Survivor Clean Slate Week 7: Sorry for What the Jets Did to You

The Jets held the Eagles scoreless in the second half to allow their comeback from 11-points down to dish Philadelphia its first loss of the season, its first loss in the teams’ all-time series, and to rip up more than 8 percent of all Splash NFL Survivor entries in Week 6.

If you are one of New York’s victims, we feel your pain. We too were hoodwinked, expecting the on-paper mismatch to play out in favor of Philly. Turns out, they play the games for a reason. Who knew?

It’s natural to need a reset sometimes. This is true in life, and it’s especially true in NFL Survivor. If you are someone who requires a clean slate right now, then the Week 7 Splash NFL Survivor Revival contest is for you. With a grand prize of $15,000, there is some serious cash on the line. It doesn’t matter if this is your first revival, second time through, or you’re just starting out in the game: if you can outlast the rest, the money is yours.

I want to give soon-to-be resurrected and still-living players some help with their picks for Week 7. Depending on your strategy and what teams are available for you to choose from, you might approach it differently. I will reflect that in my advice.

Before we go any deeper into next week, let’s recall Week 6 and how some of you came to need a shot at redemption.

In Memoriam

The Jets upset of the Eagles was by far the top culprit for NFL Survivor elimination. The 20-14 scoreline confirmed the end for 8.45 percent of entries across Splash Survivor contests, the fifth-most popular pick of the week. Interceptions, stifling run defense from the Jets, and a 37-yard field goal miss brought Philadelphia down, much to the surprise of the wider audience. It also ruined Splash’s undefeated run in our Lock of the Week picks. We much preferred our 5-0 record while we had it, but we’ll have to learn to live with 5-1. It’s not so bad, all in all.

Splash users were very enthusiastic in their belief that the 49ers would cover the spread in their date with the Browns. The 88 percent of pickers who made their feelings known in that regard didn’t come out as strongly for the Niners in Survivor, but 2.47 percent of entries did go for San Francisco, and every single one of them is no longer in contention. Cleveland pulled off the stunner, 19-17, as the 49ers exited invincibility and assumed their first defeat of the campaign.

The Saints were the next-biggest disappointment among Splash Survivor players. New Orleans received 1.27 percent of entries in Week 7 only to fall to the Texans in Houston, 20-13. Those who picked the Falcons (0.40 percent), Bears (0.17 percent), Broncos (0.16 percent), and Patriots (0.14 percent) also find themselves on the outside looking in.

If You Want Guaranteed Safety…

Go for the Bills over the Patriots.

Buffalo is our Lock of the Week this time around, which means anyone who picks the Bills in our Week 7 Splash NFL Survivor Revival contest will get their money back (up to one entry) if the Patriots end up surprising the football world. We have a better than 80 percent success rate on these picks so far this season, and we feel good staking that on the Bills this week.

New England has firmly established itself as one of the NFL’s worst this season, an insane statement to anyone who has watched football of the last two decades but one that is hard to argue given modern realities. Only the Giants have managed a worse point differential than New England’s -80. The Patriots have had the lowest percentage of their drives end in offensive scores of any team in the league (18.3 percent). They are one of the most blitz-happy teams in pro football, blitzing on 43.4 percent of opposing drop backs (second-most in the NFL), but they’re in the bottom half of the league in QB pressures (22.2 percent), a contradiction that means points and yards are piling up for the bad guys.

These are not the elements of a winning formula, especially when the task at hand is one of the mainstays at the top of the NFL for the last handful of seasons. The Bills excel where the Patriots don’t, are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and Buffalo has put the clamps on New England since the start of 2020, owning the series, 6-1, for going on four years.

If you fit the bill for our Lock of the Week promo, then it doesn’t matter how the Bills match up with the Pats. As long as you go for Buffalo, you’re golden. If you are not eligible for guaranteed safety and still have them available to pick, you might want to give the Bills a good look; on paper, this is one of the most lopsided contests this week.

If You Want the Week’s Next-Biggest Favorite…

Go for the Seahawks over the Cardinals.

Early lines give the Bills an 8.5-point cushion over the Patriots, the largest line of the week. We already discussed what could go down in Foxboro, so we’ll jump to the next-largest favorite: the Seahawks.

The Cardinals will come to Seattle this Sunday the first of two tangos with the in-division foe. They bring with them a 1-5 record, a diabolical defense, and no James Conner. What little hope there was for Arizona when it upset the Cowboys in Week 3 has been thoroughly stomped out. The Rams made easy work of the Cardinals last week, 26-9, and the general consensus will be that something similar will come again this weekend.

The Seahawks fell to 3-2 after their offense failed to get anything on their two possessions late in the game down by four, securing the 17-13 final scoreline in the Bengals’ favor. But with the Cardinals coming up, a bounce back is expected from Pete Carroll’s men. That’s partly thanks to Arizona’s ineptitude, but the Seahawks have their positive qualities, like a stout run defense that is only allowing opponents 79.2 yards on the ground per game.

Perhaps the 49ers or Chiefs will find bigger lines before their kick offs, but as of right now, the 7.5 points separating the Seahawks and Cardinals makes Seattle the second-biggest favorite of the week.

If You Want a Value Pick…

Consider the Packers over the Broncos.

Outside of the usual suspects and the Seahawks’ situation, the matchups appear pretty tight in Week 7. It wasn’t easy for me to single one out as a value pick, but I think it’s possible those who go for the Packers can escape through to Week 8 while avoiding what will attract most of the population.

What good is there to say about the Broncos right now? The drama is everywhere with them. It’s been a gong show, from quarterback to receivers to defense to coaching. Outside of a three-point win over a Bears team that appears to be one of the few on Denver’s level, nothing positive has happened in Denver in 2023.

Green Bay has not lit the world on fire either this season. It’s coming off of back-to-back defeats to the Lions and Raiders, and with Jordan Love still in his infancy as a starting quarterback in this league, there have been growing pains. That’s not to mention a run defense that ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in yards allowed per outing (143.4).

But you know one of the few teams that’s giving up more on the ground than Green Bay? Denver. Want to know another team with big question marks on offense? Denver. The Packers experienced their bye week in Week 6, which should theoretically have them even more prepared for their Denver trip than otherwise.

The Broncos defense did look improved last Thursday against the Chiefs, and it’s possible that those improvements continue on against the Packers. Green Bay doesn’t have the offense that Kansas City does, so if that is the case, then it could be a struggle for the visitors to put up several scores.

Early spreads only give the Packers a 1.5-point edge for a reason: neither of these teams are particularly any good. But if you want a potential value pick this week that most Splash Survivor players probably won’t be on to sneak you through, then this looks like the place to turn to me.