Each week I’ll be breaking down my strategy for a single entry into the $21M Survivor contest, using the PredictQ Survivor Optimizer to help along the way.
I’ll focus primarily on the following variables.
- Team likelihood of winning. This can be accurately calculated by using the game spread and historical win rates at each spread.
- Expected pick percentage. Just as important as projecting how likely each team is to win is accurately projecting what percent of the remaining entries will pick each team.
- How valuable each team’s rest-of-season schedule is.
Together, these three inputs help me decide on the best picks for each week, not to simply advance, but to increase our chances of winning the whole contest. Advancing is great, but if everyone advances on the same picks, you don’t gain any ground on the field and you simply risk losing for minimal gain. Rather, it often makes sense to take a counterintuitive approach and pick the teams that are lesser favorites but also much less picked. The PredictQ Survivor Optimizer tool I referenced provides all three of those inputs to help map out the optimal path forward for the remaining season.