The Fall of the New England Patriots

By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast

End of the Reign

This article hurts to write as a lifelong Patriots fan, but I’m sure the other thirty-one fan bases in the NFL will gladly read on with smiles as a beaten-down Patriots fan writes the eulogy on the 2023 season just six weeks in. Credit to me for having the gall to write so eloquently about such a poor display of football - my how a few years have changed things in New England. From mismanaged draft picks and free agency signings to a bewildered quarterback and a coach who may be losing his touch, there’s a calamity of issues leading to the demise of the New England Patriots, and confidence in picks and wagering is heading in the same direction.

I’ll live and get over the sadness. I can watch the replays of my six world championships forever since we banked those…but now that the Patriots have officially reached a “starting over” point according to Bill Belichick, it’s time to dissect what’s ahead, and where any confidence in picking the Pats may lie in the future.

What Happened to the Pats?

In short, a series of gross miscalculations have retracted the Patriots back to being “just another team.” Quite obviously the biggest was letting go of Tom Brady with another quarter tank of gas in his tank, and the following acts at Quarterback have been underwhelming and unproductive. After a lackluster 7-9 campaign led by Cam Newton, season three of the Mac Jones draft and play experiment is digressing into a failed mission. As Bill and his coaching staff toiled with ways to turn Mac Jones into a 2001 version of Tom Brady, they stockpiled talent that failed left and right. From N’Keal Harry and Tyquan Thornton in the draft to Nelson Agholor and a crippled Juju Smith-Schuster, it’s clear that GM Bill and co. have lost their eye for talent and development on the offensive end. A total of 20 points and just two touchdowns over the last three games proves that out in a big way.

Defensively, there were some glimmers of hope that helped keep the Patriots relevant in games against even the highest power of offenses..until personnel turnover and injuries hit. Once the post-Brady era defensive stalwarts like D’Onta Hightower and Devon McCourty retired, new blood had to step up more than they have in recent months. The breakout performances on defense from Matthew Judon and rookie CB Christian Gonzalez were quickly ended by injuries that likely kept them out for the year..and then it all imploded. There’s a smidge of the “bend don’t break” philosophy but at 1-5, it’s hard to compliment this defense in any way - how could you pick a team like this any given Sunday?

What Happened to Pick Confidence?

As the weeks have progressed on the most cringe-worthy Patriots season in over two decades, the betting public has had a swift reaction that has shown both in lines and in picks. Back in the days of Brady, you would regularly see the Patriots favored at home or on the road, often by more than a touchdown. I can count on one hand the number of times I saw Tom Brady and the Patriots getting points - now it’s a weekly occurrence for Pats Nation…and our pick data shows it. They’ve been underdogs in four of their first six games, and their confidence is shrinking as the football world finds out just how bad they are. Last week just 33% picked them at +3.5 against a deteriorated Raiders team…and they still failed to cover in the end.

Tough Roads Ahead

Taking a look at the Patriots' schedule ahead now that double-digit losses and draft pick tanking conversation have arrived, it’s a smattering of games they likely won’t win and definitely won’t, unless there is one more “we’re on to Cincinnati” moment for Bill Belichick in his Patriots coaching career. Two upcoming matchups with the Bills and games against the Dolphins and Chiefs are all but scheduled losses as it currently stands, but is there any hope to beat up on bad teams with subpar QBs and squeak out mediocrity? Vegas thinks otherwise, as the season win total over/under on the Patriots has plummeted from the original 7.5 wins tally we saw heading into the start of the season. RYP pick confidence has plummeted as the Patriots are quickly becoming one of least least-picked teams in the league. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Pats Picks to Watch

Off of another knockout blow of a loss in Vegas, the gambles of drafts and offseasons in recent years have them bankrupt in both wins and n assets. Now they host a Bills team that overmatches them on both sides of the ball, and I’m expecting less than 25% will have the fortitude to back up the Pats this week or next in Miami.

One bright spot (and I'm digging deep here) is that their schedule does lighten, with upcoming matchups against fellow bottom feeders like the Colts, Giants, and the middling Commanders. There could even be one more game in that stretch where they got a majority of the pickers’ backing…but doesn’t guarantee much on the field as we’ve seen this season.