What the Pick Data Says About the NFL Conference Championship Games

One of the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, or Lions will join immortality as the ring bearer of Super Bowl LVIII. There are still three games to go between now and the crowning of pro football’s next champion, and two of them are set for this Sunday: the AFC and NFC Championship Games. 

Throughout the entire NFL season, Splash has invited its users to give their opinions on the upcoming outings. We have collected that data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports, and then I have searched for any answers I can find in the haystack. 

I am at it once again, but like last week for the Divisional Round, I’m adding more. My personal picks and keys for each conference title games are in there, too, to put a bit more meat on the bone ahead of these colossal clashes. Who knows, this insight might even help you in your Splash contests this week.

Splash pickers against the spread had a rough go in the Divisional Round. They were incorrectly confident in the Bills to not only win but cover the 2.5-point spread against the Chiefs. They also whiffed on the Ravens covering and the 49ers not outpacing their line. At least they hit on the Lions. Meanwhile, your boy went 4-0 in his picks, though I wasn’t picking against the spread. Sure, maybe some of my score predictions were a little off - Houston did not, in fact, keep it close - but please just let me have this. 

Let’s see if I can keep this going and if Splash users can do better. I believe in you, people. 

No. 3 Kansas City at No. 1 Baltimore 

For the third time in four years, the Chiefs bucked the Bills from championship contention. A go-ahead touchdown pass to Rashee Rice early in the fourth quarter eventually doubled as the game-winning score thanks to a Tyler Bass miss wide right from 44 yards with fewer than two minutes to play, sending Kansas City to its sixth-straight AFC Championship Game, 27-24. 

The Ravens have returned to Championship Weekend for the first time since 2012. Will this trip be as fruitful? To get here, they put the Texans in their place, 34-10. Lamar Jackson was responsible for four touchdowns on the day - two rushing, two passing - and the Baltimore defense allowed Houston just 38 yards on the ground the whole game. In short, the Ravens blew them out. 

The AFC’s No. 1 seed is the 3.5-point favorite to claim the conference’s Super Bowl slot. That’s not enough to a majority of Splash pickers against the spread, 59 percent of whom predict that the Ravens will win by a wider margin. I don’t know how many of the 41 percent of pickers who chose the Chiefs also expect the reigning Super Bowl champions to triumph on reality’s scoreboard, but it’s not enough to indicate a big belief in Kansas City. According to Splash users, the Ravens have one foot in Las Vegas.

These teams have two of the best defenses in the league, especially at mitigating the pass. In the regular season, the Chiefs gave up an average of 176.5 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and the Ravens allowed 191.9 yards through the air per contest, the sixth-fewest in the league. However, Kansas City is much more reliant on its passing productivity than Baltimore is - the Chiefs attempted the second-most passes in pro football this season (635), while the Ravens tried the second-least among the 32 (494). Assuming both secondaries play at the elite level they are capable of, it seems that Kansas City would be more deeply impacted.

Baltimore is more about its run game, which could be unfortunate for the Chiefs. Kansas City finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game (113.2). That average has been even worse over the team’s last five games, dipping to 126.8 per outing. The 182 yards the Bills gained on the ground in the Divisional Round does not inspire confidence. The Chiefs also factored into the NFL’s bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (342), a very bad omen when Lamar “5,258 Career Rushing Yards” Jackson is lined up across from you. 

If Kansas City is to win, it must do better against the run than it has for much of the year. If Baltimore is allowed to come close to repeating the 229 rushing yards it achieved versus the Texans, then the Chiefs are cooked.

My Pick: Baltimore 30, Kansas City 23

If you have Patrick Mahomes, you will always have a chance. For years, NFL fans have watched quarterbacks of his caliber, including the man himself, win games like this over and over again. But I don’t think he will be enough this weekend. I see the Ravens running so effectively against the front seven of the Chiefs that it overrides the Mahomes effect. This is Jackson’s time.

No. 3 Detroit at No. 1 San Francisco 

The Lions ended a 32-year playoff win drought in the Wild Card Round, and they put a stop to their NFC Championship Game dry spell of the same length in the Divisional Round. Detroit survived another single-score showdown to get here, outlasting Tampa Bay, 31-23, behind two fourth quarter touchdowns. Jared Goff tossed for 287 yards and two touchdowns and the defense forced two interceptions on the team’s way to victory. 

The Packers pushed the Niners to the end, forging multiple opportunities to take the game away from the NFC’s top seed. A fortuitous 41-yard field goal failure from Green Bay with 6:21 remaining in the contest helped San Francisco quite a bit, but everyone needs a little luck in the playoffs. Brock Purdy still had to talisman his team down the field to take back the lead, and San Francisco’s defense had to spoil Green Bay’s last gasp for the franchise to qualify for its fourth NFC title game appearance in five years, 24-21. 

The 49ers are favored at home by 6.5 points, but 61 percent of Splash pickers against the spread don’t have as much faith in the No. 1 seed as the bookmakers do. More than three out of every five Splash users believes the Lions will keep it within a touchdown at least, which makes it difficult to say how much of the Splash public is forecasting the upset. It’s probably below 50 percent, but the waters are muddy. 

Both of these squads ended the 2023-24 regular season ranked in the top four of the league in passing yards per game; the Lions were second at 258.9, and the Niners were fourth at 257.9. One of them was much more efficient, though - San Francisco attempted the fewest passes in the NFL (491), but it amassed the fourth-most passing yards (4,384), second-most passing touchdowns (33), and the ninth-most first down conversions through the air (207). Based on all that, it shouldn’t surprise you that barely anyone came close to San Francisco’s 8.4 net yards gained per pass attempt. 

The Detroit defense is one of the best in pro football at shutting down the run. Christian McCaffrey will be a major test for the team’s front seven, but how the Lions handle Purdy and his aerial arsenal is the big question mark to me. The Lions allowed 247.4 passing yards per game in the regular season, the sixth-most in the league, and they haven’t kept a quarterback from throwing more than 318 yards since mid-December. The team’s defense has found success through alternate means, but will that be the case when McCaffrey is bearing down on them? Detroit’s secondary cannot remain as porous this Sunday, or San Francisco will pick it apart. 

These teams approach the use of the clock differently. The Lions love to play with tempo, which shows itself in the number of plays their offense executed this season (1,137, the second-most in the NFL). The 49ers prefer a slower style. They took their time between snaps and only got off 1,024 plays in their 17 regular season contests (sixth-fewest in the league). The Team that can impose its preferred pace on the game will be in Las Vegas two weeks later. 

My Pick: San Francisco 31, Detroit 21

The 49ers were the best in the regular season at net yards gained per pass attempt, and the Lions were fourth-worst at net yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7). Detroit is 9-1 this season when it enjoys 31 minutes or more of possession, but its win rate drops steadily when its offense has the ball for any less time. San Francisco is excellently built to deny Detroit such a luxury, but even if it does, the 49ers have found ways to win in seven of the 12 times when they had less than 31 minutes of possession. All of this is to say, I do not like this matchup for the Lions. The unforgettable run ends here. Instead, San Francisco will be on its way to Sin City with a shot at direct revenge for what Baltimore did to the franchise in Super Bowl XLVII.