8 Can’t-Miss Matchups That Will Paint the NFL Playoff Picture

Three attempts are all each NFL team has left to elongate their seasons beyond the regular, but the outlooks vary wildly across the 32.

A few teams - the Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles - have already purchased their passes for the postseason; it’s just a matter of location and opponent for them now. Six others - the Titans, Jets, Patriots, Commanders, Cardinals, and Panthers - have already purchased their passes for Pebble Beach. Everyone else is in limbo, teetering between a shot at the Super Bowl and an early offseason.

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Not all of the 48 regular season games remaining in 2023 will impact the path to this year’s championship. If you have an interest in the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, then you might still feel inclined to lock in. But for the purposes of this piece, our sights are set on the Super Bowl.

These are the outings, all scheduled within the next three weeks, that will wield the most influence in shaping the final playoff picture. If you can only watch eight more games this season, make it these ones.

All times Eastern.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. (Week 16)

Heading into Week 16, the Browns are 9-5 and in the AFC’s top wild card position, and the Texans are one game back of them at 8-6. Houston is currently the conference’s first team out of the playoffs thanks to tiebreaker deficiencies to the Bengals and Colts. What better way to jump into a seeded spot than by pulling down a competitor directly within your reach?

The Texans could be without C.J. Stroud for the second week in a row, a possibility that tips the scales in further favor of the elite Cleveland defense. Head coach DeMeco Ryans told the media on Wednesday that Stroud’s season isn’t over, so there is a light at the end of the tunnel, especially if his team can escape this one if the quarterback can’t go. Case Keenum will have the keys if it comes to it.

Even with a loss, Houston would remain in the thick of the AFC South race, a three-way tie that bends the wrong way for the Texans. But a win transforms its ability to make the postseason with or without a division title. For Cleveland, a victory could elevate it two games clear of the drop zone, and if the Ravens fail to San Francisco, then it’s on for the AFC North. A divisional crown hasn’t come to town since George Bush Sr. walked the West Wing. This is a must-win if the Browns want to keep that goal alive.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers

When: Monday, Dec. 25 at 8:15 p.m. (Week 16)

The only two NFL teams with 11 wins at this stage of the season and the occupiers of the No. 1 seeds in each conference will both be on the same field in Santa Clara on Sunday. The Ravens and Niners have one-game leads in their respective race for the only byes available in the NFL Playoffs, and a loss could put some pain in the loser’s pursuit.

The Ravens are in an especially precarious position. They host the Dolphins in Week 17, the only team within one game of them in the AFC. A defeat to the 49ers would leave Baltimore vulnerable to falling a game behind Miami, a process that would hand the ‘Phins the head-to-head tiebreaker if it were to come to fruition. Plus, the Browns are just two games back of the Ravens and beat them in their last meeting - if there are cracks in the concrete, Cleveland is creeping to claw through.

The NFC East is much safer in San Francisco’s hands; the Niners are the division’s only outfit above .500 and have already clinched its pole position. The top seed is not locked, though, and with the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles all lurking at 10-4, a slip up could open the door for the challenger to burst through.

This cross-conference clash has a lot more meaning than most. Besides, it could reasonably be a preview of the Super Bowl, and who doesn’t want to watch that?

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

When: Saturday, Dec. 30 at 8:15 p.m. (Week 17)

Two of the teams nipping at San Francisco’s heels will square off at Jerry World in the penultimate week in a matchup that could determine the NFC East title, who owns the NFC’s bye, and where some playoff games will be played.

The Lions aren’t locked into the playoffs just yet, but ESPN’s FPI projects Detroit to have a greater than 99 percent chance to get there. Even though they’re the Lions, that’s enough for me to give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ll be in regardless of how this one goes. But seeding is important - imagine Ford Field for a playoff game, especially in later rounds. That’s an advantage that could make a difference if Detroit is to qualify for its first Super Bowl in franchise history.

The Cowboys and Eagles are neck-and-neck for the NFC East’s peak, and summiting that mountain means a lot more than pride. It’s a huge difference being the No. 5 seed rather than the No. 2 or No. 3, let alone No. 1. Goodbye, comforts of home. Any mistake between now and the end of the regular season for Dallas or Philly could doom them to enter the playoffs as a wild card, 12 wins or otherwise. The Cowboys can’t afford to lose, particularly to another competitor for the conference’s most favorable seeds.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. (Week 17)

The NFC South hangs in the balance.

It doesn’t matter that none of the division’s four teams have found a way to win more than they’ve lost through 15 weeks, one of this quad will not only be in the playoffs but put the show on themselves, at least to start. We know it won’t be the Panthers, but the Saints, Bucs, and Falcons are all still in play.

New Orleans and Tampa Bay are currently sharing the top spot, one game in front of Atlanta, but it’s the Bucs that hold the thin edge as the consequence of a 26-9 triumph over the Saints on Oct. 1 at the Superdome. To continue this arrangement, Tampa Bay needs to do it again at Raymond James Stadium. Dennis Allen needs the same thing for his team. Something has to give.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 1 p.m. (Week 17)

At present, these are the top two teams in the AFC, and in two weeks of action, they will have to settle the score on the gridiron. It could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game, or at least a playoff matchup, but it is certain to have a seismic impact on who earns the No. 1 seed.

Both teams have someone two games back of them in their divisional standings right now - the Browns for the Ravens, the Bills for the Dolphins - so they have some breathing room, but not enough to feel relaxed. Maybe things will be even better by Week 17, but there’s no changing what this game will mean for the AFC title sprint.

The Ravens have the Niners first, while Miami has Dallas over, two serious tests that will finish before this one begins. But with no more than two games separating them by the time they play, the bottom line at M&T will be about the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at TBD (Week 18)

The season started with the Bengals and Browns, and it’s going to end with the Bengals and Browns. Ohio’s pro football teams are both in the playoff hunt, and their clash on the final week of the regular season could go a long way in determining which, if either, make it out to the postseason.

Cincinnati lost the initial interaction, 24-3, on Sept. 10 in Cleveland, an alarming result that was only the beginning of its 2023 roller coaster. Joe Burrow played in that game, at least technically, but he won’t this time. This time, it’ll be Jake Browning who leads the Bengals in what could be a play-in pairing for the playoffs.

Cleveland has changed since that original victory, too. The team has experienced its own quarterback roulette, which settled on injecting old-timer Joe Flacco into the fray. He’s helped the Browns be more than just a defense. His efforts will be required for Cleveland to sweep its in-state rival, a feat that would put the Browns in a great spot to see the playoffs, even if their other two contests left don’t go according to plan.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at TBD (Week 18)

The Dolphins and Bills are the only AFC East teams still viable for the playoffs, and depending on how the next couple of weeks go, this matchup could be decisive for the divisional belt.

The AFC East has been Buffalo’s three years running, but Miami is a step away from ruining it. If the ‘Phins win in Week 16 and the Bills don’t, then the AFC East is wrapped up. But Miami’s remaining schedule is Dallas at home and at Baltimore before this date with Buffalo - that’s about as difficult a gauntlet to close a campaign as you could draw up. Meanwhile, the Bills will be at the Justin Herbert-less Chargers and at home against the Patriots, just about as friendly a conclusion as you could request. It will be easier said than done for the Dolphins to lock the division up in advance.

The Bills are playing their best ball of the season right now, and although the Dolphins hold a two-game lead on them at the moment, they should not feel comfortable. And regardless of if the division will be on the line come this Week 18 meeting, Miami is in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, something that might not be attainable without beating Buffalo. The Bills have playoff qualification anxiety of their own to tackle, too.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at TBD (Week 18)

Three teams are tied atop the AFC South at 8-6, and two of them will engage directly in the regular season’s final week. We’ll see where the Texans and Colts are in their quests for the divisional titles first and wild card invitations second, but it’s likely that they’ll both be alive for the playoffs in some capacity come Week 18.

Indianapolis erased Houston, 31-20, on Sept. 17 at NRG Stadium to relegate the Texans to 0-2, but that was a long, long time ago. Since then, the Texans are 8-4, and DeMeco Ryans has completely revolutionized once-hapless Houston. The Colts have had to overcome adversity, too, working for a while without Jonathan Taylor and having to make do with Gardner Minshew rather than rookie Anthony Richardson, whom the franchise selected No. 4 overall last April. Yet here they are, holding down the No. 7 seed if the playoffs began today.

But they don’t - those won’t start for another few weeks - and this game will take place first. Three of the four teams left on Indianapolis and Houston’s slates are currently below .500, making it more probable that everything will be on the line when the Texans are at Lucas Oil in a couple of weeks. Who doesn’t love a good divisional fight for a ticket to the playoffs?