Does Taylor Swift Shift NFL Odds?

By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast

Swift Line Movement

The biggest news of this early NFL season has nothing to do with action on the football field, it was one fan in red who happens to sing a bit sitting in a box at GEHA (Arrowhead) Stadium next to the mother of Chiefs Tight end Travis Kelce. It’s 2023 and things on the internet and in relationships move fast, so we’re under the assumption that there’s a romance in bloom that is breaking the internet with each passing day. Call it Swelce or Taytray or even Tayce (lame, I know), it’s the celebrity item you can’t get away from. On the heels of her two week Chiefs bender that continued to Metlife Stadium, it’s clear that this is a GO on this rom-com item in the making.

Some of the Swifties are learning football, while some NFL fans are quickly learning about Taylor Swift's influence on all things pop culture. As sports fans and pickers alike, naturally, our minds wander to how this power couple affects  lines and how we can predict what’s to come in this new couple’s future. Heck - we’re now even seeing weekly props on where she sits at games. I’m going to spare you the cheesy Taylor Swift song title puns and get right to the business at hand: is Taylor Swift moving lines now that she’s dating Travis Kelce?

Chiefs Odds to Win

While it could be attributed to last Sunday's thumping on the field of the Chicago Bears 41-10 or yesterday's close win against the Jets, there’s no denying that the Swift fan frenzy has probably brought more juice to the season of the defending world champs off the field. The Chiefs stumbled out of the gates in week one at home versus the Lions, and at that moment sportsbooks had their odds to win the Super Bowl in the 9-1 range, sitting comfortably behind a few teams. Now, after a pedestrian win vs the Jags, the onslaught of attention around them for the blowout win over the Bears, and the thriller at MetLife, they find themselves as the second favorite to win it all behind the 49ers at around 6-1 odds. I’m not sayin’...but I’m just sayin…are Swifties flooding the books to lay action on their new knight in shining armor? I’m attributing 70% of the line move to football, and the rest to the public hype generated around the team. I’ve never seen so many “how to make picks on football” tutorials put out to accommodate the droves of Swiftie fans.

Relationship Props

Naturally, since we’re a community of pickers drooling for another futures opportunity, lines quickly emerged regarding the relationship. If you’re thinking Taylor may rush into public displays of affection with her 18th boyfriend in 16 years, you’re actually disagreeing with Vegas - they’ve got Halloween night as the breaking point for betting on the first public kiss between the two. As for how long we think Taylor and Travis might last? Pertaining to the prop for “will the couple last beyond February 14th 2024?” The books say YES at resounding -140 odds. As pessimistic as many may be about this momentary fling, the early odds on the relationship have some duration attached to them. They’ve also got Taylor at 3-1 odds to be in attendance for this February’s Super Bowl LVIII in Vegas - barring that the Chiefs are in the game once again. How could you pick against romance?

The Swiftie Effect

One thing that nobody can deny is the influence of Swifties now that they have entered the NFL stratosphere and seem to be here for a while. Jersey and ticket sales are soaring for Kelce and the Chiefs, Sunday’s Chiefs-Bears game drew a record rating and future Chiefs games on the schedule are now selling seats they weren’t before. The fans have thrown their support behind their girl’s new guy, so will it all propel Travis to “New Heights” on the field? If there’s one angel to keep your eyes peeled on, it’s Travis Kelce TD and reception yard props in the weeks to come, because I’m willing to assume they could be highly inflated. Despite all the hype around him currently, he’s failed to hit yardage props in his first two games. While the TD catches have been there, the odds should get juiced with inflated action on the man who’s now the center of the football universe. Taylor Swift is absolutely having an effect on the betting lines that are driving prices up on the Chiefs.

Swift Plays

If you liked the Chiefs in the beginning of the season, you might as well keep picking them in your Pick X contests. As the relationship gets hotter and the Chiefs pile more wins, the price won’t get better.

This Sunday, if you’re a contrarian the UNDER on Travis Kelce’s receiving yards could be the play. The Vikings secondary is decent enough to reign him in for most of the game and let everyone else beat them on offense. He did not hit his touchdown or catch count props this past Sunday night in NYC.

You can even predict if a Taylor Swift lyric will contain the words “Travis,” “Chiefs” or “Football” this season. She’s great at subtle jabs or references so a +400 win could be in ours and the Swifties future if she puts her new relationship to pen.