What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 14

This is the final week in which any of the NFL’s 32 teams will enjoy a bye. The sprint to the conclusion of the regular season is on, and the teams with playoff prayers are either jockeying for preferential positioning or doing what they can to claw into the final 14.

The Week 14 Splash NFL Survivor Sprint is on, and with such little time remaining in the regular season, players are now prompted to pick four winners correctly to survive each week. That’s quite a tough task; one that could be made easier with the benefit of looking from above. For the 14th week in a row, I’m digging deep into the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports in an effort to help the Splash masses better understand the week of action ahead of them.

If you have faith in your fellow Splashers, this information is quite useful for you. If you don’t, at least now you’ll know which way the wind blows for your competition. Either way, let’s start the show.

If you’d like to look back at how the Splash community thought Week 13 would go, click here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Cincinnati Bengals.

It’s been a weird season for Cincinnati. First, they sucked, then they were good, then Joe Burrow hurt himself for good, and they sucked again, and now everybody believes in them this week after their overtime upset of the Jaguars last Monday. What a roller coaster ride.

The Colts come to Paycor Stadium this Sunday and are 1.5-point favorites on the road, but Splash users strongly disagree with the books. Splash pickers against the spread went for the Bengals to overcome the spread at a 62 percent rate, making Cincinnati one of three underdogs this week to pick up more than 50 percent of support in their showdown. Additionally, the Bengals are the sixth-most popular pick among Week 14 Splash Survivor players with 7.84 percent of entries backing them. Meanwhile, the Colts have just 0.54 percent of Survivor entries aimed at them.

What looks like a fairly even-matched outing between two teams hovering around .500 is not in the minds of the Splash masses. According to them, the Bengals are a sure bet this weekend.

Nobody Believes In…

The Jacksonville Jaguars.

Fresh off of a disappointing defeat to the Bengals, the Jags are 2.5-point underdogs on the road at Cleveland in Week 14. Splash pickers against the spread are happy to go for the favorite, with 64 percent of them electing for the Browns to cover at home. That leaves just 36 percent of pickers who placed any faith in Jacksonville to overcome the odds. The Jaguars did receive better backing among Splash Survivor players than the Browns with 1.08 percent of entries in their corner compared to the 0.69 percent of entries that have clung to Cleveland, but that’s still a small sample in the grand scheme.

It is currently unclear if Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard will be under center for Jacksonville on Sunday after Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain late in Monday night’s game, a question that is likely affecting how Splash users approach this matchup. This may shock you, but I do not have insider knowledge of the inner workings of Jacksonville’s medical room, so my guess is as good as yours. But to the people of Splash, it is already decided: fade the Jaguars in Week 14.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Lions will be in Chicago this Sunday to take on the Bears for the second time this season. Detroit came out on top in the first meeting between these NFC North nemeses on Nov. 19, 31-26, one of nine victories the Lions have amassed so far in 2023. Chicago’s season has been the inverse of Detroit’s - while the Lions enjoy a three-game lead at the top of the division, the Bears are holding down last place at 4-8.

Despite this, the books have set a line of 3.5 points in Detroit’s favor, which seems to have amused Splash pickers - 81 percent of Splash users have predicted that the Lions will cover the spread, the most of any of the 30 teams in action in Week 14. However, just 3.04 percent of Splash Survivor entries have hooked themselves to Detroit this week. Ten other teams attracted more attention across Splash Survivor contests.

Why is this? Perhaps it’s because many players have already used the Lions in the past. Maybe Survivor players know something that pickers against the spread don’t. But the data is what the data is, and if you can include Detroit in your Survivor ballot this week, you could be in for some tremendous value.

Too Close To Call

The Falcons and Bucs battled at Raymond James Stadium on Oct. 22, and only three points separated them, 16-13. The rematch is set for this Sunday in Atlanta, and Splash users are torn on how it will turn out.

The home team is favored by 2.5 points, and 55 percent of Splash pickers against the spread believe the favorite will cover. That leaves 45 percent on the side of the Buccaneers, a narrow split for a narrow spread. The Falcons attracted 1.12 percent of Splash Survivor entries this week, while the Bucs pulled 0.72 percent of entries across all Survivor contests.

There isn’t much to separate these sides, on paper, in the standings, and in the minds of Splash users. This NFC South showdown is too close to call.

Upset Alert

The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites in their home challenge versus the Eagles in Week 14, but the Splash universe isn’t buying it. Splash pickers against the spread went for Philadelphia at a 60 percent rate, leaving just 40 percent who expect Dallas to cover. This is one of three of the 15 games this week in which Splash users have preferred the underdog.

Neither team garnered much attention from Splash Survivor players, but almost nobody has hinged their future on the Cowboys. The Eagles gathered 0.54 percent of entries, a miniscule amount, by their standards. While those numbers are dismal, the Cowboys corralled the fewest entries among the 30 teams scheduled to take the field this week with 0.06 percent.

The Eagles won the pairs’ first meeting earlier this season, 28-23, and I will admit, it feels like a stretch to consider this an upset. But, the line is what it is, and Splash users made it clear the Eagles are the biggest underdog they believe in this week.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Dolphins are the week’s biggest favorite with 13.5 points separating them from the Titans prior to kickoff. Given the trajectory of each team’s season, Splash users can see where the books are coming from.

A majority of Splash pickers against the spread - 69 percent, to be exact - predict that Miami will win by two touchdowns or more. That doesn’t bode well for Tennessee; most of the 31 percent of pickers who think the Titans will keep it closer probably don’t have hope in them winning. The Dolphins also have 5.24 percent of Survivor entries in their corner, while the Titans are wallowing with 0.11 percent of entries.

The ‘Phins have pummeled their fair share of opponents thus far in 2023. According to Splash users, the Titans will join that list in Week 14, and you are better off finding another way to spend three hours on Monday night.

Weird Outliers

Sometimes, the data doesn’t line up.

The Texans are 6.5-point favorites at the Jets this week, and 72 percent of pickers against the spread surmised that Houston will cover. But 8.43 percent of Splash survivor entries align themselves with the Jets, the fifth-most of any team playing this week. The Texans aren’t far behind them with 7.02 percent of entries on them, the seventh-most among active outfits. I’m not sure what that means exactly, but it’s a weird outlier.

The matchup between the Broncos and Chargers has some oddities of its own, too. Los Angeles is favored by 2.5 points, but 60 percent of Splash pickers against the spread crossed that line and backed the Broncos. Splash Survivor players didn’t get the memo, though, because 6.23 percent of entries chose the Chargers. Conversely, the Broncos are among the least-picked teams in Survivor this week with 0.26 percent of entries. How does this happen? I don’t know. Make of it what you will.