What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 4

We’re nearly one month into the NFL season. As we continue to settle into this long ride, Splash is still asking users across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports how they think the week’s proceedings will go.

The results are in, and it’s time to parse through the picks to see what the Splash universe is expecting from the NFL’s Week 4 action. You can find what Splash users thought would happen last week here.

Everybody Believes In…

The San Francisco 49ers.

No team is coming close to gathering the level of backing among Splash survivor players as the 49ers are this week in their home matchup with the Cardinals. More than one-third of all entries – 36.43 percent, to be exact – have selected San Francisco as their angle for survival to the next round. That’s more than double the percentage of entries that chose the next-most popular option.

The Niners are also Splash’s Lock of the Week, meaning survival players who join the Splash Week 4 Revival Contest and pick them this week will get their money back from one of their entries if Arizona overcomes its 14.5-point underdog status and pulls off a second-straight shocker. This likely influenced some players to go with the 49ers and may have something to do with the overwhelming support, but the odds were that San Francisco would be the top choice anyway; the 49ers are one of the league’s best, and the Cardinals are starting Joshua Dobbs. This game has the fattest line of any this week for a reason.

Nobody Believes In…

The Atlanta Falcons.

Off to a 2-1 start and statistically one of the best defenses to start the season, the Falcons still find themselves 2.5-point underdogs this weekend in a game across the pond against the Jaguars. Splash pickers saw that line and ran, with 70 percent of them confident the visitors will cover. That’s after those same pickers (presumably) watched the Jags struggle mightily at home to the Texans last weekend.

The disrespect translated in NFL Survivor, too. Only 1.69 percent of survivor picks went for Jacksonville as their representative this week, which may seem small but is enough to make the Jags the eighth-most popular pick among all entries. When most teams receive less than 0.5 percent each week, getting close to 2 percent is notable.

For some reason, Splash users do not believe in the Falcons. Maybe it’s because they’re averaging the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. Maybe it’s because of how hard Detroit’s defense clamped down on Atlanta’s offense a week ago. Maybe it’s because they assume the Jags will have a superior knowledge of the Tube and that advantage will work its way onto the football field. Whatever is it, Splash users has spoken loudly on this one, and it’s not in the Falcons’ favor.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Vikings have fumbled their way to an 0-3 record, now only one loss away from matching their total defeats from the entirety of the 2022 regular season. To put all of your eggs in their basket would be an excellent way to get salmonella poisoning.

But it hasn’t been all bad from Minnesota. The team has been one of the league’s most potent in the air, averaging the third-most passing yards per outing at 406.0. If not for the disgusting number of turnovers, those yards would have come to mean more points, and the Vikings wouldn’t be winless with three losses all by one score each.

You can’t know that the Vikings will clean up their generosity with the ball this week when they go to Carolina, but Minnesota fans can take solace in knowing that the Panthers defense hasn’t been generating too many takeaways thus far and is still yet to recover a fumble. Plus, it’ll be either Bryce Young or Andy Dalton calling the shots for the opposition, not Jalen Hurts or Justin Herbert.

The point is, the Vikings aren’t going winless. They’re not especially good, but their current expected win-loss is 1.2-1.8, according to Pro Football Reference. Meanwhile, the Panthers are a much more believable 0-3 and are early on in a new phase for the franchise. This is reflected in the 3.5-point line the books have laid out in favor of the Vikings, which Splash pickers must not have thought was nearly enough given 74 percent of them predict that Minnesota will cover. In NFL Survivor, the Vikings collected 4.91 percent of all entries, the sixth-most of any team this week.

You probably won’t want to use the Vikings in survivor in any other week this season. The 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, and other of the game’s Week 4 darlings will be tasty down the line. If you want to save the most elite options for later in the campaign, the Vikings are something to contemplate.

Too Close to Call

There are three matchups this week that Splash pickers don’t have a firm grasp on: Dolphins at Bills, Rams at Colts, and Ravens at Browns. The home team is favored in each by at least 2.5 points, and in all three, more than 50 percent of Splash users picked the road team against the spread.

The hosting Bills are 2.5-point favorites over the Dolphins, who stamped 70 points on Sean Payton’s head last week. That offensive explosion might explain by 59 percent of Splash users went for Miami against the spread. Only 0.39 percent of survivor entries made a pick in this game. Survivor players don’t want anything to do with this one, probably because they have no idea what’s going to happen.

The Browns are also 2.5-point favorites in their matchup versus the Ravens at Cleveland Browns Stadium. This divisional dance between two 2-1 teams has Splash pickers confused – 47 percent think Cleveland will cover the spread, while 53 percent believe Baltimore will at least keep it within two points. With just 0.44 percent of survivor players taking a shot on one of these teams this week, it’s clear that it’s unclear to Splash users how this one will shake out.

The Rams are 1.5-point underdogs as they travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the 2-1 Colts, and 55 percent of Splash users picked Los Angeles against that spread. Of these three games, this one got the most attention in survivor as 0.94 percent of entries went for the Rams or Colts, but there’s not enough to separate these two to say which way the Splash universe expects the scales to tip.

Upset Alert

I don’t like promoting a line this small as an upset, but Splash pickers do not think the Saints should be favored by 3.5 points when they go to Tampa Bay this Sunday – only 46 percent of them picked New Orleans against the spread.

That’s why I’ll give a different answer for the actual upset alert of the week: watch out, Cowboys! The Patriots will serve as the opposition at Jerry World on Sunday after earning their first victory of the season at the expense of the Jets in Week 3. The Cowboys are aiming to get back on track after a surprisingly double-digit defeat in the desert to the Cardinals in their previous contest.

The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites, and 66 percent of Splash pickers think they will cover that spread. Other than the 49ers and their monstrous 14.5-point line against the Cardinals, Splash users gave Dallas the least backing of any favorite of 5.5 points or more this week. Survivor players seem wearier of the Cowboys than usual, too, with only 5.28 percent of the pack going for them in Week 4, a far cry from the double-digits they were regularly receiving before.

It could be because of Dallas’s defeat last week. Maybe Bill Belichick is enough of a deterrent. It doesn’t look like Splash users expect this one to end in an upset, but given the games that the books think are lopsided, this is the most likely shocker, according to them.

Biggest Snoozefest

Splash users did not do a great job of predicting the snoozefest last week – the Cardinals had much different plans, while the Cowboys misunderstood their instructions to mean they should remain asleep during the game. Perhaps the pickers’ prediction of the Chiefs putting the Jets to bed will be more accurate.

Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite in the game at MetLife Stadium, a line that 82 percent of Splash users scoffed at. No other line this week surmised such strong support for one side. And with the line that large, it’s probable that a good number of the 18 percent that went for New York against the spread don’t think the Jets will win, just keep it within nine or closer. Survivor players are hopping on the Chiefs bandwagon this week, too. With 17.44 percent of entries going for Kansas City, the defending Super Bowl champions are second on the list for survivor picks in Week 4.

The Jets are scrambling to overcome the loss of Aaron Rodgers while the Chiefs are coming off of a thorough beatdown of the Bears. It’s not hard to see the same signs Splash pickers see.