Each week I’ll be breaking down my strategy for a single entry into the $21M Survivor contest, using the PredictQ Survivor Optimizer to help along the way.
Week 4 centers around two very chalky teams, both 10+ point favorites.
MIN: Minnesota is a 10.5-point favorite over Miami, around 78% to win, and projected at around 43% of entries. The clear chalk.
BAL: Baltimore is an 11.5-point favorite over Tennessee, around 80% to win, and projected at around 30%. Second most popular but a team with a strong remaining schedule, including a Week 16 matchup vs Cleveland in a double week (big if you can actually get there).
That is close to three quarters of the field riding on two games. Outside of those two, we don’t expect any team to garner double digit ownership.
My lean right now is to take the chalk as not only is Miami a next-level bad team, but the Vikings next highest projected game is only 4.5 vs Atlanta. I say take the Vikings and live to see another week. If you’re feeling frisky, I like ARI as 2.5 point favorites and sub 2% ownership on the road vs Jameis Winston and the Giants.
