NBA Fantasy Tiers: Minnesota Timberwolves Players

Minnesota Timberwolves, 17-4, 1st in Northwest Division

Dec 11 - Dec 18 games: @ New Orleans, @ Dallas, vs Indiana, @ Miami

Per game stats 2023: 113.0 PPG, 45.9 REB, 25.3 AST, 7.2 STL, 6.6 BLK, 48.1 FG%, 36.7 3PT%, 79.6 FT%

Players to watch - 2023 season averages

SG Anthony Edwards - 24.4 PPG, 5.6 REB, 4.8 AST

C Karl-Anthony Towns - 21.9 PPG, 9.0 REB, 3.1 AST

C Rudy Gobert - 13.5 PPG, 12.4 REB, 1.1 AST

Introduction

The Minnesota Timberwolves have opened up the 2023/24 NBA season with a howl. Sitting at 17-4 to enter the week and 1st in the Northwest Division, the Timberwolves have won nine of their last 10 games, including all four of their away games in that span.

Minnesota gets things done with defense, allowing just 105 PPG on average this season, the best in the NBA, with an average margin of victory of 7.8 points. The T-Wolves FG% and 3PT% are a little better than league average, and they are a top-10 rebounding team, which is not surprising given Minnesota’s size inside.

Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert are legit 7-footers with wide bodies who between them account for 36 points and 21 rebounds per game. Gobert averages a solid double-double and a couple blocks per game, while Anthony-Towns chips-in 20-plus points and 9 boards of his own. Anthony Edwards is the team’s leading scorer and a capable though not spectacular defender.

This week’s Minnesota Timberwolves schedule features four games: three on the road and one at home, all against different opponents with winning records -- the Pelicans, Mavericks, Pacers and Heat. How will the Minnesota Timberwolves and their key players do this week? Let’s get into with a look at every matchup, and spotlight a player who can stand out in each game.

@ New Orleans Pelicans, December 11th

On December 11, the Timberwolves will travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans, who sit at 12-11 and second in the Southwest Division, but who are a better team at home (8-4). The Pelicans are average shooters from the field and beyond the three point line, and below average from the free throw line. They turn the ball over less than average, and the team assist to turnover ratio is good at 2.0:1. Minnesota has beaten New Orleans twice already this season; once at home and once away. So why are the T-Wolves the underdog in this game?  

Perhaps the oddsmakers believe that the Pelicans' combined game at the SG/SF positions is more than Minnesota will be able to handle on the road. When he’s on the court at the same time as SF Brandon Ingram and PF Zion Williamson, SG CJ McCollum is very difficult for the T-Wolves to match-up against. When he is on his game, McCollum is a double-double threat with the ability to feed to his better-shooting teammates. This will put pressure on the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards, who needs to have a night of his own for Minnesota to take this tricky game on the road as underdogs.

@ Dallas Mavericks, December 14th

On December 14, Minnesota will travel to Dallas to play the 13-8 Mavericks, who sit at first in the Southwest Division entering the week. The Mavericks have been unpredictable so far in 2023, having failed to win more than two games in a row since the first week of the NBA season. The Mavericks are a high scoring team (119 PPG), despite posting fairly pedestrian team averages from the field, foul line, and three point land. One interesting note: Dallas’ assist to turnover ratio as a team is among the best in the league at 2.3:1 -- in other words, they are efficient with possession of the ball.

The Mavericks are led by All-World PG Luka Doncic (31.9 PPG, 8.4 REB, 8.7 AST) -- one of the NBA’s legit triple-double threats every time he takes the court. The other guy to watch in this game will be first round pick, C Derrick Lively II, who is off to a pretty good start in his rookie season. At 7’1”, Lively II has the height to play with Rudy Gobert, but he lacks a little of the same mass, as well as game experience. I expect the Mavericks big man will battle, but get worn down inside by Gobert and Anthony-Towns as the game winds into the fourth quarter. REBs will be the difference-maker in this one, I think.

vs Indiana Pacers, December 16th

On December 16, the Timberwolves are back in Minnesota to host the Indiana Pacers (12-8, second in the Central Division). Stylistically, the Pacers could not be much more different from the Timberwolves. Indiana is the best assists team in the league at 30.2 per game. They also post one of the league’s best assist to turnover ratios at 2.5:1. The Pacers are a high-scoring machine (128.1 PPG) that plays pretty good defense and uses their fouls. They are a poor rebounding team, but that’s not their game, and they have a winning record on the road.

PG Tyrese Haliburton is the center of everything for the Pacers. Haliburton leads the team (and league) with 12.1 assists per game, while also averaging nearly 27 points off 52.2 FG% and 44.1 3PT%. To be clear, the Timberwolves have no-one that even gets close to matching up with Haliburton in terms of total production from the same position. I believe this is actually a trap game for Minnesota and the Pacers are well-poised to win in an upset on the night if Haliburton gets into a groove shooting and distributing the ball.

@ Miami Heat, December 18th

Finally, on December 18, the Timberwolves wrap their week on the road to the Miami Heat (12-10, second in Southeast Division). The Heat have been up and down this season, losing four in a row early, then winning eight straight, only to drop back to sub-500 ball again over the last few weeks. The Heat are a below average scoring and rebounding team (112.4 PPG, 40.7 REB), though their assist to turnover ratio is pretty good at 2:1.1. The Heat love to let the three point shot fly (33 attempts per game, 38.1 3PT%). Despite a lot of flash, the Heat enjoy no particular advantage on their home court.

PG Tyler Herro and SF Jimmy Butler are the show for the Heat, but the most important guy on the court for Miami on the night will be C Bam Adebayo, who will be called-on to bang with the Timberwolves’ twin towers of Karl Anthony-Towns and Gobert. Adebayo is a double-double player (22 points and 10 rebounds per game), and a decent defender, but he gives away three or four inches inside to the T-Wolves big men. Absent some spectacular shooting from the field on the night by the Heat, I just don’t see any way that the T-Wolves lose this game.

The Verdict

With four games over a seven day window, three of those on the road, and all against opponents with a winning record, the Minnesota Timberwolves are in for a challenging week on the court. The question to be answered this week is: How will the NBA’s best defense stand-up on the road against better scoring teams?

On December 8, the New Orleans Pelicans will try to pressure Anthony Edwards into a bad game. On December 14, Minnesota will try to contain Luka Doncic outside and lean on Derrick Lively II inside. On December 16, it’s back home, but there’s no rest as Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers bring the league’s top offense to town. Finally, the T-Wolves wrap their week with one more road game, this time against a Miami team that I think Minnesota is much better than.

All-in-all, I like the Minnesota Timberwolves to 2-2 or 3-1 on the week. The home game against the Pacers and the road trip to Dallas loom especially large. I think Anthony Edwards has some very tough matchups for Minnesota this week and I think Rudy Gobert has some very good ones. Look for him and the T-Wolves to post better than average rebound numbers on the week.