What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 13

We are well on our way to the conclusion of the NFL regular season. The playoff picture is becoming clearer by the week, and teams have placed themselves into tiers of likelihood to qualify. With the intensity ramping up on the field, those same feelings can be felt in living rooms across the country.

Survivor entries are not as spread out as they have been in recent weeks, which is likely aligned with the spreads of Week 13 games being wider across the board than as of late. The pairings this week look less even on paper, and the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports reflects that.

To help you prepare for the NFL week ahead, I’ve scoured the data to glean insight from the inner minds of Splash users. Maybe this will be helpful for you as you embark on making your own picks in Splash contests this week. If not, take it up with the thousands of Splash users who contributed to this data evaluation.

To check out what the wide world of Splash thought would occur in the NFL’s Week 12, click here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Los Angeles Chargers.

The Bolts are 5.5-point favorites heading into their Week 13 road matchup at New England. This is despite their current three-game skid, but that is deterring neither the books nor Splash users from putting their confidence in the Chargers this week.

Splash pickers against the spread overwhelmingly believe that the Chargers will cover, with 75 percent saying so and just one-fourth of pickers predicting the Patriots to keep the game within five or fewer. Los Angeles is also the fourth-most popular pick among Splash Survivor players with 7.53 percent of entries aimed at it. Conversely, the Patriots have 0.25 percent of entries attached to them.

This probably says more about New England than it does the Chargers, but nevertheless, Los Angeles has a lot of belief among the Splash masses to improve to 5-7.

Nobody Believes In…

The New Orleans Saints.

The Saints lost an important game last week to the Falcons, 24-15, to build a two-game negative run and confirm four defeats in their last six times out. Now, the Lions are coming to New Orleans, and Splash users are convinced the home team’s woes will continue.

New Orleans received the smallest percentage of belief from Splash pickers against the spread - 20 percent - of any of the 26 teams in action in Week 13. That means that 80 percent of pickers think that the Lions will cover the 3.5-point spread that the books have set for the showdown. Splash Survivor players don’t seem as thrilled about Detroit's prospects with just 0.97 percent of entries backing it, but only 0.22 percent of entries went for New Orleans, the fifth-fewest of the 26-team field.

The NFC South is open for the taking, but the Saints can’t keep losing if they want to come out on top of the division. If Splash users are correct, then New Orleans is looking at a 5-7 record and a bigger hole to climb out of.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Colts and Titans will enjoy the second of their two annual meetings this Sunday in Nashville. Indianapolis came out on top in the first game on Oct. 8, 23-16, and has been on a tear recently, picking up three wins in its last three outings. Meanwhile, the only team the Titans beat in November was one-win Carolina.

Indianapolis is one of the best teams in the NFL at bringing the quarterback down behind the line of scrimmage. The Colts are tied for sixth in the league for total sacks (36) despite ranking last in blitz percentage (15.8), the sign of an effective pass rush - Tampa Bay learned that the hard way last week to the tune of six sacks against. The Titans allowed 10 sacks in their three November defeats. This equation could end poorly for Tennessee.

The Colts are favored by 1.5 points, and Splash pickers against the spread are mostly sure they will cover that - 59 percent backed them to do so. But only 0.70 percent of Splash Survivor entries are fixated on Indianapolis this week. If the road team’s seeming advantage in the trenches on defense proves useful and Splash pickers against the spread know what they’re talking about, then it will be difficult to find a better value in Week 13 than Indianapolis.

Too Close To Call

Two of the biggest contenders in the NFC will share a field this Sunday in Philadelphia. The 49ers and Eagles are a combined 18-4 through 12 weeks of the regular season, and just 2.5 points separate them prior to kickoff, according to the books. San Francisco has been declared the favorite despite the necessity of a cross-country flight, and the Splash community is torn on how the engagement will proceed.

A majority of pickers against the spread went for the Eagles: 58 percent think Philly will win or keep it within two points. That leaves 42 percent predicting the Niners to cover and therefore claim victory. How much of that 58 percent believes the Eagles will grow to 11-1 is unclear, but it’s likely that a good chunk does. It feels appropriate to say there is a roughly 50-50 split among Splash pickers for who will take this contest.

Splash Survivor players did not want anything to do with this game. The Eagles earned 0.28 percent of entries across all Splash Survivor contests, the seventh-smallest percentage among the 26 teams in action in Week 13. The 49ers have even less with 0.08 percent of entries, the second from the bottom in the league. In total that is just 0.36 percent of Survivor entries pinned to the result of this one. Not only is that the least of the week, but it’s also among the smallest percentage of any game this season.

You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but you should try to watch this game. It’s shaping up to be a good one.

Upset Alert

After a horrific 1-5 start that included conceding 70 points in one game, the Broncos have put together five victories in a row and have completely flipped the script on their season. However they still find themselves in an underdog position this week for their trip to Houston.

The Texans are 3.5-point favorites this weekend but Splash users aren’t buying it. Three out of every five Splash pickers against the spread went for Denver to overcome those 3.5 points, leaving only 40 percent who have faith in Houston to cover. The Broncos join the Eagles as one of the only two Week 13 underdogs that attracted more than 50 percent of Splash pickers against the spread to their cause.

A decent amount of Splash Survivor players have put their eggs in one of these teams’ baskets. The Texans picked up slightly more with 3.04 percent of entries on their side, but the Broncos are not far behind at 2.64 percent. That 0.40 percent difference doesn’t mean a whole lot, and it illustrates a matchup where the favorite doesn’t have much backing among the Splash public.

Houston has vastly outpaced its preseason expectations and could qualify for the playoffs. But according to Splash users, the Texans are on upset alert at home this Sunday.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Dolphins have distributed their fair share of destructions in 2023, and if Splash users are right, another one is incoming in Week 13.

Miami is favored by 9.5 points this weekend, the largest line of Week 13, and 71 percent of Splash pickers against the spread are sure that Mike McDaniel’s team will cover. That’s quite a resounding remark considering the size of the spread, but that’s the current state of the Dolphins and Commanders, though in different directions.

The Commanders have become accustomed to losing lately with three-straight failures to their name. Their defense has been so impotent that defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio became unemployed this week. Washington lost its last two games by a combined 47 points to the Giants and Cowboys, and it looks like another lopsided defeat is on the horizon this Sunday. Almost 5 percent of Splash Survivor entries have hinged their survival on the Commanders collapsing, while just 0.17 percent have thrown themselves the other direction, another sign of what Splash users believe is to come in Landover.

If you are not legally obligated to do so or are otherwise a Dolphins fan or self-hating Commanders comrade, then don’t tune in for this one. Splash users have declared this matchup as the biggest snoozefest of the week.