What the Pick Data Says About NFL Week 11
We have surpassed the middle of the regular season. The descent to the playoffs is on, with plenty of dips, curls, and twists to come before the postseason’s opening snap. Some of those will strike in Week 11.
The Survivor entries are all over the place this week, with seven different teams garnering more than 8 percent each across the contests and no one side scratching the 20 percent spot in total support. The spreads are wider than usual, but some giant clashes that will resonate for weeks are on the docket, too.
As we do each week, we pulled the pick data from across RunYourPool, OfficeFootballPool, and Splash Sports to help evaluate what we might see in the NFL this weekend. If you want to see how Splash users did predicting Week 10, you can find that here.
Everybody Believes In…
The Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags were thoroughly outclassed last Sunday. A second-quarter field goal is all the points they could muster against the 49ers, Brock Purdy passed for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns and George Kittle did whatever he pleased as Jacksonville rolled over, 34-3, at EverBank Stadium.
That performance has lived short in the memories of the Splash universe, who are lining up to back the Jags in their home date with the Titans this week. Jacksonville is a 6.5-point favorite in the AFC South showdown, but that’s not nearly enough to Splash users – 74 percent of pickers against the spread went for the Jaguars to cover. Splash Survivor players are convinced that Jacksonville will bounce back, too, as 11.32 percent of all Week 11 entries are directed at the Jags. That’s the third-highest percentage of any of the 28 teams in action this week.
The Titans are a far cry from the Niners and have just one win in their last five times out. Before the San Francisco-sized blip, Jacksonville had slain five straight contestants. If Splash pickers are to be believed, those trends are scheduled to sustain.
Nobody Believes In…
The Denver Broncos.
One winning run is coming to a close at Mile High on Sunday night. The Broncos and Vikings are two of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment after both experiencing embarrassing opens to their 2023 campaigns. The last several weeks have been kinder to both, and now they meet for a pivotal midseason confrontation that could have major ramifications for which one can complete the full turnaround.
After starting 1-4, the Vikings have put together five Ws in a row, their victims including the 49ers, Falcons, and Saints, and Joshua Dobbs has excelled immediately in the starting role left vacant by the injured Kirk Cousins. To get here, Denver conquered the Packers and Chiefs at home before beating the Bills in Orchard Park to amass its three-game success streak and improve to a salvageable 4-5. Splash pickers are very sure that it ends here.
The Broncos are 2.5-point favorites at home, but 64 percent of Splash pickers against the spread went for the Vikings to overcome that margin, leaving the Broncos to cover with just 36 percent, one of the lowest percentages of the week among picks against the spread. In Survivor, 1.91 percent of all entries are aimed at Minnesota, making the Vikings one of 10 teams to have at least 1 percent of support this week. Denver attracted just 0.35 percent of all entries.
According to the Splash universe, the Vikings head out of Denver with six wins on the trot.
Possible Survivor Value Pick
The Seahawks and Rams have the tightest line of the week, with Seattle a slight 0.5-point favorite to win on the road. Most Splash Survivor players opted not to touch this contest, likely because of how close it appears on paper – just 0.41 percent of all entries went for the Seahawks, while 0.40 percent chose the Rams.
But Splash pickers against the spread are big on the Seahawks. Seven in 10 Splash users went for Seattle to cover a spread so small, that it’s effectively a straight-up selection for the road team to win. That’s the third-most lopsided picks against the spread among the 14 matchups of Week 11.
If Splash pickers against the spread are right, then the Seahawks are a fantastic value pick this week in Survivor. Seattle is 15th on the list, right in the middle of the stack, but with the top 10 teams soaking up 95 percent of all entries, anyone outside of that threshold is niche.
For those of you in a Survivor marathon where you have to make only one pick per week, maybe this isn’t a risk you’re willing to take. But if you’re in a Survivor Sprint situation, you need more than one pick. If you enter our Week 11 Splash NFL Survivor Sprint for the chance to win $6,000, then you have to pick three winners to see Week 12. These constraints may force you to go off the grid if you will – you can only pick the Cowboys so many times.
Too Close to Call
The Chiefs and Eagles are a combined 15-3 in the lead-up to their Super Bowl LVII rematch set for Monday night, and it’s possible that this midseason meeting could be a preview of another redo in Super Bowl LVIII. We’re still a long way away from that – the last time the same two teams made it back to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons was the Cowboys and Bills in 1993 and 1994 – but the prospect has certainly caught the curiosity of the football world. The best part? Nobody has any idea what’s going to happen.
Splash Survivor players wanted absolutely nothing to do with this game. The Chiefs received the fourth-smallest percentage of entries at 0.12, and the Eagles managed to be one of the three below them with 0.07 percent. That joint mark of 0.19 is far and away the tiniest of any Week 11 matchup and is down there with the best of them across the whole season.
The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites, a slight bump that can be attributed to the game’s location. Splash pickers against the spread slight their picks at an even 50 percent each way.
This is one of the least-clear games for Splash users in 2023. As if you weren’t already planning to, I recommend you keep an eye on what goes on at Arrowhead on Monday.
The Browns are 4.5-point favorites this weekend when the hated Steelers come to Cleveland for an incredibly important divisional dance. Both teams sit at 6-3, tied for second in the AFC North, a half-game back of the Ravens and one game ahead of the Bengals. Contests like these are the difference makers when playoff invitations are distributed.
Splash pickers against the spread laughed at this line. The Steelers picked up 68 percent of backing to overcome those 4.5 points, leaving the Browns with just 32 percent who believed they would cover. That’s by far the most resounding rebellion against a line this week. Survivor players didn’t seem to want much to do with either team, though the Browns did get more love than the Steelers (0.84 percent to 0.43 percent), another ominous sign for the home favorite.
Likely influential in these reactions from the Splash public is the announcement that Deshaun Watson will have shoulder surgery and miss the remainder of the season. The Browns have announced that rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a fifth-round pick out of UCLA, will start this Sunday against the Steelers.
Two great defenses, and two eye-bleeding offenses. Technically, something will have to give, even if it’s our souls.
Last week, the Cowboys relocated the Giants to Jupiter, 49-17, blasting by the massive 16.5-point spread laid out prior to kickoff. They aren’t being asked for as much to cover this week in their travels to Charlotte, and that has Splash pickers against the spread chomping at the bit.
Even in the face of a 10.5-point spread, Splash users chose Dallas at an 83 percent rate, much more than the 60 percent that thought the Cowboys would cover against New York. It is the second-most lopsided game against the spread as picked by Splash users in the entire season, only behind the 88 percent who picked the 49ers to cover 4.5 points in Cleveland in Week 4.
The Cowboys aren’t as big of a hit in Survivor this week as they were the last time around, which makes sense – anyone who took them in Week 10 is still eligible to be alive in their contest and is now unable to use them again. Unlike the roughly 40 percent that jumped on the Dallas bandwagon last week, the team gathered 9.84 percent of all Splash Survivor entries, the fifth-most of any outfit. Considering the context, that is quite the show of support.
The Panthers are the last one-win team remaining, while the Cowboys are a threat to make a run in the NFC portion of the playoff bracket. Splash pickers think you’d be better off taking a nap than staying awake through this impending snoozefest.
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