NFL Survivor Clean Slate Week 6: Washington Was a Bad Choice

If you’re responsible for part of the roughly 10 percent of Splash NFL Survivor entries that picked the Commanders to beat the Bears, then you didn’t even make it to Sunday. It was over before it even began.

While the most likely, that’s not the only way you could have found yourself here. For those who didn’t make it through Week 5, the available option is now the Splash NFL Survivor Revival contest with a grand prize of $15,000.

I want to help you make an informed decision for your attempted Revival in Week 6. I also want to offer insight for those who didn’t make a mistake last week and don’t need a revival but continued survival – significantly more Splash Survivor players went for the Lions and Dolphins, and they have picks to make this week, too. Plus, NFL Survivor players have different tactics. Some go for the biggest favorite they can find each week. Others want to work out weeks in advance and strategize with a larger scope.

But before we get into the Week 6 details, let’s remember the Ls of Week 5: an opportunity for reeducation for those who need it.

In Memoriam

With 9.45 percent of all entries, the Commanders had the third-most backing of any team in Splash NFL Survivor contests. The general consensus was that Washington would dish out another defeat to the winless Bears after the Commanders took the Eagles to overtime in Philadelphia in Week 4. It was not to be.

Justin Fields threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns, D.J. Moore the main recipient of his arm to the jaw-dropping tune of eight receptions, 230 yards, and three touchdowns. By halftime, the Bears had bolted to a 27-3 advantage – the Commanders were out of this one from the beginning. But what you wanted to see if you staked your survival on them.

The next biggest shoe to drop happened in Pittsburgh. The Ravens amassed 1.85 percent of entries, but Baltimore couldn’t conquer the challenge at Heinz Field, falling to the Steelers for the sixth time in seven tries, 17-10.

To the 0.66 percent of you who picked the Texans to win in Atlanta: close by no cigar.

If You Want Guaranteed Safety…

Go for the Eagles over the Jets.

Philadelphia is Splash’s Week 6 Lock of the Week, which means that new entries submitted in the Week 6 NFL Survivor Revival contest that pick the Eagles as their team this week will get their money back (up to one entry - a $10 value) if the Jets pull off the upset. Basically, so long as you pick Philly, you can’t lose.

Of course, there are other reasons to believe in the Birds. Philadelphia statistically has one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging better than 400 total yards per game and the fifth-most points per contest in the league (28.2). Jalen Hurts is giving defenses fits with his dual-threat abilities, and he has a wealth of weapons in his surrounding arsenal. There are very few defenses in the NFL that will do well at containing this offensive unit all year long.

The Jets defense is probably not among them. It has been able to bend without breaking for a good portion of the year, largely due to its prowess against the pass. But on the ground, New York has been one of the league’s worst – the 146.2 rushing yards per outing the defense has allowed is the fourth-most in the NFL. The Eagles ground attack, headed by Hurts and D’Andre Swift, averages the second-most yards per game of any in the league (164.0). That’s what we in the business call a bad matchup.

Add in Zach Wilson’s known deficiencies and one of the more vicious front sevens the NFL has to offer opposing him, and most signs point to the Eagles flying to victory. The game will be played in East Rutherford, and Philadelphia’s secondary has been a question mark up to this point. If the Jets passing game is able to exploit that and keep the crowd in the game, maybe an upset could be on the cards, but the likelihood of that is not very high.

Splash is now 5-0 in our Lock of the Week picks after the Dolphins did what we said they would in Week 5. If you went with us every time, then you’re in a great place. The gravy train keeps chugging. Why get off now?

If You Want the Week’s Biggest Favorite…

Go for the Bills over the Giants.

There are multiple matchups with big spreads this week. Early lines have the Dolphins as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers, and the Chiefs are favored by 10.5 points in their meeting with the Broncos at Arrowhead on Thursday. But none have a spread the size of Buffalo and New York.

Buffalo has been granted a 14-point nod in advance of this in-state clash, a simultaneous sign of respect and disrespect for the Bills and Giants, respectively. Buffalo isn’t coming this one with a win having capitulated to the Jaguars in London over the weekend, but oddsmakers don’t care; the Giants are carrying enough of whatever the opposite of momentum is for one Bills defeat on another continent to matter.

The Giants defense has not kept an opponent below 24 points in five chances. It is allowing the third-most yards on the ground per game of any defense in the NFL (151.4), the sixth-most total yards per game (378.0), and has the second-lowest sack percentage in the league (3.2). New York’s front seven has been routinely bullied, and it is abysmal at applying pressure on the quarterback. Unfortunately for the G-Men, Buffalo has one of the best QBs in the biz. If Josh Allen is given time in the pocket like he most likely will this Sunday night in Orchard Park, he can destroy you.

https://twitter.com/Damn_Daxx/status/1711220998672916954

On the other side of the ball, the Giants might be without Daniel Jones thanks to a neck injury he suffered in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, with Tyrod Taylor the next man up if necessary. It’s not as though Jones has lit it up this season, but with how the Giants have protected him, whoever is back there won’t stand much of a chance. Former Giants running back Tiki Barber outlined the situation on New York radio this week.

“(Jones) is getting obliterated, and I don’t know if I would want him back there with this offensive line,” he said. “The Giants need to do something different. Otherwise, he’s not going to make it through the season. … It’s malpractice what they’re doing with him and the offensive line is so bad. I would be scared to be back there.”

Does that sound like a team likely to shock the world in Buffalo? Not to me either.

If You Want a Value Pick…

Last week, I suggested that the Commanders could be a value pick over the Bears. In earnest, I didn’t expect so many people to go for Washington in Survivor and thought I was shedding light on a pick that would receive less than 2 percent of entries, not almost 10 percent. I promise to be better this time.

The Rams sit at 2-3, eking out wins at Seattle and at Indianapolis in a tough five-game opening stretch to the 2023 campaign. They now welcome the Cardinals in Week 6 in what is, on paper, one of the easiest contests on their entire schedule.

There are some issues with this Rams team: the running game has been sputtering, their defense isn’t getting to the quarterback enough, they’ve only forced three takeaways the whole season, and they’re giving up points on more than 43 percent of drives against them, which is among the bottom 10 in the league.

But LA’s passing game is electric. The Rams have one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL right now, with Matthew Stafford expertly slinging the ball around even before Cooper Kupp was ready to see the field. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have burst onto the scene in a major way, and opposing secondaries have their hands full every time they share a stadium with the Rams.

The Cardinals just got done allowing Joe Burrow to beat them for more than 300 passing yards and three touchdowns while Ja’Marr Chase had 15 receptions for 192 yards and three TDs. This comes after the Bengals offense has struggled to do much of anything through the first four weeks of the season. Arizona is giving up 251.4 yards per game through the air and has one of the few defenses in the league allowing scores on a higher percentage of possessions than the Rams (45.1 percent). And on the other side of the ball, it seems more likely that James Conner has been placed on IR and will not be available for Jonathan Gannon this weekend.

I suspect that the Rams will register a solid number of Splash NFL Survivor entries this week, but with so many lopsided matchups in Week 6, I don’t think this one will get as much attention from Survivor players as Giants at Bills, Broncos at Chiefs, Panthers at Dolphins, or Eagles at Jets. If you want to go for a 6.5-point favorite at home against 1-4 opposition without using one of the usual suspects, the Rams look like a good decision to go.