What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 12
With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, the race for the playoffs is heating up. Survivor contests are also on their last legs, if they haven’t finished already. We scoured the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports to peer through the window to know what will happen in the NFL’s Week 12, at least according to the Splash masses.
For the second week in a row, Survivor entries are well spread out. Seventeen of the 32 teams in action in Week 12 received 1 percent or more of the entries, and six of them earned better than 5 percent. This is to be expected this late in the season, but it still illustrates disagreement among Survivor players.
Taking into account the Survivor stats and Splash users’ picks against the spread, I’m going to try to draw some conclusions on what to expect on Thanksgiving through Monday. If anything is wrong, it’s your fault. Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m just doing my job.
If you want to see how Splash pickers foresaw Week 11 before its first kickoff, click here.
Everybody Believes In…
The Tennessee Titans.
The Titans were demolished last week at the hands of fellow AFC South competitor Jacksonville, 34-14. Tennessee is 3-7, comfortably last in its division, and losers of three in a row. But Splash pickers love them in Week 12.
This Sunday, one of the few teams in the NFL having a worse go of it than the Titans is coming to Nashville. The Panthers are the league’s last remaining one-win outfit and continue to search for answers on a weekly basis. Splash users have significantly more faith in the home team in this one
The Titans are the second-most popular pick in Splash Survivor contests this week with 16.21 percent of entries supporting them. By comparison, the Panthers received just 0.14 percent of entries, tied for the fourth-fewest of anyone. Tennessee is favored by 3.5 points and Splash pickers against the spread are laughing - 76 percent of them believe the Titans will take out the Panthers by a wider margin.
It isn’t often that the Titans get highlighted in a positive light in this series, but apparently all it took was the Panthers to make them a darling.
Nobody Believes In…
It’s been a rocky road for the Bills thus far in 2023. They’ve been up, they’ve been down, and if Splash users know what they’re talking about, then in Week 12, they will be down again.
Buffalo was up in Week 11, obliterating the Jets, 32-6, to end a two-game skid and bring some life back into the team. Josh Allen and the Bills offense awoke from their slumber to amass almost 400 total yards against an above-average defense that had been holding opponents to much smaller outputs.
But as quickly as that came, the Splash world thinks it will go. Buffalo heads to Philadelphia this Sunday, and 69 percent of Splash pickers against the spread predicted that the Eagles will cover the 3.5-point spread. A decent amount of Survivor players are staking their futures on the Eagles, too, with 2.09 percent choosing them as a representative in Week 12. Conversely, you can’t find a less popular Survivor pick than the Bills this week, period. At 0.05 percent, Splash Survivor players wanted no one less.
According to the Splash universe, the Bills are staring down the barrel at a 6-6 record with only a third of the regular season left to recover.
Possible Survivor Value Pick
The Bengals and Steelers will meet this Sunday in their first contest of the campaign, but it will be without Joe Burrow, who suffered a season-ending injury in his team’s Week 11 loss to the Ravens. Spirits aren’t high in Cincinnati, but things didn’t go well for Pittsburgh last week either - the Steelers crawled to a 13-10 defeat at the hands of the Browns.
The Steelers are 0.5-point favorites as the road team, indicating that the books aren’t quite what will happen in Cincinnati this weekend. Splash pickers against the spread appear to have much more confidence, though, with 68 percent of them assuming Pittsburgh will improve to 7-4.
That same trend has not extended to Splash Survivor contests. The Bengals have 3.51 percent of entries in their corner, which puts them in the top 10 of the most popular Survivor selections of Week 12. Meanwhile, just 1.05 percent of entries have attached themselves to the Steelers.
If Splash pickers against the spread are onto something, then there is a lot of value in Pittsburgh this week. Add in Burrow’s absence, and this looks like a sneaky way to survive through to Week 13.
Too Close To Call
The Broncos and Browns will come together in Denver this Sunday, and Splash users are divided on what will happen. The Broncos are 2.5-point favorites, but 52 percent of Splash pickers against the spread went for Cleveland to either win or lose by two points or fewer. How many of those picks are meant to predict that the Browns will come home smiling is unclear, but with a spread that tight and picks that close, it seems pretty even to me.
Splash Survivor players are also conflicted. The Browns picked up 1.85 percent of entries and the Broncos amassed 1.25 percent of entries, a remarkably similar amount that is unusual for most matchups. Usually, when the masses are unsure on an outcome, players stay away from both teams in Survivor. For whatever reason, Survivor players still went for Denver and Cleveland, just at about the same rate.
The Broncos have totally changed the narrative around them with four successes in a row, most recently a one-point win over the also-surging Vikings, 21-20. The Browns are on a three-game unbeaten run of their own, last ousting the Steelers, 13-10. One of those two things will have to give. There is no consensus on who will bend the knee.
Splash pickers and Survivor players aren’t indicating any major upsets in Week 12. The closest thing to an upset looks to be the Giants over the Patriots.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite on the road despite having one fewer win than the 3-8 Giants. In all honesty, I see little to differentiate these teams. Both have horrible quarterback situations. Both have been among the worst teams in the league this season. But the books have spoken, and Splash users have reacted.
Only 32 percent of Splash pickers against the spread think the Patriots will cover, making New England by far the least supported favorite of the week. In fact, they’re the only team favored by one point or more that the majority of Splash users think will not cover. The Patriots did get 2.43 percent of Survivor entries in Week 12, a weird contrast to how Splash pickers treated them elsewhere. But at this point in the campaign, Survivor stats must be swallowed with a grain of salt. Splash pickers against the spread believe New England better be careful at MetLife Stadium.
This segment might as well relocate to Dallas. The Cowboys are yet again featured in this week’s biggest snoozefest as the aggressor, this time for their Thanksgiving showdown with the Commanders in Arlington.
The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites this week, the largest line of Week 12. Still, almost three-fourths of Splash pickers against the spread back Dallas to cover - 73 percent to be exact. Of the 27 percent who went for Washington against the spread, how many of them do you think believe in the Commanders to keep it close? Probably not all.
Yet again, the Cowboys are one of the preferred picks in Survivor. With 8.60 percent of the Splash Survivor field aimed at Dallas, the ‘Boys are the fifth-most popular pick of Week 12. It’s become a weekly occurrence for the Cowboys to be high on the Survivor list, and it’s continuing for at least another week.
Thanksgiving offers football fans with a smorgasbord of action to combine with their turkey. But this year, Splash pickers think your time would be better spent with your family from 4:30 to 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
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