NFL Contenders and Pretenders for Week 6

Entering Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season, key statistical indicators of performance are becoming clearer and more reliable. One of the best is Turnover Differential -- the difference between the number of times a team has taken the ball away via a fumble recovery or interception, versus the number of times they have given it away through a fumble lost or by throwing an interception.

In this post, we’ll look at the top five and bottom five teams by turnover differential. Entering Week 6, the top five teams are: San Francisco (+7), Tampa Bay (+7), Buffalo (+6), Dallas (+6), and Houston (+5). The bottom five teams are: Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (-9), New England (-8), Cleveland (-7) and Washington (-5).

Which of these teams is a legit contender and who has a Week 6 matchup you can rely on to help you win your weekly Pick X contest on Splash? Let’s get into it!

San Francisco (+7 turnovers) @ Cleveland (-7 turnovers)

San Francisco is coming off a Week 5 demolition of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night football when the 49ers defense registered three interceptions and a fumble recovery against a single lost fumble on offense (+3). Cleveland is coming off their bye week, but in Week 4 lost handily to the Baltimore Ravens when backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions. It’s not all on DTR though as the Browns have been pretty woeful ever since RB Nick Chubb went down. That said, In no phase of the game - offense, defense, special teams - are these two teams even in the same class. This is the easiest game of Week 6 to call: Pick the San Francisco 49ers.

Detroit (+1 turnover) @ Tampa Bay (+7 turnovers)

Detroit has looked very good this season, despite just a +1 turnover differential, though that improved to +3 in Week 5 versus the Carolina Panthers and a struggling Bryce Young. That said, this does feel a little like a potential trap game for the Lions as they head to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have a +7 turnover differential on the season but they haven’t played top competition (wins over the Vikings, Bears and Saints), and only broke even on turnovers in their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Ultimately, I’m going to ignore the season-to-date turnover differential and trust Jared Goff’s efficiency at QB over Baker Mayfield’s in this game. Pick the Detroit Lions.

New York Giants (-5 turnovers) @ Buffalo (+6 turnovers)

Absent star LB Matt Milano, Buffalo’s defense struggled in Week 5, failing to record an interception or capitalize on two fumble recoveries when Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence coughed up the ball. The Giants, meanwhile, got schooled by Miami in Week 5, despite winning the turnover battle +3. I think Buffalo’s woes in Week 5 had much to do with the fact the game was in London and the team simply didn’t travel well (cramps etc. were apparent throughout the second half). I don’t want to tick off America’s largest media market, but the Giants just aren’t very good this season, with or without Saquon Barkley in the lineup. Pick the Buffalo Bills.

Dallas (+6 turnovers) @ Los Angeles Chargers (+5 turnovers)

QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys showed their true colors against the 49ers in Week 5, posting a minus-3 turnover differential on the day, while getting thumped 10-42. That performance downgraded the Cowboys from #1 in turnover differential after Week 4, to #4 heading into Week 6 versus the Chargers. LAC is coming off their bye week, having dropped two games to start the season, before rallying to beat a couple poor teams in the Vikings and Raiders in Weeks 3 and 4. Dallas usually bounces back after a bad game and the Chargers defense is certainly vulnerable. I hate to do it, but I get paid to think, not feel. Pick the Dallas Cowboys.

New Orleans (+3 turnovers) @ Houston (+5 turnovers)

After five weeks of play, Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has thrown 7 TDs against zero interceptions while completing greater than 61% of his passes -- remarkably efficient play for a first year pivot on what’s supposed to be a rebuilding team. In the same timeframe, veteran Saints QB Derek Carr, who was brought in with an eye towards capturing the NFC South division, has thrown 4 TDs versus 2 interceptions while completing about 65% of his passes. New Orleans must win to keep pace with Atlanta in the standings. The surprising Texans must win to remain in contention in the AFC South. I like the rookie over the veteran in this game and I like Houston’s vibe. Pick the Houston Texans.

Minnesota (-9 turnovers) @ Chicago (-4 turnovers)

Oh my, where to start with this game? The Vikings are about as inefficient as you can get with just three takeaways versus 12 giveaways on the season so far -- a big part of the reason they are 1-4 on the year Their only win came against the Panthers in Week 4 (when Minnesota still recorded a minus-1 turnover differential). Bears QB Justin Fields threw picks consistently over the first three weeks, but has upped his game over the last couple contests. That said, the Bears don’t offer much of a takeaway threat either. Disclaimer: I can’t stand the Vikings or any team that wears purple and plays in a dome. Pick the Chicago Bears.

New England (-8 turnovers) @ Las Vegas (-9 turnovers)

This game has ‘ugly’ written all over it. These are two bad teams. Mac Jones deserves a starting QB job in the NFL about as much as I do and Bill Belichik is a hollowed-out version of the mighty coach he once was, with seemingly no answers to the Patriots 2023 woes. That said, the Raiders are starting a true rookie at QB and the defense is truly abysmal with just one takeaway registered on the season. To call this game a war of attrition is an understatement. It’s just a matter of which team makes the fewest (or most) errors. Based on what I have seen out of each organization this season, I think a coin flip may be an easier way to pick this one -- it’s heads. Pick the New England Patriots.

Washington (-5 turnovers) @ Atlanta (-3 turnovers)

Washington started strong with wins in Weeks 1 and 2, but has looked mediocre at best for three games in a row with losses to the Bills, Eagles and, most recently, the previously winless Bears. I like Commanders QB Sam Howell - dude is athletic and willing - but he throws a lot of interceptions. Can Atlanta capitalize on that in Week 6? Falcons QB Desmond Ridder is less of an X factor athlete than Howell, but he is also a little more efficient (4 TDs against 3 INTs on the season). Atlanta squeaked out a Week 5 win over the Texans despite losing the turnover battle minus-2; that’s not a formula you can rely on in the NFL. Washington needs a win to get a share of second place in the NFC East. Atlanta needs a win to keep pace with Tampa Bay atop of the NFC south standings. Pick the Atlanta Falcons.