What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 7

If pre-game lines mean anything, this will be one of the most hotly-contested weeks of the 2023 NFL campaign. Nine of the 13 matchups set for Week 7 have spreads of 3.5 points or smaller, and none of them are wider than 8.5. We haven’t seen that little clarity in the days prior to kick offs since the start of the season when nobody had seen what any of the league’s 32 could do on a non-preseason field.

This is reflected in how Splash users made their picks this week across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports. There is no overwhelming majority opinion toward any spread, at least not to the degree of previous weeks in which some matchups garnered 80-plus percent going one way. Outside of one highly-popular pick, Splash NFL Survivor players widely distributed their positions.

Any given Sunday is a trope often pushed in this league, but in a week like this one, it feels more true than usual.

Let’s see what we can learn about the upcoming action through the thoughts of the robust Splash community. If you want to see how Week 7 compared to Week 6, you can check out how Splash users felt in the lead up to those games here.

Everybody Believes In…

The Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle will host divisional foe Arizona this Sunday, and the home team drew an incredible level of backing among Splash Survivor players. The Seahawks received 46.76 percent of all Survivor entries, by far the most by nearly 30 percent, a strong statement of belief from Splash users. Keeping context in mind, that number may be so high in part because many entries have already used the usual suspects for Survivor staking, like the Bills, Chiefs, or 49ers, leaving less options to choose from. But still, for such a giant portion of entries to go for Seattle means something – it’s among the highest percent any team has gathered in a given week in 2023. If the Cardinals find a way to pull off the upset and grab their second victory of the season, a lot of Splash Survivor players will be tearing their hair out.

The Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites, and 63 percent of Splash pickers against the spread think they will beat that. It’s not the biggest outpouring of support, but a clear majority stands with Seattle to cover, and of the 37 percent who think the Cardinals will keep it within a touchdown, many of them probably don’t expect Arizona to have the higher number on the scoreboard by the final whistle.

In all, Splash users are steadfast in standing behind the Seahawks this weekend. That’s a lot of faith in a team with a secondary that has been torn apart for the fifth-most passing yards per game in the league (257.6), but these picks probably say more about the Cardinals than the ‘Hawks.

Nobody Believes In…

The New Orleans Saints.

Despite playing at home and being 2.5-point favorites, Splash users are demonstrably against the Saints this week. Only 32 percent of Splash pickers think New Orleans will cover the spread on Thursday night, with 68 percent believing the visiting Jaguars will keep it closer or win. The Saints in Week 7 are one of the least supported favorites of the entire season so far.

In fact, the Jags have found more backers in Splash Survivor contests this week than the Saints, a rarity for an underdog. Jacksonville has 1.54 percent of all Survivor entries, making it the 10th-most popular pick, while New Orleans sits at 0.78 percent, which comes in at 12th on the list.

It’s abnormal for a favorite to find itself this disliked in the Splash universe. Even in a matchup that the books think is tight, Splash users are resolute in their rebuke of the Saints, made even more poignant by Trevor Lawrence’s mild left knee sprain that could limit his effectiveness, assuming he does suit up.

Possible Survivor Value Pick

Splash Survivor contests picks are all over the place this week, other than the almost 50 percent that went for the Seahawks. After the Bills, who sit at second with 17.50 percent, no other team received double digits or even came all that close. That means there is plenty of value to be had. But when you comb through the pick data, Tampa Bay looks like the one to circle.

The Falcons are coming to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday, and they are 2.5-point underdogs in the divisional matchup with the Buccaneers. But most Splash users think Tampa Bay will have no problem surpassing that line with 76 percent of picks against the spread predicting the Bucs cover, which is the second-most confidence any favorite found this week within the Splash universe. Just 0.19 percent of Splash Survivor entries have been pinned on the Falcons, one of the smallest totals for any team this week.

But for whatever reason, just 3.36 percent of Splash Survivor entries are staked on the Bucs in Week 7. There are six teams with more Survivor entries aimed at them, including the Browns, Raiders, and Rams. Splash users are all in on Tampa Bay covering, but putting their Survivor lives on the line is a step too far. If the picks against the spread mean anything, the Bucs are a great opportunity for Splash Survivor players to slide through to Week 8 while much of the competition is focused elsewhere.

Too Close to Call

Coming off of their first loss of the season, it doesn’t get any easier for the Eagles as the Dolphins come to Philly for a big one on Sunday night. Both teams possess two of the most potent offenses in the NFL, and both teams enter with 5-1 records and designs on deep runs into January and beyond. The books lean slightly toward the home team, allotting a 1.5-point line in favor of the Eagles, and Splash pickers didn’t really know what to do with it.

Splash users sided stronger with Miami as 54 percent of picks against the spread assume the visitors will lose by one point or win. That leaves 46 percent who say Philadelphia will cover the 1.5 points and little consensus on what will happen on the field. Survivor players generally stayed away from this one, too, likely because they have no clue what to expect: 0.45 percent have assigned themselves to the Eagles, 0.07 are attached to the Dolphins, and the combined 0.52 percent of entries that chose this matchup for their survival is the lowest total for any Week 7 contest.

The Splash universe is murky on how Miami and Philly will fare at the Linc. If you can, you should catch this one.

Upset Alert

I don’t like calling an underdog victory in the face of a 2.5-point spread an upset, but with the lines so tight this week, I would be remiss not to mention how little confidence the Splash universe has in the Ravens despite their standing as favorites over the Lions. Splash pickers are in agreement that the Ravens will not cover that spread, with 70 percent going for the Lions and just 30 percent opting for Baltimore even though the game will be played at M&T Bank Stadium. This is the most anti-favorite that Splash users have been against the spread this season, and so even if a 2.5-point spread isn’t enough for a true upset, I would be remiss not to mention it.

The other one to watch that would accurately be classified as an upset if it were to become reality is the Chargers over the Chiefs. Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the divisional clash set for Arrowhead, and most Splash pickers – 67 percent – think the defending Super Bowl champions will cover that amount. While grabbing two-thirds of the picks shows the majority maintain Kansas City will win, it is less lopsided than other favorites who have comparable lines. Additionally, only 3.10 percent of Survivor entries went for the Chiefs this week, making them the eighth-most common pick of Week 7. That low number could be partly attributed to players previously using Kansas City and now not being eligible to pick them again, but that can’t be the full story. If there is a true upset this week in the NFL, the Splash pick data points to this AFC West showdown.

Biggest Snoozefest

The Patriots have been catastrophically bad through the first six weeks of the season, wallowing at 1-5 and sporting one of the worst point differentials in the entire league. Meanwhile, the Bills have shown why they have been one of the top dogs in the AFC for the past handful of years and are on track for another postseason bid. Splash users are well aware of both sets of facts.

That’s why 78 percent of Splash pickers went for Buffalo to cover the 8.5-point spread even though it’s the largest line of the week. That is the most sponsorship that any favorite found within the Splash universe. The Bills are the second-most picked team in Splash Survivor contests with 17.50 percent of entries going their way, more than 10 percent above the Rams at third. Conversely, almost nobody wants to put their future in the hands of New England; its 0.08 percent of Survivor entries is tied for the fourth-least of any team in Week 7.

This is also why Splash has nominated the Bills as this week’s Lock of the Week, meaning new entrants to our Week 7 Splash NFL Survivor Revival contest with a grand prize of $15,000 that pick Buffalo over New England this week will get their money back (up to one entry, a $10 value) if the home team shocks us all. Last week was our first Lock of the Week miss of the season, but with a 5-1 mark and plenty of reason to believe the Bills won’t disappoint, we feel good about our decision. But if the picks for this one are any indication, you will not feel good about your decision if you choose to dedicate three hours on Sunday to watching this one, especially if you’re a Patriots partisan.