Splash Bowl Bonanza Picks: The CFP Semifinals

Love the selections or hate them, the 2023 college football playoff bracket is set. In the semifinal round, #1 Michigan will play #4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, while #2 Washington will face #3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Both are predicted to be close games. We're breaking down the matchups

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Now that we are 13 games in, it’s easier and more reliable to use key data points to compare these teams. The trick is to find those stats that are most reflective of overall team performance against all types of opponents.

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In this post, we’ll focus on three essential stats for each game: First Downs (how well each team’s offense moves the chains), Turnover Differential (how well each team holds onto and takes away the ball), and Time of Possession (how well each team dictates tempo and keeps their defense fresh).

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We’ll also take a look at one bonus statistic for each game that may be telling in the final outcome. So what do the numbers say about how the CFP semifinals may work out? Let’s get into it, starting with the Rose Bowl.

Rose Bowl - Alabama vs Michigan

Whether you think they deserve to be #4 or not, the Alabama Crimson Tide recorded the best win of the year when they defeated Georgia in the SEC Championship. Michigan came in the direct route, going 13-0 despite being without Head Coach Jim Harbaugh for six games.

Both of these programs have legitimate national pedigree, though it has been a long time since Michigan was ranked #1 overall. ‘Bama, on the other hand, is not far removed from its own national championship days and will be hungry to return to the show.

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In terms of total first downs on offense, these two teams are about dead even, which speaks to the parity in this matchup. Michigan has about a two minute edge in average time of possession, which to me speaks of the reliability of their running game.

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One big difference between Michigan and Alabama can be found in comparing turnover differential. At +17 on the season, Michigan is among the best in the country. At +8 themselves, Alabama is also pretty good. That said, a single turnover in a close game is all it takes to win, and Michigan has that statistical edge in this game.

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The other key stat I’d like you to note for this one is Penalties per Game -- Michigan is the least penalized team in the nation at just 2.9 per game. Alabama commits about six penalties a game, or twice as many: that could be an extra 30 or 50 yards field position over the game, or a clutch drive extender (or killer).

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Interpretations: The numbers say this will be a close game. Statistically, Michigan should be able to create an extra turnover on defense and establish the run on offense. Alabama will need to limit mistakes to keep it close in the fourth quarter but the Michigan Wolverines will win the game and go to the ‘ship.

Sugar Bowl - Texas vs Washington

#2 Washington fought their way to the playoffs through a perfect 13-0 season by winning close games against quality opponents, including Oregon, USC, Oregon State, and Utah, on their way to a Pac-12 Championship. #3 Texas lost to Oklahoma in the regular season, but beat Alabama, and handily won the the Big 12 Championship to punch their ticket to the postseason.

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Texas runs the ball a little better but Washington passes it a little better. The Huskies have two 1,000 yard receivers while the Longhorns have none. In terms of total first downs, it’s pretty much even, with both teams registering towards the top of the rankings.

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One thing Washington doesn’t do much of is turn the ball over (just 17 total INTs and lost fumbles on the year). Of course, they don’t create many turnovers, either (18 total for a +1 TO differential). Texas is a little stronger in this statistical category with a +7 TO differential on the year. That may show up in this game.

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Texas has about a notable edge in average time of possession of more than two minutes and Washington averages well under 30 minutes average ToP on the season. Is this a red flag or a sign that the Huskies are a quick strike offense? In Washington’s case, it’s the latter. The team averages 7.23 yards per play -- fifth in the nation. So, advantage ToP to Texas, but it gets an asterisk for Washington’s ability to get downfield in a hurry.

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The other key stat I’d like you to note for this one is Defensive Sacks per Game -- On the surface, Texas has a clear advantage of almost one full sack per game - but - the Huskies have only allowed 11 sacks all year, or an average of about .9 per game. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have allowed 26 sacks, or 2 per game. So what initially appears to be advantageous to Texas, is in fact an area of opportunity for Washington in this game.

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Interpretations: The numbers are a little deceiving in this matchup. The difference in time of possession and turnover differential wants you to see Texas’ running game controlling tempo and the Longhorns grabbing an extra possession late. The reality around ToP though is that the Huskies’ explosive offense negates the influence of the stat. When we add in the extra breakdown on sacks per game, I smell upset. Take the Huskies to win.