Week 3 Survivor Analysis From PoolGenius

In Week 2 of the NFL slate, underdogs won more than half of the games outright, with the two biggest favorites losing. Teams favored by five or more went just 2-4, leading to a significant shake-up in survivor pools. On average, only 43% of public entries advanced, and just 26% of participants remain in contests that started in Week 1.

If you have joined one of Splash’s Survivor Revival contests, you can use PoolGenius to customize your pool settings, including the starting week, and receive personalized recommendations and tools that fit your specific pool.

Five Most Popular Week 3 Survivor Picks

Here are the most popular teams early on for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season:

1. Las Vegas Raiders (23%) vs. Carolina Panthers
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21%) vs. Denver Broncos
3. Cleveland Browns (13%) vs. New York Giants
4. Cincinnati Bengals (12%) vs. Washington Commanders (MON)
5. New York Jets (9%) vs. New England Patriots (THU)

Breaking Down the Teams

Las Vegas Raiders (22% Popularity, 72% Win Odds)
The Raiders were the most popular team to pick against in Week 2 and are now the most popular pick for Week 3, facing a Panthers team that has lost its first two games by an average of 30 points. However, the Panthers have switched quarterbacks, benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton, which has shifted the betting lines. The Raiders have low future value, but their high popularity lowers their expected value (EV) compared to other teams this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22% Popularity, 64% Win Odds)
Tampa Bay was the second-biggest underdog last week and is now the second-most popular pick in Week 3, facing Denver. The Broncos are off to a 0-2 start and rank 30th in scoring. Tampa Bay has limited future value, mainly concentrated later in the season. Their EV is decent but not exceptional, as they rank third in win odds for the week.

Cleveland Browns (13% Popularity, 69% Win Odds)
Cleveland faces the Giants at home after pulling off an upset on the road last week. Normally, the Browns would be more popular given their low future value and a weak opponent. However, with teams like the Raiders and Buccaneers facing similarly weak opponents, Cleveland’s pick popularity remains lower. They offer solid EV and win odds slightly above the Raiders this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (12% Popularity, 77% Win Odds)
The Bengals are coming off a close loss to Kansas City and enter Week 3 at 0-2. They hold the highest market win odds at 77%. Given their lower pick popularity compared to teams like the Raiders, their EV is strong. However, the Bengals have more future value than most of the popular Week 3 picks.

New York Jets (9% Popularity, 71% Win Odds)
The Jets kick off Week 3 against the Patriots on Thursday night. Their EV is solid, with win odds similar to the top picks but at lower popularity. The Jets also hold higher future value than the other teams mentioned, with their most favorable future matchup coming next week against Denver at home.

These are only five teams you might consider, depending on your specific pool. Check out PoolGenius for customized pick recommendations tailored for your survivor pools.

Get Survivor Picks 3-Day Free Trial Available 

Get Pick’em Contest Picks 3-Day Free Trial Available