NFL Contenders and Pretenders for Week 7

Entering Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season, Point Differential - the difference between the number of points a team has scored minus the number of points they have given up - is becoming a more reliable indicator of predictable performance.

Combined with a little matchup intel, point differential can provide a lot of guidance for picking games. With that in mind, we’ll look at the top five and bottom five teams by point differential going into the NFL’s Week 7 slate of games and assess their individual matchups.

Currently, the top five teams by point differential are San Francisco (+97), Buffalo (+84), Miami (+67), Kansas City (+59), and Detroit (+55). No surprise, these teams are a combined 24-6 (.800) on the season.

The bottom five teams by point differential going into Week 7 are: the New York Giants (-96), New England (-80), Carolina (-74; on a bye week), Denver (-71), and Chicago (-48). Again unsurprisingly, these teams are a combined 4-26 (.133) on the season.

But which of these teams is a legit contender in Week 7 and who has the points differential and a matchup that you can exploit to win your weekly Pick X contest on Splash? Let’s get into it!

San Francisco (+97) @ Minnesota (-6)

On the top line, this one looks easy to pick. But have a look at recent news and injuries, and this NFC conference matchup gets somewhat more murky.  SFO’s star RB Christian McCaffery is questionable for the game with rib and oblique injuries, while top WR Deebo Samuel is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered vs. Cleveland. Meanwhile, star MIN WR Justin Jefferson is on IR and will be very difficult to replace in a Vikings offense built around his extensive skill set. I think Deebo is legit banged up and will struggle to regain full health this season. CMCIII I do not see missing this game if he can possibly avoid it. The 49ers are the better team, even on the road. Pick the San Francisco 49ers

Buffalo (+84) @ New England (-80)

On paper, this game should be a blowout. That said, weird things tend to happen in the AFC East where New England has already beaten the Jets and stayed within a touchdown of Miami this season. The Bills have looked vulnerable the last two weeks in a loss to the Jaguars and SNF’s shaky win over the New York Giants, recording a point differential of +0 in those two games. That said, New England has looked positively dreadful losing their last three straight by a combined score of 20-93 for a -73 point differential. I expect Buffalo’s top-10 defense will be enough to carry this game. Pick the Buffalo Bills.

Miami (+67) @ Philadelphia (+31)

As an NFL fan, this should be the game of the week. This pair of 5-1 teams have earned their point differential in different ways. Miami’s offense is the best in the league (223 points scored), while the defense is bottom third (156 points allowed). Philadelphia’s offense is loaded with weapons but has only produced 155 points while relying on defense to keep games close enough to win (124 points allowed). Check weather conditions on the day, but I will play the point differential and go with the stronger offense in a game I expect to be a high-scoring shootout. Pick the Miami Dolphins.

Kansas City (+59) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+6)

This is a divisional matchup between two teams operating under very different sets of expectations. After dropping their season opener to the Lions, defending champs Kansas City have now won five straight games by a combined score of 127-67, albeit against some unconvincing opponents, Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver among them. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 2-2 heading into their MNF clash against the Cowboys on Oct. 16th; a game I expect they will lose. Assuming Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both healthy for this game, I can’t see KC winning by less than five points at home. Pick the Kansas City Chiefs.

Detroit (+55) @ Baltimore (+42)

This is the other game that I will definitely watch in Week 7. The Lions are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, sitting at 5-1, tied with a few others for the best record in the league. Over the course of their four-game winning streak, the Lions have averaged a point differential of +13, or nearly two touchdowns; that’s against some decent, though not great defenses. Baltimore, meanwhile, features the league’s #7 ranked defense and still one of the NFL’s most dangerous quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 1-1 at home, while Detroit is 3-0 as an away team. I’m on the Motown hype train for this one. Pick the Detroit Lions.

New York Giants (-96) vs. Washington (-43)

Neither the Giants nor the Commanders are great football teams or likely playoff contenders in 2023. That said, this is an intra-divisional matchup between two teams with a long history that do not like each other. Expect a lot of emotion and a lot of sacks given up by each team (they’ve allowed a combined 67 already on the season, or about 5.5 each per game). The Giants hope the difference in this game is a healthy Saquon Barkley, who returned to play on SNF vs. Buffalo, and looked pretty good while collecting 98 yards on 28 total touches -- I’m not so sure. I think Washington is the better team, as the point differential between the two squads dictates. Pick the Washington Commanders.

Denver (-71) vs. Green Bay (+0)

Green Bay has, in my estimation, has yet to play a complete game this season. Whether that’s due to injuries, the development of QB Jordan Love, bad play calling, or stupid penalties, that’s the way it is. That said, Denver has yet to play a complete game in about a year. Denvers’ defense is the league’s worst (200 points allowed), and the offense hasn’t done much to inspire, either. The big question in my mind about this game is who is going to be healthier come kickoff time? If GB RB Aaron Jones, LBs Quay Walker, and De’Vondre Campbell, and S Darnell Savage play, I think Green Bay’s running game and defense can keep Denver in check and win this game. If those guys don’t start, this may be Denver’s best chance for a win before Christmas. That said, check the injury designations on game day before following this advice: Pick the Green Bay Packers.

Chicago (-48) vs. Las Vegas (-31)

The Bears were trending up after weeks 4 and 5, when QB Justin Fields seemed to be coming into his own, going 1-1 while posting a +17 point differential. That all came to a grinding halt when Fields exited their 19-13 Week 6 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings (the news is that he popped the thumb on his throwing hand and could not grip the ball). If Fields is out for this Week 7 game, along with RB Khalil Herbery who also missed Week 6, the Bears offense will struggle to move the ball efficiently. Las Vegas is a sketchy 3-3 on the season, with wins over Denver, Green Bay, and New England, who are a combined 4-13 with a combined point differential of -151 on the season. Las Vegas QB Jimmy G. hurt his back in Week 6 so check the injury reports as the week goes on. If either starting QB can’t go, pick against their team. If all things are equal, take the better defense. Pick the Las Vegas Raiders.