Week 12 Betting Preview: Cupcakes and Calamities

By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast

There’s two diametrically opposed themes as we peak ahead to week 12 of the CFB season, but both involve the top teams and where they sit in the battle for the four spots in the college football playoff. The calamity I referenced at the top is my descriptor for the current playoff scenarios at hand. I know, this thing tends to work itself out but I would contend that there’s more four team combinations still on the board in mid-November than in recent years. Not only do we have five unbeatens in power five conferences, we’ve got another four one-loss teams that could likely be playing in their conference championship games. 

Last weekend was close to chaotic, but all the top teams held serve in the end. With that, we’ve got a smattering of solid matchups to break down, but a few cupcakes that stick out on the board this Saturday. SEC powerhouses Alabama and Ole Miss will play Chattanooga and UL-Monroe respectively, while the 4th ranked Florida State Seminoles have Northern Alabama to beat up on. Could the cupcakes cool their playoff steam, or be the bye week they needed? Let’s get into the week twelve board to see how it could all shake out for the teams that are playing against…you know, actual competition:

Must Watch “Main Screen” Games

#2 Georgia @ #13 Tennessee (+10) - 3:30 pm ET - Just as we started to drop Georgia down the rankings, they’ve found another gear in recent weeks. With Brock Bowers back and Tennessee coming off a poor showing against Missouri, it’s going to be hard to talk anyone into betting the Vols this week. This line should finish near two touchdowns by Saturday.

#25 Kansas State @ #16 Kansas (+7) - 7 pm ET - A gem of an in-state rivalry that’s become more and more competitive in recent years. As has been the narrative with Vegas and forecasting the Jayhawks all season, they again get no love as a full score underdog at home. KU Running back Devin Neal surely is taking note of the line as motivation to torch the Wildcats’ defense. 

#18 Utah @ #21 Arizona (-1) - 2:30 pm ET - I’ve developed a good read on this Utah team as they’ve finally settled into Bryson Barnes being their QB. They put up a valiant effort against Washington and are always giving 100%. This matchup bodes well for them to take the finesse away from Arizona’s offense and get a win.

#5 Washington @ #12 Oregon State (-1) - 7:30 pm ET -  The PAC 12 continues to shine on this week’s card, and the challenges keep coming for UW. Simply put, the brutality of the PAC 12 schedule is weighing down on the Huskies, and this line shows it’s a toss up game in Corvallis.

#7 Texas @ Iowa State (+8) - 8 pm ET -  Quinn Ewers is back for the Horns at QB, but star RB Jonathan Brooks is gone for the season with a torn ACL. The Longhorns looked pedestrian and then stumbled home to a 3 point victory against TCU, and up comes another tricky road spot. The matchups are favorable on D for UT, but if Ewers wavers Ames could suddenly be a real tough place to get a win.

Tier Two “Second Screen” Games

Florida @ #14 Missouri (-11) - 7:30 pm ET - As the week's compound I find increased confidence in Mizzou QB Brady Cook. Last week’s dominant performance over the Vols brought it to another level. Florida doesn't appear to have the chops to hang score for score with Missouri here.

Minnesota @ #1 Ohio State (-27.5) - 4 pm ET - Wouldn’t this be an atom bomb on the CFP if the Gophers did the unthinkable? I’m just throwing it in case of madness, but we’ve seen crazier. The four scores is enough room for some fun if the Buckeyes get a little queasy and look ahead to the Michigan game too soon.

#24 UNC @ Clemson (-6.5) - 3:30 pm ET -  Dabo and Clemson are 2-0 since we called out an overly critical radio caller, and UNC is in decline as Drake Maye’s draft stock stays stagnant. I’m expecting a tough environment and a defensive game plan that limits Maye downfield, and the spread indicates renewed confidence in Dabo’s Tigers.

The “Tablet Game” Night Capper

San Diego State @ San Jose State (-14.5) - 10:30 pm ET - We’re back in the Mountain West for a couple of middling teams from Cali duking it out to end our Saturday spread - just glorious. Which “San State” team are you backing? I’ve seen enough of San Diego State to know they’re not worth my energy or money.

Week Twelve Plays To Watch

Georgia -10 - Shop now before the price goes up, no Black Friday bargain here

Kansas +7 - I’ll buy into the Jayhawks for this week in a big rivalry spot at home.

Utah +1 - Even in a loss they proved their griot against top tier offense.

Oregon State ML - Let the playoff scenario craziness get crazier.

Missouri - 11 - Brady Cook continues to shine for the Tigers!