What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 6

Splash users have some strong opinions on how Week 6 will shake out. Their picks, spanning across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports, indicate that they think a handful of the lines are way off, that we’re in for a few total beatdowns this weekend, and that the Browns are doomed.

As per our weekly tradition, let’s dive into what the Splash public has to say, and maybe we can learn a thing or two about a thing or two. You can find last week’s Splash pick data rundown here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Cincinnati Bengals.

Splash pickers seemingly saw enough in the Bengals’ victory over the Cardinals in Week 5 to hop back on the bandwagon. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favorite in their home contest with Seattle on Sunday, which is tied with several other games for the slimmest line of the week. Splash pickers against the spread overwhelmingly went for the Bengals, with 79 percent assuming they will slap the Seahawks by at least three points.

This is night and day from how Splash pickers treated Cincinnati in Week 5. Way back then, only 45 percent of pickers thought the Bengals would cover their 3.5-point spread against the Cardinals; Cincy stomped them by 14. That performance weighs heavily on the Splash users’ minds.

Important to note: the Bengals are not especially popular in Survival. There, they garnered 0.95 percent of entries, which isn’t even in the top 10 among the 30 teams in action this week. While Splash users are confident in the Bengals in a nebulous sense, they’re less willing to put their chips on the table when it’s a matter of survival.

Nobody Believes In…

The Cleveland Browns.

The 49ers come to Cleveland this weekend as the Browns return to the field following their bye week. San Francisco enters with one of the league’s two undefeated records while Cleveland teeters at 2-2. The line favors the visitors by 4.5 points, and Splash users think that’s laughable.

In the largest majority pick in any direction against the spread so far this season, 88 percent of Splash pickers went for San Francisco to cover. To reiterate: in six weeks of football, no line has had more Splash users go full steam ahead in near unison.

Splash Survival players aren’t as sure about the Niners with only 2.47 percent, the sixth-most of any team in Week 6, backing them. But even if Survival entries didn’t go all out in support of San Francisco, they did ignore the Browns almost unanimously; 0.04 percent of contest entrants are staked on Cleveland this week, the fourth-least of any team.

According to the Splash Universe, there’s no question of if the 49ers will maintain their perfect record. Not even the margin of victory is at odds – that will exceed 4.5 points at a minimum, apparently. I don’t know if great respect for the Niners or an enormous disrespect toward the Browns is responsible for this. The truth often lies somewhere in the middle.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Cardinals come to LA to take on the Rams this weekend, and it looks like a bad matchup on paper. Arizona will be without James Conner, and its defense just got done giving up more than 300 passing yards to the Bengals, a team that previously struggled to do much of anything through the air. A questionable secondary is not a nice thing to bring to Sofi Stadium – the passing attack is the Rams’ specialty. Even without Cooper Kupp, the Rams were one of the premier passing teams in the NFL. Now he’s back, and it should only get more lethal from here.

A good number of Splash Survival players have clocked this, and the Rams have claimed the fourth-most entries this week at 12.33 percent. Still, that’s well before the roughly 50 percent of entries that have opted for the Bills or Dolphins. Plus, as well as the Rams throw the ball, they’re 2-3 for a reason; how many more times down the line are you likely to want to pick them? Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and San Francisco will probably all win more games than the Rams this season. If you can get away with saving one of them for future use, there’s value there.

Of course, there is risk. The Rams have plenty of weaknesses, and the Cardinals have already pulled one upset that tore up Survival hopes before. But if it works, you’ll be better set for the future.

Too Close to Call

The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites in Week 6 despite heading west to challenge the Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Splash pickers were torn on handling that line, with 55 percent taking Dallas to cover and 45 percent predicting Los Angeles to keep it within two or even win.

Meanwhile, Survival players wanted absolutely nothing to do with this game. Just 0.36 percent of all entries include one of these outfits, the least of any matchup this week. The Cowboys attracted slightly more backing with 0.28 percent of all entries compared to the Chargers’ 0.08 percent, but when the margins are that thin, do they matter?

After what appeared to be a promising start to the season, Dallas has failed on each of its western trips this season and was thoroughly outclassed last week in Santa Clara. All four of LA’s games have finished within a score, and it’s not crazy to think it could be five of five close contests for the Chargers. There’s no clear consensus on how Splash pickers think the dust will settle between these two on Monday night.

Upset Alert

The Jaguars are back in the United States after going 1-1 in London, which included a huge win over the Bills in their second contest across the pond. But the traveling isn’t done. Jacksonville is making its annual trip to Indianapolis this Sunday for a game that it enters as a 4.5-point favorite.

Splash pickers think it’s too wide of a cushion, with 52 percent clicking for the Colts against the spread. It is the week's largest line that led most Splash users to go for the underdog.

Splash Survival players showed a little bit of respect to the Jags, but nothing substantial. Jacksonville is the seventh-most common pick in Survival contests this week at 2.39 percent, a far cry from even the Eagles in fifth at 8.45 percent. The Colts are near the bottom of the list at 0.05 percent.

Also worth noting: the Raiders are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Patriots, but 70 percent of Splash users went for the underdog across that spread. Similarly, 61 percent of Splash pickers dismissed the 3.5-point spread in favor of the Ravens in their road game at the Titans. Splash Survival players mostly stayed away from those games, too.

There were a good number of underdogs that won the majority of the picks against the spread across Splash platforms this week. Maybe it’s a sign.

Biggest Snoozefest

There are a couple of good options here with the Giants at Bills and Panthers at Dolphins games both seeming widely unequal prior to kickoff. But even more Splash pickers think Miami will cover its massive spread than Buffalo, so the ‘Phins win the nod with 78 percent of picks predicting they will make up the 13.5-point cushion given to Carolina.

Miami is also the most popular pick in Splash Survival with 26.56 percent of entries, a couple points above the 24.30 percent that backed the Bills. It’s narrow, but there’s just enough to say that the Splash universe thinks the Dolphins-Panthers matchup will be the biggest snoozefest. If it’s any consolation, it appears that Splash pickers wouldn’t mind skipping the Bills-Giants pairing for something more compelling, too.

Weird Outlier

The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites in their date with Denver at Arrowhead on Thursday night. Kansas City has outdone its in-division counterpart 15 times running, which tied for the longest active winning streak over a single opponent in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos in 11 outings. Denver is 1-4 with a defense that gave up 31 points to Zach Wilson and the Jets a week ago and 70 to the Dolphins earlier in the season. In Splash NFL Survival contests, the Chiefs received 14.83 percent of entries in Week 6, the third-most of any team.

But when picking this game against the spread, Splash users aren’t so sure that the Chiefs will cover. Only 52 percent of pickers said the home team would beat the visitors by 11 or more, a stark contrast to how Splash users evaluated the other matchups with similarly lopsided lines (Dolphins 78 percent to cover, Rams 72 percent to cover, Bills 78 percent to cover).

That’s not a contradiction from the Splash universe – thinking the Broncos will beat the spread is different from thinking the Broncos will beat the Chiefs. But normally, Splash pickers don’t have such a dichotomy when it comes to Survival picks and whether or not the big favorites will cover. We’ll find out soon if it means something or not.