What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 5

We’re really into the meat of the NFL season now. For the first time in 2023, not all 32 teams will take the field this week with the Browns, Bucs, Chargers, and Seahawks all enjoying their bye weeks off. That left users across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports with 14 games to parse through in their weekly predictions.

Utilizing the data available from all those thousands of picks, it’s time to see how this coming week’s NFL action will go, at least according to the Splash user base. If you want to see how Splash pickers thought Week 4 would shake out, you can find that here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Detroit Lions.

The Lions are 8.5-point favorites in their Sunday showdown with the Panthers in Detroit, the second-biggest line of Week 5. Still, 80 percent of Splash pickers think the home team will walk away the winners by even more than the allotted line. Plus, no team received more support in NFL Survivor contests than the Lions with 35.29 percent of entries assuming Detroit will carry them safely to next week.

It’s been a strong start to the season for Detroit, who have undergone a renaissance in the last two years to escape a stint in the NFL’s basement. Now sitting at 3-1 having already won at Arrowhead and Lambeau, the Lions are getting plenty of respect in the Splash universe.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are one of the most lifeless teams in the modern NFL. It’s been a difficult introduction to professional football for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, and Carolina is still on the search for its first triumph of the campaign after four unsuccessful attempts. According to Splash users, the Panthers won’t find what they’ve been looking for at Ford Field.

Nobody Believes In…

The Dallas Cowboys.

The 49ers are one the last two remaining undefeated outfits in the National Football League, and they have come here convincingly. Only the Rams in Week 2 have been within a score of San Francisco at the final whistle, and the Niners are the only team that boasts averages in the top five of the league in offensive yards per game gained (second with 398.0) and defensive yards per game allowed (fifth with 284.3). Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing yards at 459, Brock Purdy is third in the league in completion percentage at 72.3, and when one of San Francisco’s defenders have his hands on a ball carrier, they usually get them on the ground – the team’s total of 13 missed tackles is the second-fewest in the NFL).

The Cowboys steamrolled over three of their four challengers so far this season, beating the Giants, Jets, and Patriots by a combined 95 points. But doing that against some of the worst teams in the league, plus dropping a stinker to the Cardinals in their other game, isn’t enough to convince Splash pickers that Dallas can get it done when it goes to San Francisco this weekend.

A 3.5-point spread in favor of the Niners isn’t nearly enough to Splash users, who resoundingly asserted to the tune of 75 percent that San Francisco will cover that amount. For such a huge rivalry between two teams that look to be among the best in the NFC, that’s a strong statement of disbelief in the visitors. That same confidence didn’t carry over to NFL Survivor, where only 0.29 percent of entries went for the 49ers this week, which makes sense given the nature of the game. But more notably, even fewer went for the Cowboys as the 0.06 percent Dallas received places in the bottom five for backing in Week 5. Not many were willing to stake their survival on the Niners overcoming the Cowboys, but almost nobody wanted to put their future in the hands of Dak Prescott and company.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

When two AFC North teams get together, you can generally expect a punting clinic, scores in the teens or below, and plenty of bad blood. That’s likely to be the case when the Ravens go to Pittsburgh this Sunday. The games between these two has typically been instrumental in determining the division’s outcome, but this time around, the Steelers don’t look anything like a team that could top the quad, let alone make the playoffs.

The Steelers spot one of the most ineffective offenses in the NFL right now, struggling mightily on the ground and through the air. The defense, which has traditionally been stout, is about as porous as they come, allowing opposing offenses to gain an average of more than 400 yards per game so far this season. There hasn’t been much to be excited about in Pittsburgh this fall.

Meanwhile, the Ravens look like their normal selves, which is much better than what the Steelers have rolled out thus far. The 3.5-point favoring the books have granted Baltimore is not enough for Splash pickers, with 73 percent of them thinking that the road team will cover. It is one of the most lopsided picks against the spread from Splash users this week.

But that same confidence didn’t translate over to NFL Survivor, where only 1.85 percent of entries are aimed at the Ravens to take down the Steelers. That ranks sixth in popularity for Week 5 Survivor picks and well below some of the much-preferred options this week, like the Lions, Dolphins, and Commanders.

It’s a divisional rivalry between two teams that publicly dislike one another, and it’s at Heinz Field. Maybe the stage is set for an upset – only once has one of these teams scored at least 20 points in each of their last five meetings, and low-scoring affairs can lead to variance in outcomes. But if you’re looking to avoid the most common choices to slide under the radar and want to save teams like the Dolphins and Bills for later, then the Ravens might provide you with some solid value in Week 5.

Too Close to Call

The Titans have won five in a row over the Colts, a streak that dates back to November 2020. The two AFC South counterparts will meet again this Sunday, and Splash pickers have no idea if Indianapolis will snap the skid or if Tennessee will make it six.

The books don’t have much of a clue either. They’ve assigned the Colts as the favorites, but only by 0.5 points, a margin so thin that all it does is acknowledge the contest’s location. Picking against that spread, Splash users went for the Titans to overcome it, but barely: just 52 percent backed Tennessee, while 48 percent think the home Colts will get it done. Only 0.59 percent of NFL Survivor entries decided to make the outcome of this game what decides their lives, another indicator that the users of Splash are not sure how it will shake out at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Tennessee is coming off of a bulldozing of the Bengals, 27-3, in Week 4, while Indianapolis had its heart broken in overtime to the Rams, 29-23, the second week in a row that the Colts went to OT. Both teams sit at 2-2 with promise and apprehension swirling. Their seasons could go either way at this point, and how things end on Sunday will have a major impact on their chances to make it out of the regular season and into the postseason.

Upset Alert

Despite having put out some of the worst offensive displays in the NFL so far this season, the Bengals are 3.5-point favorites when they travel to the desert this weekend to take on the Cardinals. Even though Cincinnati is last in the league in yards gained per game (236.0), have done very little on the ground, and quarterback Joe Burrow has been a shell of his former self as he plays through a strained right calf injury, the books think the Bengals will get it done in Glendale.

Splash pickers do not agree. More than half – 55 percent, to be exact – went for the Cardinals against the spread in this one, which makes the 3.5-point line in this one the largest that the majority of Splash users crossed. After watching the Bengals look completely lifeless for most of last Sunday’s contest in Nashville, it seems Splash pickers aren’t so sure enough will change in Arizona.

It’s important to note, though: 4.97 percent of NFL Survivor entries have honed in on the Bengals this week. That’s the fourth-most of any team in Week 5. Maybe those Survivor players know something that the spread pickers don’t. Maybe about 5 percent of Survivor players are about to have their entries ripped up. We won’t know until Sunday, but the numbers indicate that Splash users think the Bengals are on upset alert.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Dolphins are the biggest favorites in the NFL this week with 10.5 points separating them and the Giants in the lead up to their meeting in South Florida. The two-possession spread wasn’t enough to dissuade Splash users from supporting Miami en masse, though. With 82 percent of pickers going for the Dolphins to dump the Giants by at least 11 points, there is no Week 5 matchup that Splash users think is more lopsided.

That opinion is further confirmed when you consider the NFL Survivor contests data. The Dolphins just barely missed out on the top spot with 35.04 percent of entries on their side; that is only 0.25 percent less than the Lions. To further illustrate the belief in Miami to best New York: the next-most popular Survivor choice, the Commanders, received 9.45 percent of entries.

There’s a reason why we tabbed the Dolphins as this week’s Lock of the Week. We’re so confident in the ‘Phins to win in Week 5 that new players in our NFL $50K Big Blue Splash Survivor Revival contest will get their money back on one entry if they go for Miami but the Giants pull the upset. For those keeping track at home, our Lock of the Week picks are 4-0 so far this season.

So, all signs Splash point very strongly toward a comfortable Dolphins victory at Hard Rock Stadium. The fact that Daniel Jones is in the top two among NFL quarterbacks for interceptions thrown and sacks taken might play a role in this majority opinion. Perhaps it’s the multiple demolitions of subpar defenses (in case you were wondering, the Giants are yet to keep an opponent below 24 points this season) Miami has produced already in 2023. A healthy mix is the most likely culprit. Regardless, the Splash crystal ball says it’s a rout down south this Sunday. Hit snooze.