NFL Contenders and Pretenders for Week 5

Entering Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season, the better teams in the league are beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit and San Francisco were all expected to be contenders in 2023. Indianapolis and Tampa Bay we can perhaps chalk up as surprise leaders in weak divisions.

But which of these division leaders is a legit contender and which has a Week 5 matchup you can rely on to help you win your weekly Pick X contests on Splash? Let’s get into it!

AFC East - Jacksonville (2-2) @ Buffalo (3-1)

Buffalo sits atop of the AFC East based on their convincing 48-20 Week 4 victory over the division rival Miami Dolphins. That caps a three week winning stretch in which the Bills scored 123 points while only giving up 33 (+90 pt. differential). Jacksonville is technically third in the AFC South, but has the same 2-2 record as the division-leading Colts. The Bills just bullied a very good team, they are at home again this week, and look like they have found their groove now. Based on that momentum, I can’t call this one any other way. Pick the Buffalo Bills.

AFC North - Baltimore (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)

Baltimore, with a +41 point differential on the season, easily handled the Cleveland Browns in Week 4 to climb to 3-1 and a half game lead over the Steelers, whom they will face this week. Meanwhile, the Steelers have been blown out twice (by the 49ers and Texans), while winning one score games against the Browns and Raiders, for a -38 point differential. This will be a tough, physical AFC North game - it may even stay close into the fourth quarter - but the better team is clear based on the data. Pick the Baltimore Ravens.

AFC South - Tennessee (2-2) @ Indianapolis (2-2)

While they both sit at 2-2, Indianapolis is technically in first place in the AFC South, while the Titans are in fourth. The Colts are coming off a tough loss to the Rams that went down to the fourth quarter. The Titans, on the other hand, made light work of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 with a 27-3 drubbing. I love Anthony Richardson and I think Zack Moss is a good back in the Colts system. Then I think of Derrick Henry and the fact that this will be the Titan’s first division game of the season. I hope the Colts surprise me, but my pick goes to the competition. Pick the Tennessee Titans.

AFC West - Kansas City (3-1) @ Minnesota (1-3)

Kansas City, the defending league champ, has a +41 point differential on the season, and an offense featuring Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs look good. Minnesota, the defending NFC North champ, picked up its first W of the season in Week 4 with a one score victory over the winless Carolina Panthers, who disappeared in the second half. The Vikes look bad. These two teams are not on the same level. Even Taylor Swift is smart enough to figure this one out. Pick the Kansas City Chiefs.

NFC East - Philadelphia (4-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

Philadelphia is off to a workmanlike 4-0 start but not a spectacular one, with three of their season to date victories coming by 6 points or less, and all vs. suspect teams (Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders). The Rams are off to a better start than most expected, and have found something in a revitalized Matt Stafford vibing with 2023 WR phenom Puka Nacua. I think the Rams will make a game of it in front of their hometown crowd but I can’t pick against these Eagles right now. Pick the Philadelphia Eagles.

NFC North - Carolina (0-4) @ Detroit (3-1)

The Lions got a big win last week, making the Green Bay Packers look average on TNF at Lambeau Field -- this was a significant hurdle for Detroit to clear early in the season. Despite their record, Detroit’s scoring has been a little inconsistent and the defense can go from looking very active to very average in a hurry. At 0-4, Carolina is in a rebuilding year and they will look that way for the rest of the season. On paper, this is not much of a matchup, but let’s remember, the Lions found a way to lose on the road to the Panthers last season when it mattered. I think they’ll get their revenge at home in Week 5. Pick the Detroit Lions.

NFC South - Tampa Bay (3-1) (bye)

The Tampa Buccaneers are off this week but hold a 3-1 lead in the division based on victories over the Vikings, Bears and Saints (their only loss was to Philadelphia, 25-11, in Week 3). That leaves the door open in Week 4 for Atlanta to get back into contention for the division lead with a win over the hot Houston Texans. Meanwhile, the third place New Orleans Saints will try to get off the schneid and close the gap on the Bucs with a road trip to visit the New England Patriots. I expect by the time Week 5 is all said and done, the Falcons will be a half game closer to Tampa Bay for leadership of the NFC South, setting up the scheduled Week 6 contest between those two teams as a key game.

NFC West - Dallas (3-1) @ San Francisco (4-0)

After getting humiliated by Arizona in Week 3, the Cowboys once again flexed their muscles and found their form in Week 4 against the struggling New England Patriots. The Cowboys have a +83 point differential on the season but it’s all smoke and mirrors -- they just made punching bags of a few weak teams. The San Francisco 49ers, on the other hand, are as legit as you get. The 49ers don’t have triplets on O, they have a quintet. Their D is superb and their kicking game is as steady as they come. Hear me loud and clear Dallas fans: there’s no way the Cowboys win this game. Pick the San Francisco 49ers.