What the Pick Data Says About NFL Wild Card Weekend

The 2023-24 NFL season has shed itself of the 18 outfits too weak to survive to this stage. It’s Wild Card Weekend, and there is no longer a next week if you can’t hack it in this one.

Twelve teams enter, six sustain. The march to Super Bowl LVIII starts this weekend in six select cities across the country, flushed with attention from the whole football world. This is when stars are born and legacies forged.

You can’t wait for the action, but you aren’t known for your patience. You need to know what is coming in the playoff’s kickoff. This is why I have gathered you all here today.

I don’t have as much pick data to work with as I usually do. NFL Survivor season is over - congratulations to those of you who are wealthier as a result, better luck next year to the rest. But I have enough predictions from Splash users across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports to offer a glimpse into what to expect to witness on the field this weekend. It’s all on the line, and the Splash masses are geared up.

Whether or not Splashers are on the right track with these matchups will be known in the matter of a few days. They aren’t perfect, but Splash users have been correct plenty of times before. Let’s see how you all do under the pressure of the playoffs.

To check out how the Splash community did at calling the happenings in the final week of the regular season, click here.

No. 5 Cleveland at No. 4 Houston

The Browns knew they would be in this position before Week 18 even began, but the Texans’ fate was unclear until it conquered the Colts on the road, 23-19, in a win-and-in, lose-and-out situation and enjoyed some help from the Titans against the Jaguars. Now, not only is Houston in the playoffs after going a combined 11-38-1 from 2020 through 2022, it’s the AFC South champion for the first time since 2019 and hosting a get-together on Wild Card Weekend.

But at least 61 percent of Splash users think the fun stops here for C.J. Stroud and the upstart Texans. Despite having to travel for the contest, Cleveland is favored by 2.5 points, and the majority of Splash pickers against the spread are on its side. The Browns beat the Texans in Week 16, 36-22, and about three out of every five pickers say something similar in the works this week. At the very least, they surmise that Cleveland gets it done by three points or more.

If the Splash public is correct, it would be the second playoff game claimed by Cleveland since 1995. Cue the celebrations along Lake Erie. Additionally, a Browns win would give Joe Flacco the eighth playoff victory away from home in his career, enough to unknot his current tie with Tom Brady at the top of that list.

No. 6 Miami at No. 3 Kansas City

The Dolphins looked poised for a division title and top seed for much of the season, but three defeats in their final five regular season games, including a crucial 21-14 loss to the Bills at the bookend, has relegated them to a wild card spot and a trip outside of their friendly confines. The Chiefs have had their own difficulties this campaign, but they are still here in their usual position after capturing the AFC West crown for the eighth time in a row.

This won’t be the first meeting between these two this season - the Chiefs flanked the ‘Phins in Week 9, 21-14 - but the initial introduction occurred in London. Now, they will meet on American soil, and Tyreek Hill will be back at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since Kansas City traded him to Miami in 2022.

Tens of thousands will be on hand to experience Hill’s homecoming and some of the harshest conditions ever recorded at an NFL game. Wind chill could reach -30, and the National Weather Service has declared it will be “dangerously cold” in Kansas City on Saturday night. That’s not exactly South Florida weather, and that could be playing a role in 62 percent of Splash pickers against the spread siding with the home team to cover the 3.5-point spread. Regardless, based on Splash users’ opinions, the Chiefs will go to the Divisional Round, and the Dolphins will have their season frozen in place, figuratively and perhaps literally.

No. 7 Pittsburgh at No. 2 Buffalo

Both the Bills and Steelers locked up their playoff invitations in the final week of the regular season thanks to hot streaks to close the campaign. Buffalo comes into this one with five wins in tow, while Pittsburgh carries a three-game run in its pocket. But only one can keep the magic going into the Divisional Round.

Splash users seem pretty sure of which side will smile when the clock reads zeroes. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites in this one, the widest line of the week, and 56 percent of Splash pickers against the spread expect them to get it done by 10 points or more. That leaves 44 percent who are willing to offer the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers, but how many of those believe in the visitors to actually win and not just lose by less?

Probably not enough to erase the message stated loud and clear: the AFC East champs will win this Sunday, advance to the Divisional Round for the fourth time in a row, and their Super Bowl goal will survive. Mason Rudolph isn’t enough for the Splash community to go against the favorites. Sorry, Steelers, better luck next year.

No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Dallas

Green Bay required a three-game streak of success to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 7 seed, while Dallas spent the later portion of its schedule aiming for the best seed possible. Now they both find themselves in the same place, though that place is a bit more agreeable to the plight of the Cowboys than that of the Packers.

There are plenty of storylines to latch onto in this one. These are two of the most historic franchises the NFL has to offer, and they have battled a time or two in some memorable and immensely important contests over the years. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy spent 2006 through most of 2018 as the head man in Green Bay, and this will be his second time coaching against his former club and first in Arlington. He will hope it ends better than the 2022 overtime loss did.

As far as the Splash masses are concerned, it will. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites this Sunday, and 66 percent of Splash pickers against the spread predict the margin to be wider than that. That is the most love that any playoff team gathered for their matchup this week, and in the face of Wild Card Weekend’s second-biggest line no less. If Splash users are sure of anything prior to the opening of the playoffs, it’s that we’re going to see the Cowboys come out at least one more time this winter.

No. 6 LA Rams at No. 3 Detroit

In 2021, the Lions and Rams agreed to swap quarterbacks. Since, Matthew Stafford led Los Angeles to its second-ever Super Bowl title and Jared Goff has redefined his career in Detroit, but the ultimate prize continues to elude him. This weekend at Ford Field, one of them will remain in play for 2024’s ring, and the other will start scheduling their tee times.

With a win percentage of .706, the 2023-24 regular season was Detroit’s best in 32 years. Coincidentally, that was also the last time the Lions advanced through a postseason affair, the longest active playoff win drought in the NFL. With nine playoff failures in a row, the Lions already own the lengthiest postseason losing streak in the league’s history.

I am 29 years old. In my entire lifetime, I have never seen the Lions win a playoff game, let alone host one. One of those streaks is guaranteed to end this Sunday. If the Splash users’ crystal ball is on point, then both will go down.

Bookmakers have given Detroit a 3.5-point edge in this showdown, and a majority of Splash pickers against the spread don’t think it’s enough. Detroit is expected to cover by 55 percent of the Splash community, something many Michiganers probably are having trouble conceiving, whether it’s sound or not. Get used to it, Lions fans, because it will soon be time to party like it’s 1991, at least in the reality Splashers foresee.

No. 5 Philadelphia at No. 4 Tampa Bay

The Eagles and Bucs have had opposite experiences this season. Philadelphia was 10-1 and appeared assured of one of the best seeds that the NFC has to offer. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was 4-7 through Week 12 and seemed destined to miss the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. Then the final weeks of the regular season happened - the Eagles sustained five falls in six outings to fall out of the NFC East’s top spot, and the Buccaneers put together five victories in six showings to summit the peak of the NFC South.

These teams have some recent history with one another. They collided at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3 of this season, which ended in a decisive 25-11 triumph for the travelers, and met in the playoffs two years ago, too. That one, also played in Tampa, went for the home team, 31-15.

Splash pickers against the spread see the Eagles exacting their revenge for 2021. Philly is favored by 2.5 points, and 63 percent of Splash users anticipate Nick Sirianni’s side to cover in what would be a boon for the embattled coach. That is the second-most support received by any of the 12 teams in action this weekend. You can pencil Philadelphia into the Divisional Round, according to the impulses of the Splash masses.

‍