Maximizing Your Edge: Understanding Leverage in Survivor Contests

This year has been an absolute bloodbath for Survivor. Over 73% of entries have been eliminated, which is more than double the average for week 2. 

But what if there was a way to be smarter about your Survivor pick? Sure, you could just take the biggest favorite and be done, but then you would have lost in Week 1. And Week 2. 

And don’t worry if you’ve been eliminated. We have a $50K Survivor Revival contest live to get you back in the action.

Introducing: Leverage.

What is Leverage?

In this case, leverage refers to the advantage from choosing the least popular team with the highest chance to win. By doing so, you position yourself to outlast a larger portion of the contest if your pick succeeds, while other popular choices fail.

How Do We Do That?

The keys to leveraging effectively lies in having two crucial pieces of information:

1. The percentage of contest participants who have chosen each team
2. The implied odds of each team winning, derived from sportsbook lines

Armed with this data, you can identify opportunities where a team with a solid chance of winning is being overlooked by the majority of participants.

Finding Your Leverage

Let’s look at money lines for Week 3. The Bengals, 49ers, and Buccaneers have the highest implied chance of winning (80% for the Bengals). 

But we know that picking the biggest favorite doesn’t always work out. Let’s look at which team is the most popular:

Combining the two, looking at the heaviest favorites, and the popularity of each team shows some striking differences.

Worst Pick: Raiders

The Raiders win the crown of worst pick this week. Despite having the 6th best odds chance of winning, they are the 2nd most popular pick, with more selections than the Bengals, who are the biggest favorite. 

Best Pick: 49ers

The 49ers look to be an excellent Survivor pick this weekend, with just the 8th most selections so far this week, despite having t-2nd best chance to win. If the Buccaneers and 49ers have an equal chance to win, and 7x more people take the Buccaneers, which team are you taking?

The Long Game

Remember, you have to last most/all of a season to win a survivor contest. While it might be tempting to always choose the safest option, strategically using leverage throughout the season can dramatically improve your odds of being the last one standing.

In a game where every week counts, understanding and applying the concept of leverage could be your ticket to survivor contest victory.