sitting. Louisville looks more consistent against tough competition. There’s a slight turnover edge but the main number here is opponent points per play allowed. USC can’t play defense like they do and win this game - Pick Louisville.

Sun Bowl - Oregon State vs Notre Dame

Here’s another good bowl matchup on paper as two top-20 teams go at it: 8-4 Oregon State and 9-3 Notre Dame. Oregon State lost three of their last five, including two to higher-ranked teams. Notre Dame won four of their last five, losing only to Clemson.

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Both teams convert a good number of first downs and offer a balanced attack on offense. Both teams are successful at creating takeaways while avoiding turning the ball over. While Oregon State’s defense is pretty good, Notre Dame’s is #12 in the nation based on points per play allowed - Pick Notre Dame.

Liberty Bowl - Memphis vs Iowa State

9-3 Memphis will challenge 7-5 Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. Despite having two fewer wins, Iowa State is favored in this game based on the conference they play in. Is that a legit way to set the odds for this game?

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Memphis puts up a lot of yards on offense and has fun doing it. Iowa State’s offense is one of the least productive in the nation. Iowa State has a slight edge in turnover differential and their defense is #6 in the country based on opponent points per play. Low-scoring, field goal difference game here - Pick Iowa State.

Cotton Bowl - Missouri vs Ohio State

We end with one of the best 2023 bowl games on the schedule: 10-2 Missouri vs 11-1 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri’s only losses on the season came to Georgia and LSU (both ranked). Ohio State’s only loss came to the #1 CFP team, Michigan.

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First down production is about even and both offenses have balance. There’s a significant edge to Missouri on turnovers but I don’t think it’s enough. Bottomline: Missouri allows twice as many points per play as Ohio State, and that will be the difference - Pick Ohio State.