Survivor Clean Slate Week 15: Green Bay Blues

No more byes. You know what that means? We’re bearing down on playoff football, even if the Bears aren’t.

Sorry, Chicago, I don’t mean anything by it. Besides, even though it’s been a bad season

you, this was a good week; the Bears knocked off the NFC North leaders and destroyed 3.04 percent of Splash Survivor entries in the process. If you were among those who aligned with the Lions this week, then you know what I’m talking about.

This article is for all of you stuck in a similar boat. It doesn’t matter if you picked the Lions, Packers, Dolphins, Chargers, or any of the other 15 Week 14 losers, you’re still in the same position: on the sideline searching for a new way in.

‍The Week 15 Splash NFL Survivor Sprint is open, with $6,000 guaranteed to whomever is left standing alone at its end. Like last week, entries are asked to correctly predict four winners each week to stay alive, a tall task with a nice reward at the end. There are just four weeks left in the regular season, so this contest cannot run longer than a month. That’s quite the metaphorical sprint to the finish, but you don’t have to be in excellent shape to run this race.

Here is a snapshot of some of your options for this week:

In Memoriam

As the season has moved along, Splash Survivor players have spread their weekly picks more widely. Of the 30 teams that took the field in Week 14, half of them received at least 1 percent of entries. Eight of those 15 went down.

The most egregious offender resides in Green Bay. The Packers were the third-most popular pick in Splash Survivor contests last week with 10.45 percent of entries backing them. They repaid that belief with a 24-22 road defeat at the Giants on Monday night. The loss made Green Bay’s path to the playoffs more complicated, and it ruined the week for about one in every 10 Splash Survivor entries.

The Steelers sunk the next-most players with their head scratcher at home to the Patriots on Thursday night, 21-18. Pittsburgh let Bailey Zappe throw three touchdowns as New England added only its third win of the season to its resume, and 9.28 percent of Survivor entries entered a black hole as a result.

Much to the chagrin of the city of Houston and 7.02 percent of Survivor entries, the Texans laid an egg in New York, nearly getting shut out by the Jets, 30-6. The Chargers’ poor showing at home to divisional rival Denver, 24-7, cost 6.23 percent of entries their future. The Dolphins, the biggest favorite of the week, were on the wrong side of what will certainly remain one of the largest upsets of the 2023 season - despite a 13.5-point spread, the Titans came from behind to outlast Miami at Hard Rock Stadium, 28-27.

The Lions (3.04 percent), Falcons (1.12 percent), and Jaguars (1.08 percent) rounded out the rest of the disappointments whose failures made waves in the Splash Survivor world. I’m sorry if you hitched your wagon to any of these turkeys in Week 14. Better luck next time.

If You Want This Week’s Biggest Favorite…

Last week’s biggest favorite ended up exterminating more than 5 percent of entries, a reminder not to get too caught up in the size of the spread. Nevertheless, these things don’t happen too often, and the books are usually onto something when they outline a huge line.

The 49ers are favored over the Cardinals in Week 15 by the same amount of points - 13.5 - that the Dolphins were favored over the Titans by in Week 14. If you think San Francisco is at risk of suffering the same fate as Miami did on Monday night, then keep looking. But you won’t find a bigger favorite anywhere else in the NFL this week.

These two NFC West counterparts have experienced totally inverse seasons up to this point. At 10-3, the Niners are comfortably at the top of the division and have already locked up a playoff berth. At 3-10, the Cardinals are comfortably at the bottom of the division, and it’s only a matter of time until they join the Panthers and Patriots as companions in playoff contention elimination. This matchup pits one of the unquestionably best and one of the unquestionably worst teams in pro football against one another.

Any given Sunday is a well-known adage in these parts, and they play the games for a reason. The Cardinals are also a different team with Kyler Murray, and their 2-2 record in their last four reflects that. But it remains overwhelmingly likely that San Francisco will complete the season sweep of Arizona this Sunday in Glendale. I expect the Niners to be among the most popular picks in Survivor this week.

If You Want This Week’s Next Biggest Favorite…

The Chiefs are coming into Week 15 with a loss, and the Patriots walk into it with a win, but it’s Kansas City that is the second-biggest favorite of the week, according to early lines.

In fact, the Chiefs are in the midst of a two-game skid and have dropped four of their last six after starting the season 7-1, and the division that they have dominated dating back to 2016 is now only in their favor by one game. There have appeared to be some cracks in the reigning Super Bowl champs.

That’s not doing a whole lot to impact how the books view this Arrowhead affair. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite over the three-win Patriots, who are one of two teams in the NFL to already be ousted from playoff contention.

During this slump, the Chiefs haven’t faced a team as low on the totem pole as New England. Their offense also hasn’t produced as you might expect in some time. But it has certainly been better than what the Patriots have done when they’ve had the ball this season - the Pats rank last in the league in points per game (13.0) and sit fifth-bottom in yards per game (291.4).

Kansas City seems more vulnerable than usual, but this isn’t your older brother’s New England. If the books are to be trusted, then the Chiefs are one of the safer Survivor picks in Week 15.

If You Want A Value Pick…

The Browns are 6-1 in games in Cleveland this season, which just so happens to be the location of their battle with the Bears this Sunday.

That’s not the only reason why I like the Browns as a Survivor value pick this week, but it is part of it. Cleveland’s defense has been its bread winner this season, but it has been especially effective at home. In its seven outings at Cleveland Browns Stadium, the team has recorded 27 sacks, forced opposing quarterbacks into a combined rating of 63.4 and a 53.7 completion percentage, and held foreign rushing attacks to just 3.8 yards per attempt. The Browns defense has had an outstanding year on the whole, but it reaches another level at home.

Can the Bears offense handle a Browns defense operating at that level? Chicago has racked up rushing yards this season - its 138.0 yards per game on the ground is the fourth-best in the league - but the air has proven to be a problem. Justin Fields will need to have one of his better passing performances of 2023 for his side to succeed in Cleveland.

The Browns also have a new answer under center, a question mark that had followed them all season long before now. Cleveland reintroduced 38-year-old Joe Flacco to the NFL, bringing the former Super Bowl champion back to the league after the former Raven, Bronco, Eagle, and Jet spent most of the campaign without a team, and in his two starts so far, he’s helped the Browns offense resemble something useful. Last week in Cleveland’s 31-27 triumph over the Jaguars, Flacco threw for three touchdowns and 311 yards, the first time the Browns have broken the 300 yard mark through the air in a contest this season. Flacco is looking like an upgrade from what the Browns got out of the revolving door of Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Cleveland is just a 3-point favorite in this one at the moment, and how Chicago has done lately could scare some Survivor players from touching this one when some surer bets seem to be out there. I see some good value in the Browns in Week 15.