Week 3 Pick’Em Contest Analysis From PoolGenius

Week 3 Pick'Em Contest Analysis From PoolGenius

Last week’s underdogs have turned into this week’s favorites as we enter Week 3 of NFL Pick'Em contests. Through two weeks, we’ve already seen major upsets and surprising teams getting off to hot starts. PoolGenius Week 3 Pick'Em analysis highlights early value picks that you may want to consider, depending on your specific contest.

With both win odds and expected pick popularity in mind, there are two key strategies to help you succeed in Pick'Em contests:

1. Seek out unpopular picks that offer a calculated risk for potential gain.
2. Avoid trendy upset picks that are drawing heavy attention from the crowd.

The picks below highlight some of the best opportunities to stand out in your Pick'Em contests without taking on too much risk. If you're in a season-long Pick'Em contest, it’s generally not advisable to select all five of these picks, especially the upset options, as that would increase your overall risk. However, each is worth considering based on your contest's structure and circumstances.

Try PoolGenius' Football Pick'Em Picks product for customized recommendations based on your specific contest.

Note: Win odds and pick popularity estimates are current as of 12:30 pm ET on Tuesday, September 17th, but this data can change before kickoff. PoolGenius products update frequently to provide the most up-to-date numbers.

Week 3 Early Value Picks

Tennessee Titans (vs. Green Bay Packers)

• Spread: -3 | Win Odds: 65% | Pick Popularity: 37%
  Despite an 0-2 start, the Titans are favored by a field goal at home. Historically, teams that start 0-2 both straight up and against the spread have covered 65% of the time in Week 3 since 2014. The Titans currently rank first in yards allowed but 23rd in points allowed, largely due to turnovers and non-defense-related touchdowns. The Packers, who relied heavily on their run game last week, may not replicate their 250+ rushing yards, making the Titans a strong pick to win and cover.

Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals)

• Spread: -3 | Win Odds: 59% | Pick Popularity: 61%
  Detroit outgained their opponent by more than 200 yards last week (463 to 216), a scenario where teams have won 91% of the time since 2014. However, critical mistakes cost them the game. Arizona is coming off an upset win over the Rams, but with a 59% win probability, the Lions are in a good position to bounce back this week.

Philadelphia Eagles (at New Orleans Saints)

• Spread: +2.5 | Win Odds: 48% | Pick Popularity: 35%
  The Saints lead the NFL in points scored and point differential after a dominant 44-19 win over Dallas. However, the Eagles present upset potential with 48% win odds and just 35% pick popularity. While the public leans toward New Orleans, Philadelphia could provide strong value as underdogs.

Chicago Bears (at Indianapolis Colts)

• Spread: +1 | Win Odds: 49% | Pick Popularity: 43%
  The Bears and Colts appear evenly matched, but public opinion slightly favors Indianapolis. Chicago’s offense has struggled, but with the Colts also underperforming, the Bears offer some value in what is predicted to be a close matchup.

Carolina Panthers (at Las Vegas Raiders)

• Spread: +5 | Win Odds: 36% | Pick Popularity: 18%
  The Raiders pulled off a big upset last week and are now popular favorites. However, Carolina’s switch to veteran QB Andy Dalton could give them a boost. With the line already moving in response, it suggests that the Panthers could be a strong underdog pick, especially in larger pools.

Whether in game-winner contests, point spread contests, confidence contests, or contests with season and/or weekly prizes, the PoolGenius 2024 Football Pick'Em product has you covered. Try the PoolGenius 2024 Football Pick'Em product with a 3-day free trial.