Survivor Clean Slate Week 4: Pretend It Never Happened

In your heart of hearts, you knew that the Cowboys would corral the Cardinals, or maybe it was the Jaguars over the Texans that had you nodding in satisfaction. Perhaps an Anthony Richardson-less Colts convinced you of a coming failure in their travels to Baltimore.

You watched in horror as your locked-in fact agonizingly backslid to fiction, the wickedness of a world filled with this much uncertainty an ever-growing burden to bear. Is nothing as it seems?

Yes, and it’s why you’re getting a second chance. You thought it was all over, but you can reassimilate into regular NFL Survival life with a clean slate as if it never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.

We’re three weeks in, and only about 30 percent of the original entries from our Week 1 Big Blue Survivor contest are intact, plus many more casualties site-wide. Splash doesn’t want the masses to go hungry, so NFL Survivor Revival is available with a $10,000 prize attached. Better luck this time.

If you are part of the nearly three-fourths of the population that finds itself starting from square one, you need a new plan of action. That’s where I come in.

Depending on your strategy, I have a suggestion for the direction of your Week 4 reclamation. Not everyone approaches survivor the same way. I want to offer an angle for each type of player.

If You Want Guaranteed Safety…

Go for the 49ers over the Cardinals. Every week, Splash provides a Lock of the Week, guaranteeing a survivor revival player’s money back if they pick that team and it loses. Join our Survival Revival contest, pick the Niners, and if they lose, you'll get refunded for one of your entries! Our Lock of the Week has hit all three times so far. In Week 4, San Francisco has our trust.

The Niners have been outstanding to start the season. They rank in the top four of the NFL in offensive and defensive yards per game and steamrolled their opponents by a combined 90-42 in the first three weeks. San Francisco has won 14-straight times as the favorite, which it’ll be when Arizona comes to Santa Clara on Sunday. It’s early, but calling the 49ers a Super Bowl contender is an acknowledgement of reality.

Last week, the Cardinals pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, defeating Dallas, 28-16, in the face of a 12.5-point spread. They’ve also been competitive in each of their losses, holding leads in both games until their eventual collapse. There is some reason to believe that Arizona could be more trouble than expected for its divisional opponent.

But if you pick the 49ers, you won’t have to worry about that. If the Cardinals register a second seismic upset in a row, you’ll have your money back and can hop back in next week having lost nothing. There’s no safer way to go than San Francisco.

If You Want the Week’s Next-Biggest Favorite…

The 49ers are the week’s biggest favorite, but if you want to save them for future use while still choosing a popular pick, then you want the Eagles over the Commanders.

One of the three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, Philadelphia has excelled thus far. The team’s ground attack has been especially potent, ranking second in the league in yards per game at 185.7. The Eagles defense has also been one of the most proactive in forcing turnovers, particularly fumbles, with eight takeaways to its name.

There have been bright spots for the Commanders in this young campaign, but defending the run and taking care of the ball have not been two of them. Washington is middling when it comes to stopping the run, and it’s committed the second-most turnovers of any team in the NFL. This is not a good recipe for success in general but it’s even worse against these Eagles, and that’s before factoring in the stinginess of Philadelphia’s front seven.

Sam Howell threw four interceptions and Antonio Gibson lost a fumble in the total unraveling the Commanders suffered at home to the Bills on Sunday. That is not a promising sign for what’s to come for them in Philadelphia this weekend.

If You Want a Value Pick…

Consider the Vikings over the Panthers.

Maybe you don’t want to pick the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, or any of those teams commonly expected to get the job done week-in and week-out. You want a value pick now to save the perennial favorites for another time. It’s a riskier move, but greater risks can chrysalis greater rewards.

I know what you’re thinking: “Justin, the Vikings are winless, they can’t stop fumbling the ball, and they’re averaging just 66.3 rushing yards per game. Why would you ever suggest anyone put any faith in them at all, you idiot?” First off: rude. Second of all: those are valid points.

But I raise you this: Minnesota’s downfall has been, even more than its lifeless ground game, turnovers, specifically fumbles. The Vikings have moved the ball down the field very well despite little rushing threat, sitting third in the NFL in offensive yards per game (406.0). The problem is, their league-leading nine turnovers have done a good job of keeping many of those yards from converting to points. Fortunately for the Vikings, the Panthers defense has not been great at forcing turnovers – it has two takeaways to its name thus far, both interceptions.

The quarterback situation in Carolina is confusing, with Andy Dalton filling in for the injured Bryce Young in Week 3 and potentially doing so again in Week 4. Neither are amazing options for the Panthers, with the rookie still adjusting to life in the NFL and Andy Dalton being, well, Andy Dalton. But one of those guys will line up under center, and it’ll be a reprieve for a Minnesota defense that’s had to face Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert in back-to-back weeks.

The Panthers defense has been solid against the pass, which is the main avenue the Vikings have exploited for any success they’ve seen in 2023. This is a potentially concerning detail. But Carolina has the worst run defense Minnesota has played yet this season. Something will have to give there, too.

The truth is, neither of these teams are very good, but one of them has to win on Sunday. The likelihood that you’ll want to pick the Vikings later on in the season is low, while the Niners and Eagles will be two names floated as favorites in most weeks. If you want a safer pick, go for San Francisco or Philadelphia. If you want to live life on the edge and subject yourself to some 0-3 versus 0-3 football, then you know what to do.