What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 17

The penultimate week of the NFL campaign is upon us. The league’s teams are promised just two more trips out onto the field this season. Anything more must be earned.

Six of the 14 playoff packages have been delivered. Three more NFC teams and five additional AFC outfits will entice the final eight invites to their front porches between more and the end of these next two weeks.

Who will get in? Who will be on the outside and envious? What will the path to the Super Bowl entail?

We will have these answers and more, but we’re impatient. At least, I’m impatient. I want to know what’s going to happen before it happens. That’s why I turn to the Splash masses spread across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports every week.

Is it foolproof? Absolutely not. You guys have had some rough picks as a collective this season, but who among us is without sin? For all the bad ones, Splash pickers have been right on plenty of occasions. There is strength in numbers.

Prior to this week’s kick off, we turn to Splash users for the 17th time in 2023 to again inform us of the NFL events soon to come. To check out how the Splash community did in predicting Week 16, click here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Kansas City Chiefs.

The last two AFC Championship Games involved the Bengals and Chiefs, and their relationship has grown to burn among the hottest of any in the contemporary NFL. Kansas City exacted revenge on Cincinnati last January to punch its ticket back to the Super Bowl, spoiling a three-game win streak the Bengals had built since late in the 2022 season.

These Bengals don’t quite have the same gravitas that those Bengals did, in large part thanks to Joe Burrow’s injury woes. The AFC West leaders are 7.5-point favorites in the Arrowhead affair, and Splash users feel good about their odds of ousting the visitors back home battered.

The smallest majority possible - 51 percent - of Splash pickers against the spread predicted the Chiefs to cover what is the fourth-widest line of Week 17. With such a distance between the Bengals and Chiefs according to the spread, it’s reasonable to assume that a good portion of the 49 percent that think that Cincinnati will stay with seven or better don’t believe that better will include victory. A Kansas City triumph is the assumption in the minds of most Splash pickers against the spread.

The Chiefs didn’t get a ton of love from Splash Survivor players this week, maybe because plenty of entries are likely to have already used them. Regardless, Kansas City did only attract 0.82 percent of entries. But the Bengals had next to nobody risk their future on the team’s ability to beat the Chiefs - Cincinnati corralled the second-fewest entries out of the league's 32 outfits with just 0.10 percent.

If you put stock in what the Splash population proclaims, then the Chiefs are already winners in your book.

Nobody Believes In…

The Detroit Lions. (honorable mention, Dolphins)

The Lions are 5.5-point underdogs in their road date at Dallas this Saturday in what is a crucial coming-together in the NFC playoff seeding race. The Cowboys need to win to stay afloat for the NFC East and the right to host a playoff game, and the Lions have their sights set on the conference’s No. 1 overall seed and a bye to the Divisional Round. There is much at stake at Jerry World, and Splash users don’t see things going the traveler’s direction.

Despite the medium-sized spread, the Lions could only convince 47 percent of Splash pickers against the spread to give them the benefit of the doubt. There’s no way that 100 percent of that 47 percent foresees a Detroit victory in Dallas, shrinking further the support in the team’s corner.

Survivor players were even less willing to put their necks out there for the Lions as just 0.21 percent of entries are hooked to Detroit. That is the fifth-smallest percentage in the league this week. Survivor players did not fall over themselves to go for the Cowboys either - 1.02 percent of entries took the plunge - but they still beat the Lions by a good bit.

The data for the Dolphins at Ravens game is similar to the Lions tango with the Cowboys, too, in a pairing with comparable importance on the other side of the NFL. The ‘Phins are 3.5-point underdogs and picked up just 42 percent of belief from Splash pickers against the spread. Miami is only barely ahead of Detroit in the Survivor popularity list with 0.24 percent of entries.

It doesn’t seem like Splash users have much hope for the Lions or Dolphins in their respective colossal clashes this weekend.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Bucs have been all the rage lately, turning their season around in the last month with a four-game winning run to propel themselves to a positive record and one-game lead at the top of the NFC South. Their next task is their most important one yet: the Saints, who sit right behind them in the division standings, at home this Sunday.

Splash pickers against the spread are in wide agreement that Tampa Bay will further cement its lead in the division this weekend, with 80 percent of Splash users going for the Buccaneers to cover the game’s line of 2.5 points. That is the second-most strongest that Splash pickers came out in favor of a favorite this week, just one percentage point behind the Browns in their date with the Jets.

The same spirit did not reach Splash Survivor players. Tampa Bay tallied just 1.22 percent of entries in Week 17, rigging the team comfortably in the bottom half for popularity this week. New Orleans obtained even more entries than the Bucs with 1.32 percent backing it on the road.

This dichotomy doesn’t make a lot of sense, but if Splash pickers against the spread are onto something, then it presents an excellent opportunity for Survivor value.

Too Close To Call

Sunday Night Football is set for the Twin Cities for a foray between two below .500 franchises still with playoff hopes. The Packers and Vikings both sit at 7-8 and just outside of wildcard positions. The loser in Minneapolis is all but cooked.

The Splash public is the most torn on who that loser will be in this matchup than in any of the 15 others scheduled for this week. The Vikings are 1.5-point favorites, and a slim majority of 52 percent of Splash pickers against the spread support them to cover this Sunday. The 4 percentage points that separate Green Bay and Minnesota is the second-smallest amount among the Week 17 pairings.

Splash Survivor players are more confident in the Vikings, though - 4.06 percent of all entries are assigned to Minnesota which is good for seventh in the popularity chart this week. That is a stark contrast to the 0.53 percent promise to the Packers. This tips the scales toward the Vikings in the overall minds of Splash users, but it isn't by a wide margin, and I have to pick something to fit this category. I work with what I’m given, people.

There isn’t as close of a call this week as usual but the closest thing to it is this NFC North showdown.

Upset Alert

The Colts are 2.5-point favorites in their home contest against the Raiders, but they are the only favorite that Splash pickers against the spread turned on this week. With 53 percent of pickers predicting the Raiders to keep it within two or better, the Colts have been placed on upset alert.

Indianapolis did outpace Las Vegas among Splash Survivor players; the Colts collected the sixth-most support of any team this week at 4.61 percent of entries. But the Raiders aren’t far behind with 3.67 percent of entries riding with them, which ranks ninth on the league-wide list. For every Splash Survivor player willing to risk it all on the Colts, there are nearly just as many lining up to stake their survival on the Raiders.

The Raiders have kept their playoff possibilities pumping with two-straight triumphs over divisional foes, most recently surprising the Chiefs at Arrowhead, 20-14, the first victory in the series following six defeats in a row dating back to 2020. Las Vegas needs to continue this positivity this weekend, but the Colts need it, too. Indianapolis is 1-2 in its last three and is barely clinging on to the final AFC wild card spot. The Colts are also knotted with the Jaguars and Texans for first place in the AFC South. At this point, a single win or loss could make or break their entire season.

No underdog had more support from the Splash masses this week than the Raiders. Will that mean the same thing it meant for the Ravens and 49ers last week? Let’s find out.

Biggest Snoozefest

In a not unusual fashion, the 49ers are the week’s biggest favorite. With 13.5 points separating San Francisco and Washington in the minds of bookmakers prior to kick off, no game is expected to be more lopsided in Week 17.

Still, 66 percent of Splash pickers against the spread stood up for San Francisco to cover. That’s two-thirds of pickers predicting a victory margin of at least two touchdowns. That does not sound like the sort of game a neutral would enjoy watching.

It gets even worse when you factor Survivor into the equation. No team in the league brought in less support than the Commanders this week with a measly 0.08 percent of entries throwing their weight behind them. Meanwhile, 3.56 percent of entries went for the Niners, making them the 10th-most popular pick in Week 17. This is all despite San Francisco’s status as the road side in this one.

There are plenty of other games that will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern this Sunday. Don’t feel obligated to watch this one if you don’t have to be. The Splash community issues its condolences to Commanders fans in advance.

Other Notables

• The Jaguars jumped to the top of the Splash Survivor popularity list this week with 20.58 percent of entries aimed at them. Their opponent, the Panthers, picked up just 0.28 percent.
• The rest of the Survivor top five includes the Eagles (16.20 percent), the Bills (6.98 percent), the Rams (6.16 percent), and the Texans (5.37 percent).