The Sharp Side of Different Projection Types

In QuickPicks, choosing More or Less isn’t just about instincts. Since you're playing against other users, finding the edge is about identifying where the crowd is getting it wrong — and where the numbers tell a different story.

We analyzed thousands of picks across all major projection types. Here’s what we found about where the sharpest players are finding value, and which projection types are consistently misplayed by the public.

Points: More Is Popular, But Less Hits

Points is the most-picked projection type on the platform by a wide margin. Almost 70 percent of picks lean toward More, which makes sense. Scoring is fun to root for, and star players are known for putting up big numbers. But the Less side is actually hitting at a higher rate, with correct pick percentages nearing 57 percent. That tells us players are often overestimating scoring outcomes, especially in matchups where pace, defense, or recent form suggest otherwise.

If you’re blindly clicking More on points just because you see LeBron, Steph, KD, or Tatum on the board and think 'they're definitely scoring more than that', you may be following the crowd straight into a loss.

Three-Pointers: Don’t Sleep On More

Three-pointers made is one of the most misplayed projection types based on our data. While the public prefers the Less side about two-thirds of the time, the More picks have been significantly more accurate. In fact, More has hit nearly 58 percent of the time, especially for players with consistent volume from beyond the arc. This trend suggests that players are underestimating how often shooters clear relatively modest lines, even on off nights.

If you’re skipping More just because three-pointers feel risky, the numbers say you might be fading wins. Long live the three-ball.

Rebounds And Assists: Close To Even

Rebounds and assists are two of the most evenly matched projection types in terms of both volume and accuracy. The public doesn't strongly favor More or Less, and the correct pick percentages are split nearly 50-50. That makes these stats harder to exploit from a game theory perspective, but they reward research and matchup analysis. Think less about crowd psychology here and more about pace, defensive matchups, and recent usage trends.

For players who like grinding out an edge with analysis, this is where basketball IQ pays off.

Total Bases: The Quiet Edge

In MLB, total bases might be the most quietly misplayed projection type on the board. More picks are popular, often fueled by big-name hitters and recent home run highlights. But the Less side has actually been more accurate, catching users who chase upside without factoring in strikeout risk, walk rates, or batting order. This is especially true in matchups against elite pitching or colder weather games where offense is suppressed.

The key here is avoiding hype and leaning into context, which gives Less a surprising edge.

Earned Runs: Fade the Public

Earned runs projections are one of the most counterintuitive trends we uncovered. The public prefers Less by a wide margin, likely because no one wants to pick on pitchers getting hit around. But More has shown a strong hit rate in certain spots, especially when facing powerful lineups, short-rest rotations, or suspect bullpens. With pitch counts getting tighter and bullpens being used more aggressively, even a decent start can still result in two or three earned runs before the fifth inning.

Smart QuickPicks players aren’t afraid to pick More on earned runs, even when it feels uncomfortable.