There are surprises hidden inside every iteration of the NFL Playoffs. They come in varying shapes, styles, and sizes, but they all have the same consequences: a favorite bids farewell, and an underdog lives another day.
As we stand on the precipice of another playoff journey, I got to wondering about the anatomy of an NFL playoff upset. Maybe I could trace some trends from recent playoff history; it might shed some light on how these major moments come to be. Perhaps this could hint at which playoff personalities may fall victim to a similar fate this winter. If nothing else, it might be fun to dig up some old trauma for a handful of NFL fan bases. Football-focused schadenfreude never killed anybody.
For this exercise, I wanted a wide enough berth to have plenty of data points while maintaining relevance to the modern NFL. Plus, I didn’t want to overwhelm myself with too much. I am only one man. Five years felt like an appropriate timeline to operate within.
In the last five NFL postseasons, the underdog has overcome the favorite on 23 separate occasions. Twice, that occurred in the Super Bowl; the Chiefs were 1.5-point underdogs to the Eagles in last year‘s Super Bowl, and the Chiefs were 3-point favorites prior to Tampa Bay’s demolition of them in Super Bowl LV. The rest came in previous rounds.
But not all 23 of those technical upsets were all that surprising. Most had small lines, displaying a narrow bend one way. That is not exactly what comes to my mind when I think “upset.” So, I cut out any contest in which the underdog was considered to be within three points or fewer of the favorite. I tunneled my vision toward only the matchups with lines larger than a field goal. That left me with nine pairings to parse: 2023 Bengals at Bills, 2022 Bengals at Chiefs, 2022 49ers at Packers, 2022 Bengals at Titans, 2021 Browns at Steelers, 2020 Titans at Ravens, 2020 Vikings at Saints, 2020 Titans at Patriots, and 2019 Eagles at Bears.
What do these games have in common? Where do they depart? What can we learn from their existence? Our finding could come in handy when the Splash NFL Playoffs Pick X contests roll around.
Getting Hot at the Right Time
Momentum is one of sport’s most crucial intangibles. It stands to reason that a team entering the playoffs on a high note would be more likely to continue that into the postseason, underdogs included. There seems to be some evidence of this truth in the last five years.
The 2022-23 Bengals carried an eight-game win streak with them into the playoffs, and they overcame a 5.5-point spread against the favored Bills in the Divisional Round, 27-10.
The 2021-22 49ers went 7-2 in their final nine contests, including a marquee win to end the campaign over the Rams, eventual Super Bowl champs. San Francisco was a 5.5-point underdog at the Packers in the Divisional Round but won anyway, 13-10.
The 2018-19 Eagles closed out the campaign with five wins in six tries to salvage their once-4-6 record before shocking the 6.5-point favorite Bears in the Wild Card Round, 16-15, generously benefiting from the now-famous double doink.
The 2019-20 Titans were 4-5 through Week 9, then won four in a row and clinched a playoff berth in the final week of the regular season with a decisive 21-point road triumph at the Texans, that year’s AFC South champions. That Tennessee team went on to contribute two major upsets to this list: first beating the Patriots and a 4.5-point spread in the Wild Card Round, 20-13, then next wrangling the Ravens and a 10-point spread in the Divisional Round, 28-12. The Titans’ upset of the Ravens that year is the biggest of the half-decade.
The 2021-22 Bengals took three-straight for themselves late on in the schedule, including a defining home victory versus the Chiefs in the penultimate week to secure the AFC North title. Like the Titans before them, the Bengals achieved two upsets worthy of study. Poetically, Tennessee was Cincinnati’s first victim, falling 19-16 to the away side despite a 4-point line in its favor. More politically, the Bengals beat the Chiefs again, this time at Arrowhead, in the AFC Championship Game, 27-24, laughing at their status as 7-point underdogs prior to kick off.
There has only been one glaring exception to the momentum angle in the last five years. The 2019-20 Vikings lost the last two games of the regular season and were 2-3 in their final five, costing them any hope of the top spot in the NFC North. Minnesota was subsequently a 7.5-point underdog at New Orleans in the Wild Card Round but stunned the Saints and the books, 26-20.
That’s not enough for me to decry the impact that being hot can have this time of year, though. There is a healthy amount of evidence that shows that an underdog that has been finding itself on the right side of games lately is a dangerous one. Any favorite would be wise to handle those underdogs with extra care.
It’s Better If They Don’t Know You
Don’t let previous matchups between teams pitted against one another cloud your judgment too much. There is little to suggest it means anything for a major underdog’s likelihood to slay a Goliath.
The 2021-22 Bengals didn’t play the Titans in the regular season, but bested the Chiefs weeks before doing it again to punch their Super Bowl ticket. The 2020-21 Browns went 1-1 against the Steelers in the regular season, getting smacked by 31 in October before enacting revenge in Week 17. They then ended Pittsburgh’s season in the Wild Card Round seven days later, 48-37, in the face of a 5-point spread.
It was a different story for the 2021-22 Niners. They surrendered to Green Bay by two points in Week 3, but that outcome didn’t impact their joint reintroduction in the playoffs.
None of the other major upsets from the last five years were rematches. The Bengals and Bills were scheduled to play in Week 17 of the 2022-23 campaign, but extenuating circumstances canceled the game. For the most part, these major upsets have not been centered around teams that know one another. Maybe the conclusion to draw is that a misunderstood underdog is a dangerous one. When a favorite has familiarity with its foe, the element of surprise disappears. Past results indicate that favorites are still vulnerable even if they have played their underdog adversary, but zero shared history is a checkmark for the little guy.
You Better Hit Your Target
Dating back to 2019, Pro Football Reference has tracked a pass accuracy stat for all 32 NFL teams called on-target percentage, which measures the rate of a team’s tosses that are on-target, excluding spikes and throwaways. That means that the stat can provide insight into eight of the nine major upsets featured in this article.
Only the 2020-21 Browns’ upset of the Steelers and the 2019-20 Vikings’ upset of the Saints do not fit the mold. In every other instance of a major upset in the last few NFL Playoffs, the underdog beat the favorite in on-target percentage during the regular season, often by a good deal.
In six of the eight major upsets since 2019, the victorious underdog had a better on-target percentage than the crestfallen favorites in the regular season, and in the one instance where the stat is not available, the 2018-19 Eagles bested the 2018-19 Bears in bad pass percentage (13.2 percent to 18.0 percent).
The 2022-23 Bengals, 2021-22 Bengals, and 2021-22 49ers were among the best in the league in their respective seasons in on-target percentage and bad pass percentage. The 2019-20 Titans’ mark of 77.4 percent of passes being on-target was better than the Patriots (73.1 percent) and Ravens (75.6 percent) that season. Tennessee threw fewer bad balls, too.
This does not mean the pass was equally instrumental in each of these upsets as they unfolded. It played a different role in each game. But this strikes me too strongly to be a mere coincidence. I think there is something here, and it stands to reason that there would be.
Football is a team sport. You need everyone to have success, especially at the level required in the NFL Playoffs. But one position rises above the rest, in attention and importance: quarterback. The NFL is a passing league. Those that dominate aerially are often the most victorious.
The margins in this league are slim, and that’s a truism in the regular season, let alone the playoffs, when less than half of the league is allowed entrance. In a single-elimination tournament, capitalizing on the opportunities offered to your offense is crucial. Hit your target, and you have a chance. Accuracy is everything.
Frequently Asked Questions
In the high-stakes environment of the NFL playoffs, unpredictability can be a game-changer. Below are answers to common questions about how a team’s unfamiliarity or unexpected tactics can fuel stunning postseason upsets.
How does unfamiliarity between teams increase the likelihood of an upset?
When teams haven’t faced each other recently, favorites have less firsthand knowledge to prepare for their opponent’s tendencies, making them more vulnerable to unexpected strategies.
What are some ways underdogs can use unpredictability to their advantage?
Underdogs may introduce new plays, formations, or personnel packages, forcing favorites to adjust on the fly and possibly leading to confusion or mismatches.
Why is the element of surprise often more powerful in the playoffs?
With limited preparation time and higher stakes, teams are less able to adapt to new looks or schemes, making surprises more disruptive than in the regular season.
Can a lack of shared history between teams really impact the outcome?
Yes. Historical data show that playoff upsets often occur when teams have little or no recent matchups, allowing underdogs to catch favorites off guard.
How do coaches prepare for unfamiliar opponents in the playoffs?
Coaches rely heavily on film study, but without recent direct experience, it’s harder to anticipate subtle shifts in game plans or player roles.
Why does execution under pressure matter so much in playoff games?
The importance of precise execution, such as making critical plays or hitting key targets, can be decisive in close playoff games and contribute to unexpected victories. A single well-executed play can shift momentum, keep drives alive, or even decide the outcome, especially when the stakes and nerves are at their highest.
How do quarterbacks contribute to playoff upsets through execution?
Quarterbacks who consistently deliver accurate passes under pressure give their teams a chance to capitalize on scoring opportunities, reduce costly mistakes, and maximize every possession.
What role do receivers and defenders play in critical moments?
Receivers making tough catches and defenders executing key stops can change a game’s trajectory, often turning an underdog’s hope into a real chance at victory.
Can special teams execution influence upset outcomes?
Absolutely. Flawless execution on field goals, punts, or returns can provide crucial points or field position, making a significant impact in tightly contested playoff games.
How do teams prepare to execute under high-pressure situations?
Teams simulate high-pressure scenarios in practice, emphasizing focus, communication, and repetition to build confidence and reliability when the stakes are highest.
How does getting hot at the end of the regular season help underdogs in the playoffs?
Teams that finish the regular season strong build momentum and confidence, which can carry over into the playoffs and help them outperform expectations against higher-seeded opponents.
Why is momentum so important in single-elimination playoff games?
Teams that perform at their best during the playoffs, often referred to as 'getting hot at the right time,' may increase their chances of achieving an upset. Momentum boosts team morale and sharpens execution, allowing underdogs to play more aggressively and capitalize on opportunities in high-pressure, win-or-go-home scenarios.
Can a late-season winning streak impact a team’s playoff mindset?
Yes. A winning streak fosters belief and resilience, making players more likely to trust one another and stick to their game plan, even in the face of adversity.
Do hot teams have a psychological advantage over their playoff opponents?
Absolutely. Opponents may feel extra pressure facing a surging team, while the underdog benefits from heightened confidence and less to lose, often resulting in looser, more effective play.
Are there examples where late-season momentum led to a major upset?
Recent playoff history is full of examples, such as the 2022-23 Bengals and the 2019-20 Titans, where teams on a hot streak toppled heavily favored opponents.
How do coaches keep a team peaking at the right time?
Coaches manage player workloads, emphasize fundamentals, and foster a positive locker room environment to ensure their team is healthy, focused, and motivated entering the postseason.
Does peaking too early in the season hurt a team’s playoff chances?
It can. Teams that peak early sometimes lose focus or energy, while those that build momentum late are often better prepared to handle the intensity of playoff football.
For you curious folks back at home, the Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Eagles round out the top five in the league in on-target percentage, in that order, with just one week of football remaining in the regular season. The teams likely to be seeded lower but that still may qualify for the postseason are the Vikings (sixth at 78.8 percent), the Saints (seventh at 78.7 percent), and the Bills (ninth at 77.5 percent). Splash Sports.com offers a fun and competitive platform where you can make your own NFL playoff picks and compete with friends or fans nationwide.
