What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 16

Just three more weeks is all the 26 teams left alive for the playoffs have to work with. The Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles are already in, but seeding is stuck on their minds. There is plenty to play for between now and the end of Week 18.

If your Survivor contest remains ongoing and you’re in play to bring home the bacon, then any advantage to get you there should be welcomed. If that isn’t you, a glimpse into how the public believes this week’s action will unfold is still worthwhile. These contests are crucial - there will be some very sad fan bases over the next few days.

For the 16th time in 2023, I have dug through the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports in an attempt to unblur the images of the 16 showdowns slated for this week. Splash pickers have had some whiffs, but they have also had plenty of hits. Let’s see how they can do in the third-to-last go-around of the season.

To remember how well the Splash masses did with their opinions in Week 15, click here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are 2.5-point underdogs in their road date at Houston, but Splash users are convinced that Cleveland will crack the Texans this Sunday. Two-thirds of Splash pickers against the spread preferred the Browns, leaving just 33 percent who predicted that the Texans will cover at home. Cleveland is also fairly popular among Splash Survivor players with 3.29 percent of all entries aimed at it, which ranks as the eighth-most of any team this week. Conversely, just 1.01 percent of entries took the Texans, placing them in the bottom half of the popularity chart.

This is a massive matchup with huge playoff implications. The Browns are one game ahead of the Texans and the rest of the AFC’s hopefuls in the conference’s wild card race. A victory for them would further ensure a postseason bid. Houston could corral Cleveland to its level if it protects its turf. Both have divisional titles to think about. There’s a lot going on.

The Texans might have to go again without C.J. Stroud, who has been sidelined lately with a concussion, and that is likely playing a role in Splash users’ confidence in Cleveland. Stroud could play, though, but the Splash masses have already spoken: Joe Flacco and the Browns will get it done in Houston.

Nobody Believes In…

The New England Patriots.

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Patriots are underdogs once again, and the Splash masses have no hope for a cover from the once-mighty dynasty. A loss wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the Patriots, as they're battling Chicago, Arizona, and the Commanders for the rights to draft Caleb Williams (or possibly Drake Maye).

Only 26% of pickers are backing the Patriots +6.5 on the road in Denver, a notoriously difficult place to play. Bailey Zappe and Co. will have their work cut out for them as they face a Broncos team that has had its struggles against good teams, but has beaten up bad teams as of late. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Lions, it looks as if Sean Payton has his team ready for a bounce back win.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Colts are underdogs by the slimest possible margin this week. The books have declared the Falcons as 0.5-point favorites for when Indianapolis comes to Mercedes Benz Stadium this Sunday, making this one a de facto toss up.

Not in the minds of Splash pickers against the spread, though. Nearly four out of every five picks in that regard went for the Colts - 77 percent, to be exact, which ties Indianapolis with the Rams as the second-best supported team against the spread in Week 16. Given the size of the line, we can safely assume that 77 percent of pickers believe Indianapolis will be victorious in Atlanta.

Splash Survivor players are not as gung-ho on the Colts, though. In that realm, only 1.32 percent of entries attached themselves to Indy, the 16th-most of the 32 teams in action this week. In fact, the Colts got even less love in Survivor contests than the Falcons, who found 2.85 percent of entries in their corner, the 10-most among the NFL’s outfits.

That’s a notable dichotomy. If it means something to you, keep it in mind when making your crucial Survivor decisions. If not, at least enjoy the chaos of Splash users having no consistency about this contest. If you play both sides, you can’t lose, right?

Too Close To Call

The Cowboys and Dolphins are two of six teams that have hit the 10-win mark, and one of them is destined to be stuck there after this week.

The Phins will be in Arlington on Sunday in a huge cross-conference clash, looking to widen their gap atop the AFC East while keeping pace in a No. 1 seed. The Cowboys have the Eagles breathing down their necks in the NFC East, plus they want their conference’s bye to the divisional round. There’s a lot on the line.

And Splash users aren’t totally sure to which sides the scales will slip. At 58 percent, a small majority of pickers against the spread predicted the favored Dolphins to cover the game’s 1.5-point line. Splash Survivor players wanted absolutely nothing to do with either of these teams - they combined for 0.39 percent of all entries (0.21 percent for the Cowboys and 0.18 percent for the Dolphins), by far the least of any Week 16 matchup.

Some of that is probably because Dallas and Miami have been Survivor darlings for much of the year, so they’re not as available as others. But also, 26.58 percent of entries are on the Eagles this week, so how much is that really playing a role? This is not clear cut to the Splash cult.

Upset Alert

The Ravens and 49ers are the only 11-3 teams in the NFL. This could very well be a preview of the Super Bowl. If there is one Week 16 pairing that will garner the most attention nationally, it will be the one in Santa Clara on Monday night.

The Niners are 5.5-point favorites, which is the fifth-biggest line of the week. The bookmakers are confident in San Francisco, and 57 percent of Splash pickers don’t think it’s enough. That leaves 43 percent of pickers putting more faith in Baltimore.

We can comfortably conclude that more Splash pickers against the spread think the 49ers will win than not, but it’s a different story in the Survivor world. San Francisco did get more love than Baltimore - 0.47 percent of entries on the Niners compared to 0.09 percent, tied for the least in the league, hitched to the Ravens - but neither were popular. Even if more people back the home team, it doesn’t mean they feel so with conviction.

The data doesn’t show that San Francisco will be stunned, but it does note that Kyle Shanahan’s guys should proceed with caution. The Niners might be great, but the Ravens lead the AFC for a reason.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Bills are 11.5-point favorites in Week 16 despite their status as the road team. But when you’re lined up across from these Chargers, that’s what happens.

Not even 11.5 points could persuade Splash pickers against the spread from making Buffalo one of the most popular teams of the week; 75 percent picked the Bills to cover, the fourth-most of any team in Week 16. The statement wasn’t quite as strong among Splash Survivor players, with 3.42 percent staking their futures on Sean McDermott’s squad, but that’s still the seventh-most of the 32.

Buffalo added Kansas City and Dallas to their caps in their last two times out, impressive showings that have some assuming the Bills are back to being the team that won the last three AFC East titles. In the other corner, the Chargers are without their usual gunslinger and their only victory over the last six weeks was a miserable 6-0 versus the Patriots in which both sides combined for the same number of touchdowns as I scored in Week 13. They even matched my season total!

Unless you love the Bills or hate the Chargers, Splash users would not recommend you bother with this slaughter.

Other Notables

• The Packers pulled the most picks against the spread with 85 percent of support to cover the 4.5-point line in their date with the Panthers.
• The Commanders at Jets spread of 3.5 points in favor of New York was the most controversial of the 16 matchups this week, with just 51 percent predicting the Jets to cover.
• After the Eagles with 26.58 percent, the Broncos at 11.10 percent, the Packers at 10.66 percent, the Bears at 9.34 percent, and the Chiefs at 7.59 percent round out the top five most popular Survivor picks of Week 16.
• The Raiders gained just 0.09 percent of Splash Survivor entries, tying it for last in popularity with the Ravens. The Giants sat right above them with 0.11 percent.