Why the Dolphins Will Bounce Back This Week

The Dolphins were thoroughly outclassed in Buffalo on Sunday. Josh Allen and the Bills ran their defense ragged, and Miami’s high-powered offense didn’t record a point in the last 24 minutes of the contest. One week after becoming the third-ever NFL team to drop 70 in a game, the Dolphins demoralized.

A 28-point dud might scare some people off of the ‘Phins, but not Splash. Miami is our Lock of the Week for Week 5. That means that if you go with the Dolphins to get by the Giants as your first pick in our NFL $50K Big Blue Splash Survivor Revival, you’re in no jeopardy of losing your money this week. If the Dolphins lose, we'll refund one of your entries. Simple as that. That’s how sure we are of a bounce-back performance from the Dolphins.

You might think this is a curious decision. Locking a team that just lost by four touchdowns could be called unconventional. But there are a handful of reasons to like Miami’s prospects in this home matchup with the Giants.

The Giants Aren’t the Bills, Especially on Defense

The most important distinction between last week and this week is the opposition. The Bills have one the most formidable defenses in the NFL, allowing the second-fewest points per game of any team in the league (13.8) and holding opponents to 288.0 total yards of offense per outing. They are excellent at forcing turnovers – their 11 takeaways through four games are the most of any NFL defense – and the Bills sacked the opposing quarterback 16 times so far.

The Giants are none of these things. Through three games, New York is yet to keep a single competitor from putting up at least 30 on the scoreboard, and they’ve been gashed for an average of 316.7 yards per contest. The Giants are the last team in the NFL to have still not forced a turnover, and their defense as a whole has registered two sacks in 2023.

It will be a completely different defense gameplanning to contain this ‘Phins attack this Sunday compared to last. The Giants defense is much closer in quality to the Broncos defense that the Dolphins hung 70 on than the Bills defense that halted them at 20.

This is to say nothing about the glaringly obvious contrasts in other aspects of the sport between the Giants and their in-state neighbors to the north. The Dolphins aren’t outstanding on the defensive side of the ball, especially their secondary, and Allen punished them severely for those deficiencies – the Bills QB dished for 320 yards and connected on 21 of his 25 passing attempts, four of them touchdowns.

Will Daniel Jones be able to exploit those weaknesses with the same veracity? Probably not. The separation between Jones and Allen notwithstanding, one of them is aiming for Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins while the other targets Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Jones threw four interceptions in the first three games of the season and has completed fewer than 65 percent of his passing attempts. It took the Giants seven quarters to score their first points of the campaign.

The Bills and Giants are not the same.

Tua & The Gang

Miami didn’t stop having one of the best offenses in the NFL because of a half of struggles on the road to one of the top defenses in football. On Sunday, we learned that the Dolphins have some room to grow offensively before we can have confidence in them demolishing the elite defenses of this league, but we’ve already seen what they can do against the vulnerable. And on the scale of vulnerable or not, we know which way the Giants defense registers.

Tyreek Hill is one of the deadliest weapons in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa currently leads the league in passing yards with 1,306. Rookie De’Von Achane, the No. 84 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Texas A&M, has been one of this season’s brightest budding stars in its opening weeks. The Dolphins are atop the league in yards per game, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, and points per game.

Boiling it down to stats this early in the season is too simple of a view, especially when you consider how much heavy lifting an anomalous 70-point explosion is doing to the averages – if you’re holding your breath for a repeat on that level, I hope you have good insurance. But it’s not as though the Dolphins were poor with the ball last season. They finished the 2022 campaign at fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (265.0) and sixth in total yards per game (364.5). With much of the same roster and coaching staff, we can safely assume that this will remain one of the better offenses in the NFL.

There are some serious issues the Dolphins need to address on their offensive line, and that is a real cause for concern for their seriousness as contenders in the AFC, let alone for the AFC East crown. But we’re not predicting the Super Bowl champions here. This is just about the outcome of one single regular season outing. This offensive unit will be an intimidating prospect for the Giants to handle regardless of how well the Bills tackled the challenge.

Our Lock of the Week Track Record

Shall we run through our Lock of the Week picks so far in 2023? Baltimore in Week 1: hit. Dallas in Week 2: hit. Kansas City in Week 3: hit. San Francisco in Week 4: hit. I think I’m noticing a trend.

If you have followed our advice since the start of the season, or even if you joined a revival game after elimination, we’ve helped you get one step closer to the money every week.

The Dolphins are better than the Giants on both sides of the ball. Some of the most explosive players in the league will line up for Miami this weekend. And to top it all off, the ‘Phins are 7-2 in games at Hard Rock Stadium under the guise of head coach Mike McDaniel. Want to guess where this one will be played?

It’s impossible to miss if you pick the Dolphins for Week 5 in the Big Blue Splash Survivor Revival with a grand prize worth more than $50,000. Even with a loss, you get one of your entry fees right back to try again next week. You can’t beat those odds.

So, what’s it going to be? Do you want to survive or not?