Public vs. Sharp: Who's Winning the Pick War?

Every day in QuickPicks, users make picks based on instinct, research, or reputation. But when you compare the public’s picks to those made by Splash's sharpest users, the gaps in strategy become clear.

We analyzed pick data from the past seven days to see where the sharp users found their edge and where the public may have gone wrong. Here’s what stood out.

The Public Leaned on Stars While Sharps Played Selectively

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were among the most heavily picked players by the public last week, especially on the More side of their total bases projections. Those picks struggled to hit, with success rates hovering just above 40 percent.

Sharps, on the other hand, picked these players far less frequently. When they did, they picked at a 100% success rate. Instead of chasing stars every night, they waited for favorable matchups and high-leverage opportunities. That patience showed up in their results.

Jackson Merrill: A Quiet Winner for Both Sides

Jackson Merrill's run projection hit at a strong rate for both public and sharp users. But while the public approached him with moderate confidence, sharp users had a perfect record on the pick. This kind of precise timing is what defines sharp play. Rather than guessing, these users took calculated swings based on data and opportunity.

Marcell Ozuna and Manny Machado: Public Success, Sharp Precision

Both players saw heavy public action on their run projections and rewarded that attention with very high hit rates. Sharp users were also on the right side, but picked their spots with far more restraint. They maintained perfect accuracy on both players without relying on volume.

This kind of discipline leads to a higher percentage of correct picks, even if the total number of selections is lower. It reflects an approach centered around leverage and selectivity rather than broad exposure.

What You Can Learn From Sharp Strategy

Sharp users are not just right more often. They are right when it counts. Instead of locking in every big name or trending pick, they look for inefficiencies and avoid crowd-driven traps.

If you want to adopt a sharper mindset, ask yourself:

• Would I make this pick if the player was not well-known?

• Am I finding value or following the crowd?

Watching how sharp users play each week can help you spot new opportunities and think more strategically in your QuickPicks entries. We’ll continue to track these trends to see who is winning the pick war.