What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 2
What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 2
Users on RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports have offered up their picks for Week 2, and it’s time to break down what we can expect from this edition of NFL action based on those selections.
In my arsenal is Splash users’ pick data for every NFL game against the spread and the percentage of survivor players who put their weight behind each of the 32 teams taking the field this week. With that information, we can make some guesses on how the Splash universe anticipates Week 2 to go.
You can find what Splash users thought would happen in Week 1 here.
Everybody Believes In…
The Dallas Cowboys. Matched up with the Jets at Jerry World this week, the Cowboys are the second-most popular pick among Splash users in this week’s edition of NFL survivor, attracting 15.91 percent of players. Dallas is also favored by 9.5 points, and 54 percent of Splash users not only think the Cowboys will conquer their second New York squad in as many weeks, but they’ll do it by 10 points or more.
Dominant is an understatement to describe how Dallas dealt with the Giants in Week 1. Conversely, the Jets upset the Bills on Monday, but they lost their brand-new quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the process. To Splash users, this is one of the most foregone conclusions of the week.
Similarly, 54 percent of Splash pickers went for the Bills to cover the 8.5-point spread at home against the Raiders, and Buffalo was the most popular survivor pick of the week at 25.73 percent. Splash users also believe in the Giants to bounce back from last week’s embarrassment, with 59 percent of picks anticipating the G-Men to cover the 5.5 points Vegas has given them for their contest against the Cardinals in Arizona. Survivor players have also awarded New York with the third-most picks as well, with 12.14 percent of competitors choosing the Giants as their team for Week 2.
Nobody Believes In…
The Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags were the most common pick to cover the spread in Week 1 against the Colts, which they did, but they’re now near the bottom for belief among Splash pickers in Week 2. Jacksonville hosts Kansas City on Sunday, and Splash pickers are all-in on the Chiefs despite their loss to the Lions to kickstart the campaign.
The Jaguars received the smallest percentage of picks in survivor (0.04%), and 70 percent of Splash users predicted the Chiefs to cover the 2.5-point spread in their favor, the third-highest percentage of picks for any team against the spread this week. It seems that Splash pickers are somewhat weary of the upset with only 1.35 percent of survivor players opting for Kansas City, but there’s more at play in survivor picks than that, and there’s certainly no confidence in the consensus that Jacksonville will start the season 2-0.
Possible Survivor Value Pick
The Eagles are favored by 7.5 points in their Thursday night showdown versus the Vikings in Philadelphia. Splash pickers displayed quite a bit of confidence in the hometown to win the game with 54 percent predicting the Eagles to not only come away victorious but cover the spread, too.
But Philly is only the fifth-most common choice in survivor this week with 8.95 percent of the picks. That’s fewer than the Giants, who received 12.14 percent of survivor picks after looking horrendous to open the season and traveling to Arizona for a road rumble on the other side of the country. If you wanted to pick a favorite who doesn’t have a ton of survivor attention this week, the Eagles might be it.
Group Consensus: Saints Cover
If there is one thing that Splash users are certain of this week, it’s that the Saints will cover the spread in its divisional date in Charlotte with the Panthers – 77 percent of Splash pickers went for New Orleans to overcome the 2.5 points allotted to Carolina. No other spread received as lopsided of a reaction.
New Orleans narrowly eked by Tennessee in Week 1, 16-15, while the Panthers had some struggles in their opener against the Falcons, 24-10. Even though this one will be played in North Carolina, Splash pickers see something in the Saints – or see nothing in the Panthers – to convince them that this line is getting crossed.
Most Controversial Contest
The Commanders were a hot pick in survivor last week and did just enough to validate that support. Now in Week 2, Splash users are backing Washington again, albeit in a different way.
Sam Howell’s team goes to Denver this Sunday, and the home Broncos are favored by 3.5 points. The Splash audience is almost completely split on how to handle that spread, with 52 percent going with the road challengers to keep it within at least three and 48 percent opting for the Mile High defenders to win by four or more. This is only one of two games this week in which the majority of Splash users went for the underdog over the favorite when picking against the spread.
Even more strange: Splash survivor players have more faith in Denver than Washington. The Broncos received 2.49 percent of survivor selections this week, nothing crazy but still enough to be among the top 10 for most popular picks in the game. Meanwhile, the Commanders pulled just 0.19 percent of survivor picks, ranking them among the least popular options in Splash’s NFL survivor for Week 2.
Basically, there seems to be little consensus on what is actually going to happen on the field in Denver this weekend. If you want a game where seemingly anything could happen, this is the one Splash pickers inadvertently chose.
After handling the Texans in Week 1, the Ravens are on their way to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that’s licking its wounds following a 24-3 demolition at the hands of the Browns. Odds makers have given the Bengals a 3.5-point cushion, but only 42 percent of Splash pickers think they’ll cover it.
This is the other outing that convinced the majority of Splash pickers to go for the underdog against the spread. That tells me that either Splash pickers think the spread is too generous to Cincinnati, that Baltimore will win the game outright, or both. Either way, the Bengals are on upset alert, at least in Splash users’ minds.
With 62 percent of picks predicting the 49ers to cover the 7.5-point spread against the Rams, it seems clear what Splash users think of this matchup. Add in that San Francisco attracted the fourth-most support among survivor players this week (9.74 percent), and the picture becomes clearer: Splash pickers don’t expect a good one when the Niners go south to LA.
Both teams come into this contest sporting 1-0 records, both earning their victories in convincing fashion. San Francisco dismantled Pittsburgh from the opening snap, 30-7, while Los Angeles took care of Seattle, 30-13, to start the season right. The 7.5-point spread is one of the biggest of the week, but none of the other large spreads had this wide of a margin for the favorites to cover. Even though the Rams are this weekend’s hosts, Splash pickers are strongly in support of the visiting Niners.
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