What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 18

This weekend, the dream of a Super Bowl will end or continue for every team in the NFL that hasn’t yet been forced to come to terms with their 2023 reality, good or bad. For some, this week will be remembered for years to come. For others, this week will also be remembered for years to come, but begrudgingly.

It’s Week 18, so it’s time for everyone to put up or shut up. Five teams are in play for three playoff invitations in the AFC, and six sides are alive for just two bids in the NFC. Everybody else is jockeying for seeding or draft order.

Like in the lead up to every other week of this NFL season, I scoured through data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports to see what could be learned prior to the final set of this regular season’s clashes. Sorry in advance if this spoils anything. You have been warned.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Splash users have it all right. But where is the fun in waiting and seeing? Sports enthusiasts are not known for their patience. After 17 completed weeks of NFL episodes, this is how the finale will unfold, as told by the Splash masses. 

You can look back at how Splash users viewed Week 17 ahead of the action by clicking here.

Everybody Believes In…

The New Orleans Saints. 

The Saints will host the Falcons at the Superdome this Sunday to conclude their regular season and determine the fate of both teams, though ultimately neither of them are in control of their own destiny. New Orleans is still in the running for the NFC South title and for a wild card bid. To nab the No. 4 seed, the Saints have to win or tie this weekend, plus the Panthers need to do them a huge favor against the Bucs. If the Panthers fail, then to sneak into a wild card spot, the Saints would look to the Bears and Cardinals to do them a solid versus the Packers and Seahawks. Atlanta can’t afford a tie, but a victory and Carolina taking out Tampa Bay would make it the NFC South champion.

Whether New Orleans gets the help it requires from some of the worst teams in the league or not, Splash users at least believe in the team to hold up its end of the bargain. The Saints are 3.5-point favorites over the Falcons, and 76 percent of Splash pickers against the spread said that they will cover. That is the third-highest percentage any team received against its line this week. 

Splash Survivor players have confidence in the Saints, too. New Orleans obtained the eight-most entries of any team in Week 18 with 4.47 percent. Only 0.91 percent of entries went for the Falcons. The statement is clear.

It might not be enough to earn New Orleans a game on Wild Card Weekend, but Splash users have faith in the Saints to at least send the season off on a high note. 

Nobody Believes In…

The Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers will be in Baltimore this Saturday for a critical contest for the team’s future. There are ways in which Pittsburgh could still make the playoffs even without a notch on its belt over the Ravens, but unfortunately for Western PA, this is not a win-and-in situation for the Steelers. They will need some help in the form of losses or ties from some combination of the Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and/or Broncos. Regardless, taking care of business is always the better play.

If you ask the Splash community, it’s a stroke of luck for the Steelers that they could live to see another day even in the face of a defeat, because that defeat is imminent. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 points despite having to travel for the game and being four games behind Baltimore in the standings. That’s because the Ravens are resting several starters this weekend in preparation for the playoffs, including Lamar Jackson. But Splash pickers against the spread don’t care: 57 percent of them back Baltimore as the underdog. Splash Survivor players also show little faith in the Steelers, with just 0.37 percent of entries - the fifth-fewest of the week - attaching themselves to Pittsburgh. In comparison, the Ravens racked up the fifth-most entries this week with 6.24 percent.

The path to the playoffs for the Vikings is narrower; not only is it mandatory to beat the Lions on Sunday, but Seattle, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay or New Orleans all need to lose as well. According to Splash users, none of that is going to matter. 

The Lions are 3.5-point favorites against the Vikings, and 83 percent of Splash pickers against the spread expect a bigger win than that, which is the second-strongest that Splash pickers came out for any team in Week 18. In Splash Survivor, just 0.82 percent made Minnesota’s fate their own. 

The lack of belief in the Steelers is palpable, but Splash users hold similar distrust towards the Vikings. To them, both teams will limp out of the regular season. 

Possible Survivor Value Pick

If you are still alive in your Survivor contest, then congratulations on having a shot at all the chips. This is what it all comes down to.

The Jaguars have 2.28 percent of Splash Survivor entries in their corner in advance of their showdown at the Titans this Sunday. That ranks Jacksonville at No. 14 in the popularity list this week. But the Jags are 4.5-point favorites over Tennessee, and 72 percent of Splash pickers against the spread sided with Jacksonville to cover. 

Jacksonville is in a good position to reach the postseason twice in a row for the first time since the end of the ‘90s. The team remains vulnerable heading into Week 18, though, and the only way to secure its ticket to the playoffs is by transforming the 5-11 Titans into the 5-12 Titans. That’s some quality motivation in the final week of the regular season. 

Given what the pick data says, the Jaguars have the makings of a value pick at the conclusion of the Survivor campaign. With less than 3 percent of entries hooked to them, the Jags could be your way to the cash. 

Too Close To Call

Draft positioning is the only tangible thing the Patriots and Jets have to play for this Sunday. The playoffs are out of view for both franchises, and each are locked into their final finish within the AFC East. Pride is the biggest object on the line in Foxborough.

Perhaps this has played a role in Splash users’ collective uncertainty about this game’s outcome. A slight majority of Splash pickers against the spread - 53 percent - chose to back the favored Patriots in the face of a 2.5-point line, indicating a minor preference for the home team. New England also received a larger share of the Survivor spoils with 4.70 percent of all entries on their side, but it wasn’t by much - the Jets enticed 3.67 percent of entries to grant them the same power.

Opinions on this week’s pairings were largely lopsided. Splash users seem to think that they know what is coming in this last hurrah, but even with a bit of a bend towards New England, they are the most divided on the coming together between the Jets and Patriots.

Upset Alert

The Browns are 5.5-point underdogs in their road test at Cincinnati to close out the 2023 regular season this Sunday. This is despite Cleveland carrying a four-game win streak with it into the contest and the Bengals already eliminated from playoff contention thanks to dropping their last two outings in a row.

But, Cleveland has made its intentions known to relegate Joe Flacco and other key performers to the bench in Cincy. The No. 5 seed is locked for the Browns, so they have no reason to risk injury to some of their most prized assets. Jeff Driskel will become the fifth quarterback to start a game for Cleveland this season.

Splash pickers against the spread aren’t concerned with who the Browns have under center. Cleveland collected 59 percent support against the spread, comfortably circling Kevin Stefanski’s team as the most popular underdog of the week. Splash Survivor players were less excited about the self-sabotaged Browns with just 0.65 percent of entries on their side, approximately one-fifth of the support that went the Bengals’ way (3.35 percent).

It’s not a unanimous prediction. But Splash users aren’t throwing themselves at Cincinnati like they are at other favorites of comparable size. Based on pre-game spreads, the Bengals should be wary of the upset at home, or the failure that this season was will be an even more bitter pill to swallow all summer long.

Biggest Snoozefest

Tampa Bay is one win away from receiving its invitation to the next stage of the season. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, their final opponent of the regular season is the NFL’s bottom dweller.

The Panthers have persevered twice in 16 attempts. Not even a win this weekend would offer an opportunity to escape their location in the last spot in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucs bested four of their five most-recent opponents and have every reason to take Sunday seriously.

With 84 percent of Splash pickers backing the Buccaneers to cover the 5.5 points that bookmakers stuck between them and the Panthers, Splash users have anointed Tampa Bay as the most supported team against the spread in the league this week. The Bucs did almost as well among Splash Survivor players, convincing the second-highest number of entries across all contests to join their cause (11.18 percent). Splash users appear aware of what’s at stake - and what isn’t - this weekend in Charlotte.

Based on the uniform Splash user voice, Week 18 will share with us plenty of better games than this one. If you aren’t able to catch it, don’t worry about it.

Other Notables

• Green Bay is the most popular pick across Survivor contests this week with 16.22 percent of entries backing the Pack against the Bears. 
• The rest of the Survivor top five includes Tampa Bay (11.18 percent), Seattle (7.33 percent), Indianapolis (6.52 percent), and Baltimore (6.24 percent).
• The largest line of the week is 13.5 points between the Cowboys and Commanders, and it blows the rest out of the water. But it was not determined to be this week’s biggest snoozefest, because 52 percent of Splash pickers against the spread asserted that Washington will keep it closer than two scores. Plus, Tampa Bay had much more support from Survivor players than Dallas (3.75 percent).
• After the Bucs, Lions, and Saints, the Chiefs (73 percent), Jaguars (72 percent), Seahawks (72 percent), and Eagles (71 percent) received the most love against their respective spreads.
• A majority of Splash pickers against the spread went for five underdogs this week: the Browns, Commanders, Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens.