Each week I’ll be breaking down my strategy for a single entry into the $21M Survivor contest, using the PredictQ Survivor Optimizer to help along the way.
Same three inputs as last week: how likely a team is to win, what percent of entries land on them, and how valuable the rest of their schedule is.
Before Week 2, a look back at Week 1.
5,182 of 20,839 entries eliminated in Week 1, 24.9% of the field, and the Chargers accounted for 4,488 of those exits. Cowboys and Titans were next highest.
Looking ahead to this week:
SF: San Francisco is a 13.5-point favorite over Miami and normally would be an easy chalk fade but when you consider their lack of future appealing matchups plus the Splash Sports crowd avoiding the highest favorite last week, this may be a time to lock in the easy win while the rest of the crowd gets cute.
TB: Tampa Bay is an 8.5-point favorite against Cleveland and I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up being the highest owned pick. Everyone wants to attack Deshaun Watson and has decided the Browns are cooked, so while our model has them being picked by around 20% of teams, I think we’re going to manually bump that.
BAL: Baltimore is also an 8.5-point favorite but they still get Tennessee at home and two cracks at Cleveland. Think it’s the right move to save them.
Other favorites: The Rams sit at 84 Remaining Value, the Chiefs at 80, the Eagles at 74. All three have better matchups coming and are likely passes for me.