Each week I’ll be breaking down my strategy for a single entry into the $21M Survivor contest, using the PredictQ Survivor Optimizer to help along the way.
Week 5 has no easy button. Four teams are favored by a touchdown or more but not one of them reaches double digits. The PredictQ optimizer projects 32% of the field out by Sunday night, the highest number of the season.
Breaking down the favorites:
DAL: Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay on Thursday, around 74% to win, projected at around 24% of entries. The Cowboys are also giving up 28 points a game, fifth worst in the league. That is a lot of trust to hand a defense that has not earned it.
HOU: Houston is a 7.5-point favorite at Tennessee, around 71% to win, projected to be picked at around 20%. An 0-4 team on the road as the second highest picked team is pretty crazy in Week 5.
CIN: -7, also on the road, with Ja'Marr Chase in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins day-to-day with an adductor. Hard to trust if both top WRs are out.
That leaves Jacksonville and the model is aligned with it being one of the top choices. The Jaguars are a 7-point home favorite over Philadelphia, around 70% to win at around 15% of entries. Jacksonville is allowing only 13.2 points a game, second best in the league, against an Eagles offense scoring only 18.8 with a skeleton offensive. The hesitation is Week 12, when Jacksonville hosts an 0-4 Tennessee team on a double pick week.
Two quarterbacks are worth watching before kickoff. Jay Glazer reported Monday that Washington is planning on Jayden Daniels starting against the Giants, which would make a 3.5-point home favorite a lot more interesting at 6% of entries. Lamar Jackson has an ankle sprain and an outside chance to play at Atlanta, though Atlanta is already favored by 3.5 at home over a 3-1 Baltimore team, so not sure how much movement we’d get once announced Lamar is out.