Maximizing Your Edge: Understanding Leverage in NCAAB Survivor Contests

Surviving Days 1 and 2 of March Madness gives you a massive advantage in Survivor contests. Last year, 98.76% of all entries across Splash were eliminated on Day 1 of the tournament. Of the people that survived, another 98.33% were eliminated on Day 2. If you can survive the carnage, you're set up for success in your contest. Let's look at leverage and how it can help your entries survive this March Madness.

Understanding Leverage

Leverage for Survivor contests involves choosing the least popular team with the highest chance to win. We'll use Day 1 and 2 betting favorites combined with their pick percentage across all contests on Splash. By knowing the percentage of contest participants on Splash who have chosen each team and the implied odds of that team winning derived from sportsbook lines, you can put yourself in a position to advance. Plus, you get the added benefit of using teams that have been overlooked by other users on Splash, setting you up to have a unique selection of teams left in your arsenal as the tournament goes on.

‍Day 1

On Day 1, three teams stand out: Louisville, Kansas, and Missouri. It's probably smart to avoid teams like Wisconsin and Texas Tech who are massively over-leveraged on Day 1, as an upset to either of those two teams would cause chaos and carnage.

Understanding why a team might be over-leveraged can also play to your advantage as a Survivor player. Let's take Wisconsin as an example. The easy theory on why they have so many Day 1 backers is that they're in for an easy win against Montana. This is true, but their path also plays into it. Assuming they win Round 2, they go up against the winner of BYU-VCU, both of which could cause trouble for the Badgers. Even if they win that game, they potentially run into Alabama in the Sweet 16, one of the best teams in the country. Identifying leverage is key, but understanding why takes your game to the next level.

Day 2

Marquette and Saint Mary's are two teams to consider. While shorter betting favorites than some other teams on Day 2, their small pick percentage make both teams a worthy option of a Day 2 pick.

Remember: leverage isn't everything, but it certainly helps. In any Survivor contest, it's smart to avoid what you think the most popular pick will be, especially in March Madness Survivor contests. Once you've picked your path, compete for $1M in guaranteed cash in the Survivor Madness World Championship.