What the Pick Data Says About the NFL Divisional Round

One round down, three to go. There will be just eight NFL games this week as the league leisures into its Divisional Round. We have shrunk from 14 to eight, and that number is set to slice by two come the end of this weekend.

Like in the lead up to every other week of NFL action this season, we asked Splash users across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports for their thoughts on the football horizon’s offerings. Then I take your collective answers and explain which way the wind blows, per the Splash public.

There is a little twist this week: me. I am including my picks and keys for each of the four matchups, too, just to give you a little extra something to think about before you go and do the same in any of the Splash contests arranged around the NFL Divisional Round.

In the Wild Card Round, Splash pickers against the spread hit on the Lions, Bills, and Chiefs but whiffed on the Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys. I admittedly made my mistakes as well - believing in the Browns in particular proved to be a large oversight - yet had my moments of clarity, like knowing that the Eagles were scheduled to fly anywhere but victory. Win some, lose some. Maybe this week, we can help you win some.

No. 4 Houston at No. 1 Baltimore

This will be the first we’ve seen of Baltimore in these playoffs, but Houston has already made a statement. The Texans trounced the Browns at home last week, 45-14, behind two pick sixes and three C.J. Stroud touchdown passes. Now, the team has its fifth chance in franchise history to advance beyond the Divisional Round, something that has failed to do in all four of its previous opportunities. The Ravens are seeking their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 2012.

The reaction from Splash users to Baltimore being favored by 9.5 points is interesting. Only 37 percent of Splash pickers against the spread think the Ravens will cover, making Baltimore the only favorite this week to receive a minority of the support in its matchup. That is quite a big line given how good the Texans have been lately, and it resulted in 63 percent of Splash users wanting the dog. That makes it tough to tell exactly who Splash pickers have penciled into the next round. Maybe that means we’re in for a good one.

Credit to Houston’s defense for how it played in the second half last week, but Joe Flacco also gifted the Texans 14 points in ways that Lamar Jackson is unlikely to replicate. It will be important to slow down Jackson and his offense, but the key will be unleashing the team’s star rookie quarterback.

The Wild Card win cemented Stroud as the youngest quarterback in NFL history to put a playoff victory under his belt. He is the straw that stirs the drink in Houston. Last April’s No. 2 overall pick doesn’t seem phased by anything, but the Ravens must give him something to think about this Saturday. They’re well-equipped to do it, too; Baltimore led the league in the regular season with 60 sacks, and that was with the eighth-lowest blitz percentage (21.9) to boot. That means the Ravens are getting to the quarterback with four-man rushes, a brutal reality for any offense to face.

Among the quarterbacks left standing in the playoffs, Stroud was sacked the most in the regular season (38 times), and his 7.1 sack percentage is the second-highest - coincidently, only Jackson has him beat in that department. If the Texans are to win this game, their offensive line has to protect its QB like it did against the Browns. Cleveland came into that contest with one of the more formidable front sevens in the league, but its defense recorded zero sacks and just one hit on Stroud in last Saturday’s rout. If the Texans can achieve that again, then they have an excellent shot at erasing all 9.5 of the bookmakers' points.

My Pick: Baltimore 34. Houston 31

I should have been more bullish on Houston last week, and I don’t want to make that misstep again, but I have too much belief in Baltimore to opt for the underdog. The Ravens haven’t just been winning lately, they’ve been slaughtering their opponents when their key starters aren’t voluntarily rested - Baltimore bashed its Week 11 through Week 17 adversaries by an average of more than 16 points, and it wasn’t against a collection of cupcakes, either. I think the Texans make a great game of it and keep the home team from covering, but zero sacks and one hit on Stroud isn’t happening in successive weeks. John Harbaugh gets one step closer to the second Super Bowl of his career.

No. 3 Kansas City at No. 2 Buffalo

Buffalo held off a Pittsburgh comeback attempt in the Wild Card Round, 31-17, to make these the fourth-straight playoffs in which the Bills have won at least one game. In one of the coldest NFL outings ever, Kansas City corralled Miami, 26-7, to reach the Divisional Round for the eighth time in nine years. If Buffalo protects its home turf, it will qualify for the AFC Championship Game for the second time since 1994. If Kansas City ruins Orchard Park’s party, then the franchise will lengthen its AFC Championship Game showing streak that dates back to 2018 to six.

The Bills are 2.5-point favorites in this Divisional Round clash, and most Splash pickers against the spread predicted them to win by even more. Buffalo attracted 62 percent of pickers to its cause, which means the Splash masses expect last year’s Super Bowl champions to exit imminently.

Josh Allen turned the ball over quite a bit this season. His 18 regular season interceptions ranked second-most in the league, and his 3.1 interception percentage placed third. The quarterback likes to take chances, and they pay off plenty - 4,306 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns speak for themselves - but too many times his decisions have harmed the Bills more than helped. Against the Steelers, Allen was interception-free, the fourth time he has played a full 60 minutes without tossing it to the other team. Buffalo is 4-0 in such showdowns. Victory won’t be impossible if Allen fails to keep the ball away from Kansas City, but handing Patrick Mahomes the ball any more times that necessary has not proven to be a positive path for the other 31 NFL teams since 2017. If Allen can avoid turning the ball over, the Bills will be in an outstanding position to exact revenge for 2021. Fortunately for Allen, the Kansas City defense ranked in the bottom-fourth of the league in turnover percentage in the regular season (9.5).

Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins last Saturday, continuing the hot run he had to conclude the regular campaign. The Kansas City receiving core has racked up its fair share of blame for the Chiefs seeming step back this year compared to years previous, but the rookie has stepped up in a major way that might be enough to flip that narrative. Kansas City is 4-0 in games that Rice has put up 91 receiving yards or more and 6-2 when he hits paydirt. How successful the Chiefs are at getting him involved early and often will go a long way in determining Sunday’s outcome.

My Pick: Kansas City 21, Buffalo 17

The Bills began their current six-game win streak with a 20-17 win at Arrowhead in Week 14, and they will have the added benefit of home comforts in this rematch. But I’m still siding with the Chiefs, even though they haven’t seemed like their usual selves for much of 2023-24. A lot of stats point to Buffalo, but my gut is telling that it would be foolish to go against Mahomes and Andy Reid. They have been mainstays in the AFC title game for almost a decade at this point, and I disagree with the Splash masses on their ability to get there again. My condolences, Buffalo.

No. 7 Green Bay at No. 1 San Francisco

Green Bay sent Dallas spiraling, 48-32, to extend its positive run to four in a row and earn its fourth ticket to the Divisional Round in five seasons. A fifth-straight success would get the Packers into their third NFC Championship Game in the same time span and their 10th all-time appearance. San Francisco has coasted on a bye thus far, which confirmed its third Divisional Round showing in as many years. A victory in Santa Clara would mean a seventh NFC title game inclusion dating back to 2011 for the 49ers.

The Niners are heavily favored to advance. Bookmakers have separated the sides by 9.5 points, matching the Texans at Ravens game for the widest line of the round. Splash pickers against the spread split their reactions to the spread almost exactly down the middle: 51 percent picked San Francisco to cover, and the other 49 percent gave Green Bay better benefit. When you weigh that, the scales tip for the 49ers to actually win the game, but a portion of the Splash public see the Packers going down swinging.

San Francisco had one of the best defenses in the league in general this season, but it especially excelled at forcing turnovers. The 49ers led the NFL in interceptions (22) and had the league’s second-best turnover percentage (15.5), signs of a secondary that will relentlessly punish mistakes. Jordan Love is in his first playoff rodeo. He was impressive in his first starting season and brilliant in Arlington last Sunday to the tune of 272 passing yards, three touchdowns, and a 157.2 rating. Love has been intercepted just once dating back to Week 10, and that anomaly was a month and a half ago.

Can he hold his hot streak and remain mishap-free against this defense? In the seven games this season in which Love threw at least one pick, the Packers are 1-6. In the 11 times he has avoided any interceptions, Green Bay is 9-2. If the 49ers can force Love into errant throws that serve the ever-efficient Brock Purdy stolen possessions, they will win this game. Love must be flawless to orchestrate another major upset.

My Pick: San Francisco 37, Green Bay 28

San Francisco is just too good. Its offense can hurt you in so many ways. Its workhorse Christian McCaffrey can chew the clock and grind opponents down. It can kill you with the deep ball downfield to Brandon Aiyuk or eat massive chunks down the middle to George Kittle. The Green Bay defense will have its hands full handling everything the Niners have to throw at it. For the Packers to win, their offense will have to be virtually perfect. Love could be a factor in this league for years to come, and he will impress at times in this game, but the 2023-24 train stops in Santa Clara.

No. 4 Tampa Bay at No. 3 Detroit

The Bucs eliminated danger early against the Eagles in their 32-9 triumph in the Wild Card Round. That performance has them in the Divisional Round for the third time in four go-arounds. Trips to this point have been much less frequent for the Lions. They’re here for the first time since George Bush Sr. roamed the Oval Office thanks to a dramatic 24-23 success versus Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Tampa Bay is on the hunt for its fifth NFC title game trip in franchise history, while Detroit has featured in the fixture only once before.

By 5.5 points, the Lions are the favorites to make it through. Your eyes do not deceive you: the Detroit Lions are truly favored to play in the NFC Championship. In fact, 67 percent of Splash pickers against the spread don’t think it’s a big enough spread - two-thirds of pickers expected the Lions to cover, leaving a small segment of the population who think the Bucs have much of a chance on the final scoreboard. According to the Splash universe, Detroit should prepare to party like it’s 1991.

Last week, I pointed out how important it was for the Eagles to handle how much the Bucs love to blitz. Philadelphia couldn’t do it, and it led to its offense struggling to nine points. The Lions will have to do a better job with it than the Eagles did, and they’re equipped to. Jared Goff is one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the league, and David Montgomery ranked among the NFL’s best in first down runs (59, sixth) and rushing success rate (54.8, seventh) in the regular season. Running against the blitz can be tough, though, so the Lions will need Goff to live up to his 50.9 passing success rate, the third-best in pro football in 2023-24. In the regular season, the Lions averaged 2.3 seconds between the snap and the ball being thrown or the pocket collapsing, tied for the league’s third-fastest time. They experienced 213 blitzes, also the third-most in the NFL. 

All signs point to Detroit’s offense matching up well in the face of Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy scheme. But Lavonte David won’t care what the paper says, and if he finds a way into the backfield time and time again, the scoreboard won’t either.

Like this entire season has been, Sunday presents a massive opportunity for Baker Mayfield to set the record straight on his standing in this league. Throughout his career, the narratives surrounding the quarterback have shared principles similar to roller coasters. He was outstanding last round, responsible for 337 passing yards and three touchdown tosses for a rating of 119.8. If he is to be known as one of the best quarterbacks in football, then he has to capitalize now. Tampa Bay will require its shot caller to exceed the likely steady performance Goff will produce.

My Pick: Detroit 24, Tampa Bay 13

Tampa Bay blitzed the Eagles to death, but I don’t think it will go the same when the Bucs try it in Detroit. The Lions have seen and mitigated such a strategy many times before, and their ability to handle the blitz will be the difference. Emotion will play a role, too. We all saw how Ford Field was on Wild Card Weekend - imagine the scenes when the Lions are one step closer to the ultimate prize? The Bucs have made some nice memories in 2023-24, but the Lions will keep their dream of a first NFL championship since 1957 breathing.

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