What Went Wrong in QuickPicks Last Week?

Each week in QuickPicks, certain players and projection types dominate the board. But popularity doesn’t always equal performance.

We looked back at last week’s most-picked plays to break down where things went wrong, everything from the projection types that underdelivered to the stars who left users shaking their heads.

Points Projections Let Everyone Down

Points was the most picked projection type last week, accounting for over 20 percent of all entries. Despite the volume, it barely broke 50 percent in correct pick rate. That means if you were leaning heavily on players to hit their scoring projections, you were flipping a coin at best. Points are fun to root for, but once again, the data shows they can be some of the most unpredictable.

Anthony Edwards: Tons of Picks, Just 43 Percent Accuracy

No one drew more picks than Anthony Edwards to go More on points. But just 43.8 percent of those were correct. That’s a brutal hit rate for the most-picked play of the week. Edwards is going up against one of, if not the best defense in the league in the Oklahoma City Thunder during the Western Conference Finals, which makes his points projection a volitale one to project. Ant is capable of going off on any given night, but as we saw last night, he's not a lock to go over his projection.

Tyrese Haliburton: High Volume, Low Return

Tyrese Haliburton was tied for the fourth-most picked player on his More points projection last week. His correct pick rate? Just 33.96 percent. That made him one of the week’s most costly picks, especially for users stacking NBA guards. The Pacers have benefitted from a few blowouts during the Eastern Conference Finals, which at times can lead to stars like Haliburton sitting late in the game, affecting their projections. After the Game 1 OT thriller, many users likely banked on Haliburton replicating his scoring performance, which hasn't happened during the rest of the series. Use caution when riding the hot hand.

Rebounds and Strikeouts Were Surprisingly Volatile

Rebounds and strikeouts are usually more stable projection types. But last week, both posted shaky numbers. Strikeouts hit less 49 percent of the time. Rebounds were slightly better, but still left plenty of users guessing. If you were leaning on arms or boards for your edges, you likely felt the swing.

What To Learn From It

Not every bad week is predictable, but the trends matter. The most popular pick types and players often carry inflated expectations, and the more people pile on, the more fragile those projections become in peer-to-peer contests.

When everyone is leaning in the same direction, the edge usually lives in going the other way.

We’ll be back next week with a fresh recap and a closer look at the data behind what’s hitting and what isn’t.