What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 3

Week 3 of the NFL season is soon to come, and users across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports have let us know how they think the contests will go. Now, let’s put it all together and see inside the mind of the Splash collective.

If you want to see how accurate Splash pickers were in the opening two weeks of the campaign, you can see Week 1 here and Week 2 here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s unusual for people to believe in the reigning Super Bowl champs, especially when they host 0-2 opposition that oozes vulnerability. The books have set the Bears at Chiefs line at 12.5 points, tied for the largest of the week. Still, 66 percent of Splash users are predicting that Kansas City will cover that spread. Splash survivor players have honed in on this matchup, too, with the plurality of entries – 20.29 percent – choosing the Chiefs as their representative this week.

If you’re unsure about the risk of playing Survivor, Splash wanted to ease your mind. With everybody and their mother believing in the Chiefs to deal with the Bears, we decided that we do, too. Kansas City is our Lock of the Week this week, meaning that if you pick the Chiefs in our Survival Revival Contest before kickoff, Justin Fields and the Bears offense come across an inexplicably enhanced football that contains the decision-making skills of Patrick Mahomes and the play-calling ability of Andy Reid that they all touch at the same time to absorb the transfer of those elite capabilities, then you get your money back (max one refund - $10 value).

Our locks have both hit in each of the last two weeks, so we’re not too worried. Make us put our money where our mouth is.

Nobody Believes In…

The Denver Broncos.

Splash users are all in on the Vic Fangio revenge game. Russell Wilson and Co. head to Hard Rock for a clash against one of the league's best offenses, and our users aren't confident that the Broncos can stop them. Only 22% of users are taking Denver to cover 6.5 points. If the Broncos start off 0-3, is it time to start talking about regime change? Or does Sean Payton get the benefit of the doubt? We'll find out on Sunday.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

The Seahawks burned a number of people in Week 1, but they look like a possible sweet spot for comfort and attention in Week 3, assuming Splash pickers know what they’re talking about. Seattle is a 5.5-point favorite in its home game against the Panthers this Sunday, a line that Splash users showed little respect. The Seahawks snatched an astounding 83 percent of the picks against the spread, meaning a large majority of Splash pickers not only think Seattle will win, but it’s not going to be close.

But Seattle only has 6.21 percent of survivor entries aimed its way, the sixth-most popular pick of Week 3 and a steep drop from the 49ers in fourth. If you’re still alive in survivor, then odds are you haven’t used the Seahawks yet, and selecting them would allow you to save teams that will probably claim more games this season for later on. Either survivor players know something spread pickers don’t, or there’s a great opportunity to coast through to Week 4 sitting right in front of your face.

Too Close to Call

The Raiders are 1.5-point favorites in their pairing with Pittsburgh at home this Sunday night, a narrow line between two 1-1 teams that have shown some weaknesses to start the show. There’s still a lot to learn about each of these outfits, and Splash pickers aren’t quite sure what to think.

Despite their underdog and visiting statuses, 52 percent of Splash users went for the Steelers, one of three matchups this week in which the majority went for the ‘dog. The small spread and almost 50-50 split among picks against it means the Splash collective doesn’t know who will be smiling after this one. Add in that just 0.5 percent of all survivor players chose this game as the one they picked, and the picture gets even clearer. Or muddier, depending on your perspective.

Upset Alert

The books think the Browns will defend their turf against the Titans this weekend; Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite in this duel between 1-1 squads.

It’s not a huge line, so maybe it isn’t enough to truly garner an “upset alert.” But the reaction to the Browns holding the title of favorites did not sit well with the Splash public. Pickers against the spread prefer Tennessee to the tune of 66 percent, even as the away side. It is the strongest rebuke of any spread this week by a wide margin.

Maybe it’s a poor offensive showing against the Steelers that did it. Maybe it’s Nick Chubb’s injury. Maybe Splash users are big believers in the Titans. More than likely, it’s some combination. Regardless, Tennessee is an underdog that Splash pickers wholeheartedly endorse.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Cardinals are 0-2, squandered a 21-point second-half lead last week, and Joshua Dobbs is their starting quarterback. The Cowboys are 2-0, they’ve won their games by a combined 70-10, and they lead the league in sacks, defensive yards allowed per game, and forced turnovers. These teams will meet one another in Arizona this weekend. Splash pickers are asleep already.

Dallas is a 12.5-point favorite, and Splash users still overwhelmingly believe it will cover, with 69 percent stating such. The Cowboys are also a darling among survivor players, amassing 17.98 percent of picks this week, the third-most of any team.

There is basically no indication from the Splash universe that the outcome of this outing is in question, let alone that it will be competitive. If there’s a game to snooze through, it’s this one.