NFL Conference Championships Fantasy Tiers Value Picks

Two games, four teams, 40 players. Choose wisely, and you could turn $10 into more than $400.

In the penultimate round of the NFL Playoffs, Splash is guaranteeing well over two grand in prizes to the top 50 finishers in our NFL $2.7K Championship Sunday Fantasy Tiers contest, open now until 3 p.m. Eastern this Sunday. The instructions are simple: pick one player from each of the four tiers, watch them accumulate massive amounts of yardage with some touchdowns on top, and count your compensation happily. Alternatively, you can pick one player from each of the four tiers, watch them fumble and flop, and stare longingly at your television, begging for even the tiniest glimmer of hope that you and your Vizio know will never come. 

But we don’t want that future for you. We know you were destined for something better. You know it, too. That’s why you’re here. You know there is no shame in asking for a little bit of help. Every Rocky needs his Mickey Goldmill.

I have pinpointed one player from each tier as the best value picks available. What does that mean? It means that I’m not going for the obvious guys. If someone is in the top three in projected points for their tier, I’m not including them. And in staying true to the game, I will not pick more than two players from any one team.

I’m looking only for the players flying under the radar who could break out in a way that most other entries might not see coming. Assuming those types of picks hit, they could be the difference in bringing home the bacon.

This isn’t to say that each of these players is the best in their respective tiers - Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk exist, but they won’t be featured in this article. I wouldn’t pick all four of the athletes listed below as your weekend’s representatives, but you might do well with the right one or two in your lineup.

Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Projected points: 17.89 (4th in tier)

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a nice time in the Divisional Round against the Bucs, leading the Lions in receiving yards with 77 via eight receptions, plus a touchdown. It was a solid follow up to his excellent performance in the Wild Card Round versus the Rams in which he turned nine targets into seven receptions and 110 receiving yards.

St. Brown has been Jared Goff’s preferred option all season long. In the regular season, he led Detroit in targets (164), receptions (119), receiving yards (1,515), and tied for first with Sam LaPorta in receiving touchdowns (10). Those trends have continued into the playoffs, and you can’t deny that St. Brown has elevated himself to one of the best fantasy receivers in the league.

The 49ers are 7-point favorites in the NFC Championship Game. Assuming the game goes as the books assume, the Lions are likely to be playing catch-up as the contest wears on. That means conserving clock and searching for big plays, and that means St. Brown is set up for another big day on the stat sheet.

Even in losses, St .Brown has had monster showings this season, like when he had 13 catches for 102 yards in Week 7 during the Ravens’ dismantling of Detroit, 38-6. His touchdown count drops significantly when the Lions lose, but his receptions per game stayed steady (7.5 in wins, 7.4 in losses).

If the Lions instead surprise bookmakers and are right in the game or even find a way to take control in Santa Clara, then St. Brown would still be in a positive position to produce. Detroit probably can’t get to the Super Bowl without taking full advantage of its Goff-to-St. Brown connection. Win or lose, Detroit’s best wideout should see his fair share of targets.

Plus, the Niners weren’t especially tough on wide receivers in the regular season. According to ESPN, San Francisco allowed opposing wideouts to amass an average of 34.5 points per game against it in PPR scoring. That was the 14th-most among the league’s 32 outfits. In all, the 49ers gave up an average of 214.2 receiving yards per contest in the 2023-24 regular season, the third-most in the NFL. San Francisco did better against the pass versus the Packers in the Divisional Round - the ground was the greater source of frustration on that day - but there is a wealth of data that predicts the opposite will be true this Sunday. That’s another check in St. Brown’s favor.

St. Brown is just outside of the top three projected point scorers in Tier 1, so I’m not letting you in on a secret here. But he will likely be less picked than a few others in the tier, like McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson, and if he goes off, it will give you an advantage on more of your adversaries than if the same happened with a more popular player.

Tier 2: Sam LaPorta

Projected points: 9.50 (5th in tier)

It’s been an okay start to life in the playoffs for Sam LaPorta, at least from an individual stat standpoint - I’m sure he wouldn’t complain about the 2-0 record. The rookie tight end caught all three of his targets and collected just 14 yards in the Wild Card Round against the Rams, but he did salvage the day with a touchdown in the middle of the second quarter. LaPorta couldn’t get back on the scoreboard again in the next round versus the Buccaneers, but he did rattle off nine receptions for 65 yards instead.

The link between Goff and LaPorta has been tight since the start. The Iowa product has caught at least one touchdown pass from the quarterback in more than 42 percent of their 19 total games together, and only St. Brown eats up more of the team’s action through the air than LaPorta. Remember everything I just said about the potential game script for this one? If the Niners clean up like they are expected to, then a lot of balls will be force-fed to Goff’s second-favorite target in an effort to move down the field as quickly as possible. But even if that doesn’t happen and the Lions stick with San Francisco throughout, they won’t get there without maximizing their aerial attack. LaPorta isn’t as probable to benefit for any of this as St. Brown is, but he is next in line to feast in these conditions.

Fantasy wise, the 49ers were more stringy against tight ends than wide receivers in the 2023-24 season. Their average of 11.0 points allowed per game in PPR scoring was just outside of the league’s top 10, and the 0.2 touchdowns per game they provided opponents lined up at the position isn’t something for LaPorta pickers to be excited about. San Francisco still gave up the third-most passing yards per contest in the league, and its defense’s score rate of 33.9 came in at 20th. The Niners also allowed opponents to score on 54.5 percent of their red zone trips, which placed them almost dead in the middle of the NFL in that stat.

More context paints a worse picture, though: the 44 times San Francisco let its opposition into the red zone was the second-least in the league in the regular season. There are reasons why playing LaPorta is risky, and you should know that before you tie yourself to him. But I think he is in a good position to tally targets and maybe even see paydirt. LaPorta is my top Tier 2 choice, if you take the top three projected scorers out of the mix.

Tier 3: Isaiah Likely

Projected points: 2.75 (10th in tier)

Isaiah Likely is projected to be the lowest scorer in the third tier, but I have much higher expectations for the Ravens tight end, assuming Mark Andrews continues to be out.

Andrews hasn’t played since experiencing a right ankle injury in Baltimore’s Week 11 meeting with the Bengals. He practiced in full late last week prior to the Ravens’ tussle with the Texans but was ultimately left on IR and did not feature in the game. Andrews is eligible to be reactivated, but whether or not he will see the field in the AFC Championship Game is still in doubt.

My support for Likely hinges on Andrews staying on the sideline. In the normal starter’s stead, Likely has put up 23 receptions, 356 receiving yards, and six touchdowns, and he’s reached the end zone four times in the team’s last three games. He’s seeing more than enough love from Jackson to be a viable play this week if Andrews doesn’t go, especially in Tier 3.

Another nice stat in Likely’s favor is his 10.3 receiving yards per target, which ranks second among Ravens receivers who are still on the active roster (sorry, Melvin Gordon). When Jackson does look Likely’s way, the tight end is one of the best in Baltimore at converting it into bundles of yards.

There could be a reason to run with Likely even if Andrews is active. Andrews could be used as more of a decoy if he’s not fully ready to carry as much of a burden as he normally would, plus the Ravens may still want to give some focus to their hot hand. After all, Likely has entered the end zone in 75 percent of his starts this season, including the playoffs. That isn’t usually the sort of player that teams want to turn away from when it’s January.

Kansas City did well at holding tight ends to tiny fantasy outputs this season, only offering 10.6 points per game to opponents at the position this season (tied for 9th-best), and the risk associated with Likely grows exponentially if Andrews suits up. If you want to play it safe with your Tier 3 pick, Josh Reynolds and Odell Beckham Jr. are right there waiting for you.

But keep an eye on the Ravens tight end. Maybe wait to submit your Fantasy Tier entry until there is more clarity surrounding Andrews. LIkely is one of the hottest players on any of the four teams that will be laying it all out for Super Bowl invitations this weekend, and he’s been a touchdown machine for two months. The miniscule projection he has this week in Splash Fantasy Tiers must be a hedge that Andrews will be back, but it should do a good job of scaring off enough entry-makers that Likely pickers will get a massive leg up on a healthy chunk of the competition.

Tier 4: Dalvin Cook

Projected points: 0.95 (5th in tier)

At this point, you’re looking at wide receivers and tight ends who have attracted single-digit targets all season long and running backs sat back in the depth chart. It is guaranteed that several in this group will be duds. Some may not even score a single point. Your goal is to find one of the few who will score a touchdown or at least contribute a handful of points by other means. If you hit the right one, it can be a huge boon toward your spot in the final standings.

The Ravens signed Dalvin Cook to their 53-man roster shortly before the team’s Divisional Round showdown with the Texans. In that game, the former Vikings standout had eight carries for 23 yards.

It was far from Cook’s best outing of his career. After he took off for 19 yards on his first touch, he managed only four more the rest of the game. But he received more than 25 percent of Baltimore’s handoffs and had just two fewer carries than Gus Edwards.

Given that all of his touches came in the fourth quarter after the game was in hand, it’s probable that Cook won’t have that many opportunities unless the Ravens are putting a similar hurt on the Chiefs late in the day this weekend. If you think Kansas City will keep it close, then I wouldn’t suggest selecting Cook, especially given how good the Chiefs have been against the run this season. But if you think this Baltimore team will maintain the same dominance its best has displayed for weeks now, then you might expect to enjoy some garbage time production out of the Ravens’ third running back.