What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 15

There are no more byes. There is no place to escape. Whether teams are ready or not, the NFL regular season is engaging in its final act. Some playoff invitations are in the mail, many are still up for grabs, and whatever force is ruling this universe will cruelly curse the 2023 Carolina Panthers to endure another four contests before this mistake may enter eternal rest.

With all 32 in play and less than a quarter of the schedule left unsaid, the outcomes in Week 15 will have glaring repercussions in playoff bid distribution and draft pick position. It’s a monumental moment for much of the league.

It’s also momentous for Splash Survivor. This is the final week that Splash will host a new Survivor competition with a guaranteed prize for the winner. The Week 15 Splash NFL Survivor Sprint is the last contest of its kind that you can join in 2023. If you want in, now is the time.

Nearing the end of the regular season means Survivor contestants are thinning, too. Every pick feels that much more crucial now that victory is within sight.

Perhaps perusing the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports will lend you information on how your competition might view the future and give you clues as to what you should do about it. Let’s see where the Splash world stands on the Week 15 on deck.

To take a peek at how Splash users believed Week 14 would be, click here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Los Angeles Rams.

Sean McVay and his Rams were 3-6 and staring a second-straight losing season directly in the face in early November. Now, Los Angeles is one game below .500 and the first team out in the NFC playoff picture based on a tiebreaker..

LA’s passing attack has been on fire lately with at least three scores through the air in each of its last three outings, and the Splash masses seem content assuming that will continue, at least for another week. Given the state of the Commanders’ secondary, which is allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL right now (266.0), I can see why.

That probably helps explain why 74 percent of Splash pickers against the spread went for the Rams to cover the 6.5 points they’re favored by, plus the team’s spot at the top of the list of most popular choices in Splash Survivor contests this week at 11.01 percent of entries staked on them. That’s quite the endorsement from the Splash community. It may also be an indictment on the Commanders. Either way, it’s the Rams that will be celebrating at SoFi on Sunday, according to Splash users.

Nobody Believes In…

The Seattle Seahawks.

The Pacific Northwest’s NFL representative has been the anti-Rams lately, a description I would not expect the Seahawks to enjoy. But after following up a 6-3 start with four skids straight that have made their playoff odds go from likely to iffy, it’s hard to argue otherwise.

Nov. 12 was the most recent example of Seattle outscoring an opponent: a slim 29-26 success versus the Commanders that required a walk-off field goal for the win. It’s the only victory the Seahawks have had since the calendar converted to November. That does not inspire confidence, especially when the Eagles are next up.

The last time we saw Seattle, it lost to San Francisco on the road, 28-16. Philadelphia didn’t do so great this past week either, falling in Dallas, 33-13, to sink from the NFC’s tentative No. 1 seed to the No. 5 spot in one swipe. That has not deterred the Splash faithful from throwing its weight behind the Eagles.

Only 23 percent of Splash pickers selected the Seahawks against the 3.5-point spread laid out for this matchup, meaning that only the Panthers had less support out of all 32 teams. Seattle couldn’t avoid last in the Survivor standings, though. No team beat the Seahawks to the bottom there, with just 0.07 percent of entries willing to stick with Seattle. Even the three-win Patriots found more Survivor supporters for their contest with the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Most of Seattle’s success this season has come at home, but Splashers don’t see that helping this Monday night - the Eagles should be flying higher than the Seahawks upon their Emerald City exit.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Dolphins were the biggest favorite last week but fell on their face anyway. That, along with key injuries, may have scared some Survivor players from going for them in Week 15, but it’s reached the point that the AFC’s current No. 2 seed is flying under the radar.

Twelve teams attracted more Survivor entries this week than Miami, which pulled just 2.48 percent. That’s a big drop from how many entries have normally taken the ‘Phins in any given week this season and one that its backers might come to love.

The Jets come to Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday as 9.5-point underdogs, and the majority of Splash pickers against the spread - 55 percent - expect the home team to cover. Of the 45 percent that picked the Jets, it’s unclear what amount of them think the travelers will actually spoil Miami’s day, but the 0.18 percent of Survivor entries aimed at New York might provide a hint.

In Week 14, Miami’s three-game win streak snapped to the Titans, 28-27, and the Jets absolutely dismantled the Texans, 30-6, to shake off a five-game slide. The Dolphins could be without crucial contributors, like Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane, but that’s why this is a value pick. If you don’t like the looks of it, there are 31 others to flip through.

Too Close To Call

The Cowboys are on a five-fixture run of results, putting the NFC on alert with a 33-13 statement against the Eagles in their second matchup of the season last week, elevating to 10-3 and the No. 2 seed in the conference upon ascension atop the NFC East.

For much of this season, it has been a rocky road for the Bills. Inconsistent performances have produced notable wins and notable losses. Last week issued one of those notable wins - Buffalo beat Kansas City at Arrowhead, 20-17, to keep pace in the AFC wild card race and stay within shouting distance of the Dolphins for the AFC East crown. Could the reports of Buffalo’s death have been greatly exaggerated?

The Bills will certainly have their chance to prove otherwise when the Cowboys visit Orchard Park in a primetime game on Sunday night. The home team is favored by 2.5 points, but 60 percent of Splash pickers against the spread like the underdogs to keep it within two or win. That makes Dallas one of two underdogs preferred by Splash users in the league’s 16 Week 15 matchups.

Splash Survivor players steered clear of this clash. The Bills outpaced the Cowboys with 0.56 percent of all entries compared to 0.09 percent, but their combined total of 0.67 percent is the lowest of the week. There isn’t a ton to separate between these two in the pick data, so it goes up as Week 15’s toss up, as indirectly chosen by Splash users.

Upset Alert

The Giants are 5.5-point underdogs in their road trip to New Orleans, and Splash pickers are inclined to believe that Saints fans who show up won’t be leaving happy.

New York convinced 58 percent of pickers against the spread that it will overcome the odds, a major tip off to what would be a medium-sized upset. There are three instances of more than 50 percent of Splash users opting for the underdog this week, but the Giants have the widest spread to prove wrong and would therefore be the biggest shock, at least empirically in the eyes of the books.

The same determination was not shared by Splash Survivor players. The Saints received the third-most entries across all contests this week with 10.16 percent. Meanwhile, the Giants are one of the top 10 least popular teams in Week 15, gathering just 0.66 percent of entries for themselves.

The mess that is the bottom-middle of the NFC means that 6-7 Saints are very alive for their division title or a wild card berth, and it also means that the 5-8 Giants are one game back of the conference’s final playoff position. Like it or not, this one matters, and it could be the week’s largest upset.

Biggest Snoozefest

The game that Splash users deemed the biggest snoozefest of Week 14 turned out to be the biggest shocker instead. In Week 15, the largest line again sits at 13.5 points, and the Splash masses remain bullish on the major favorite of the week.

Perhaps the Niners will do what the Dolphins couldn’t. The Cardinals are the guinea pig in this experiment, and 65 percent of Splash pickers against the spread are up on San Francisco to cover, even as the road team.

The 49ers also found some love from Survivor players. They hauled in 9.31 percent of entries, good for fourth in the weekly popularity standings. The Cardinals collected the fifth-least support of the 32 sides in play at 0.19 percent.

It’s possible that Arizona could surprise its divisional foes. This is the NFL, after all. But the Splash public is putting its eggs in the opposite basket: San Francisco by 14 or more.